Storm surf race 8

I think this horse is worth opening a thread for. He is mr 57 on the turf altho won and was highest rated over 75. His sand rating is 96 and ran 3.3 l behind In A. rash in the emerald cup. Is he a certainty??

distance today would make me pause.

Maybe not quite the way you are looking at it but in my simple approach... trainer perhaps a little flat at the moment, widest draw, going further than ever before, uninspiring turf form and comes off a short break. Could well win but one to look elsewhere for me.

not sure why therating has dropped so much is it an error? has the horse been dropped 12 points instead of 6?


Layoff Allowance
Horses 4 year old older where no WFA is applicable to receive up to a maximum of 3 rating points for being off 210 days and 5 rating points for 365 days and more. Horses placed in a graded race at their last start may receive an allowance at the discretion of the handicapper but not exceeding 5 rating points.
Retrospective assessments of a horse’s last start when returning from a layoff also to be utilized when making a rating adjustment.
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Sand and Turf Ratings
1.
Sand and Turf ratings will be treated independently of one another, once established. (Wins and places are cumulative on both surfaces).
2.
A horse must run at least three times on both surfaces before it qualifies to have dual ratings, however the handicappers must be satisfied that there is a discernable difference between the two ratings.
3.
Should a 2 or 3-year-old horse which has form on one surface go on to show improvement on another surface, it is reasonable to assume that the horse has improved with maturity. If the rating goes up on one surface the rating on the other surface may increase at the discretion of the handicapper.
4.
When a horse with 10 or fewer starts goes from one surface to another and shows a 10 ratings or more improvement on the other surface, the rating on the other surface may be adjusted to 50 % of the difference between the two ratings when next nominated on the other surface.
5.
Should a horse be absent from a particular surface for a period of more than six months, the lesser of the two ratings may lapse. A return to the other surface after this time will necessitate a reassessment at the handicappers’ discretion.
6.
The handicappers reserve the right to use the higher rating on the inferior surface should a horse have made improvement over a different aptitude, gelding , equipment change etc.
7.
A horse returning from a layoff will retain both ratings.
8.
210 day layoff allowance will apply to both ratings to the date of last run.
9.
Margins on the Vaal Sand to be treated at 75 % of normal length/ distance factor. (1/2 margins apply to Kimberley).

considering his last turf runs i wouldnt touch him at 16 to 10 but if he was 8 to 1 and considering his sand form yes would have a spec bet ...the question you have to ask is has the trainer found something out about him that has made him improve so much or is he simply so much superior on the sand....

according to the rules above, there is no reason for the MR drop?

Evidence suggests to me Pirates, though obviously can't be 100% sure as you say, that he is just a better horse on the sand... with you on his turf form and won on his first two runs on the sand.

i recall a horse woman of the year where mr magner made good use of the dual rating rules and she won on both surfaces

The answer to the question is,in simple form...."if he converts the sand form to turf the answer is a big yes"

Whether he will is a matter of opinion, but even if he is 5 lengths worse on turf than on sand ,theoretically he still wins,so it's dangerous to brass him!

but why the drop in ratings guys?

pirates Wrote:

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> i recall a horse woman of the year where mr magner
> made good use of the dual rating rules and she won
> on both surfaces

even pylon another example..and henry higgans

when greyville has its polytrack in use will raiding gauteng horses that have vaal sand form race off their vaal sand ratings or their grass ratings?vaal sand and greyville polytrack very different surfaces...