THE MYTH OF THE 'BIG STRIKE'

I have a very cordial relationship with a prominent bookmaker. Because I regard myself as something akin to a 'mug punter' when it comes to local horseracing I can usually 'get on' for almost any amount I desire. I almost never back odds on or short priced favourites so, in many cases, it allows him to 'field up' on horses that are not that much in demand. I also do not ask for big bets on any but the major races where there is a reasonable amount of national activity.

Given the above I decided to do a little experiment on the Met. I randomly picked a horse that I fancy based on preparation, price and a couple of other variables. I am not connected to any yard nor do I ( thankfully ) 'know anything'. It's the way I have always played and am still here after 42 years. Simply put...I am GUESSING. Just like most of the rest of you. Lol.

The results are absolutely laughable and a sorry contradiction to the myth that one might get rich if you ever found a lurker. Let's summarize my experience :

The horse in question is Hot Ticket in case you are curious. It matters nought to me.

He is a solid performer from the Kannemeyer yard and probably a few pounds short of being a likely Met winner. He is a marginal case to even make the final lineup. On all known form he is an outsider in every sense of the word. Those are the facts and they are not madly encouraging if you are playing to wager your last R10. Happily racing produces just enough winners from these types to return a verdict of 'not impossible' but 'unlikely'.

Using Interbet as my chosen medium for this experiment it has taken me since 23/12 to place bets TOTALLING R1,829 on the above horse. My position is now R 107,840 - R 1,829. Most of the bets successfully struck were for R42 on! Wow - there are some really big layers out there! To say nothing of the reality that I appear to have singlehandedly reduced its odds from 100/1 down to 40/1 by virtue of wagers totaling a piddling R1,829.

When I started racing a top-of-the-line Mercedes Benz cost just under R10,000 and it was entirely possible to win this kind of money from any number of bet types on a Saturday afternoon without having to land 'Act Of God' bets. Nowadays this vehicle will cost you well over R2 million which you definitely WILL NOT win in one strike from your local bookmaker. And winning it on the tote would require results that defy logic and form study.

So it would seem the only way to 'win money' would be by employing the grinding method of squeezing out small profits from big turnovers. And don't make that habitual or your account will be summarily closed!

Good post Garrick , I have decided to join the UK bookies at their own game..

Because they have decided to limit me at every opportunity , I have reacted and done the same to them and fixed my deposit limits..

So now when I or if I ever have a strike I do it with cash on a shop floor

Another cracker Garrick