I find the first 4 races in the PA very open and the last 3 'easier'; Leon Erasmus sends out what looks like half his yard - not sure if that's desperation, or whether he hopes to clean up :S thoughts:
R2: Not too difficult imo ; the first timer Matadora does not have to be a star to win this, of the raced runners I think Latino Ice is the right one, followed by Calyso Ice / Bridge Too Far
R3: As stated earlier, I make Royal Stock the value, but obvious chances to Tornado Twister and Global Talk; Jimmijagga comes off a good last run on the turf and depending on if he takes to the sand, he could feature; Manzai also a sand debutante, so hard to know how he will go; place chances to Son of Approval and Sirocco Bay
R4: Pinnacle Plate but I find it difficult due to the fact that both She's a Stunner and Alcanina are making their debuts on the sand - so anything possible; most of the others with the exception of Brave Princess who looks badly off form, has shown enough to pick up the pieces should the top 2 fail
R5: Another very competitve handicap; be easier to mention those that I don't fancy which would be Jumbo and Dream Leader; I think an upset not out of the question, but if I have to put forward one horse that I think will go close, I'll side with Vulcan
R6: Again many with chances; of the longer priced runners that for me could provide some value, I'd consider The Professor (ran a close 5th on the turf on Tuesday, so could improve more this surface) and Victory Call (finished in front of Secret Pledge last time and still has a small weight advantage)
R7: Very interesting race; I have Inventive Girl running to an 84 last time, so she looks like the proverbial penalty kick at the weights here; BUT also I have Crystal's Revenge running to an 80, so from a better draw she could make IG work hard - at the weights, these 2 stand out for me
R8: Another match race imo; Mauri Blue ran a good race over this 1800 behind Henry Higgins (right next to Mutthia Pillai who came out to wn twice after that) so MB has a big chance again; only question is whether the handicapper got his sums right in terms of Ajuba, in which case it could be close between the two - however although Ajuba won over the 1800, he beat a very weak bunch and I just have a suspicion that he may be better over 1600 :S
R9: Tipsy Trip another who for me is thrown in at the weights - I have her running to an 81 when beating Crystal's Revenge last time out - she takes on a real moderate lot of fillies and mares imo and should be hard to beat; I found the same 'idiot' as Englander in Run Girl Wild, who could surprise at huge odds if she takes to the sand
Enjoy (tu)
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