Must be mad after last week's "Massacre of the Punters"... and if this week turns into a sequel then the way i feel just now, no chance of these being repeated in the future!! lol (THH where be you?)
RACE 1 - 1200 Maiden
1 BRASILLIA - Tarry/Strydom. Sand debut. Possible problems after a fair start to career with two consecutive 19 week breaks. Obviously a combo to be respected but the sand debut and 2 breaks are sufficent for me to just do a watching brief.
2 LESLEY STRONG - Fair sand debut when a 1.35l 3rd over c/d in penultimate outing, though was perhaps not the strongest of sand maidens. Usually thereabouts and though certainly has a chance, for me it is likely to be a similar story again, thereabouts without winning.
3 SON OF APPROVAL - Was 0.4l behind LS on sand debut three runs back when returning from a 10 week break and on sand reappearance lto was a strong finishing 2nd over 1000. Obviously closely matched with LS and has similar chances, of the two I have a slight preference for SOA given that when they met he was returning from a rest. Not the best draw in 8 but LS is in 7.
4 ARABIAN APPROVAL - Lucky H/Mienie. Sand debut. Reasonable but nothing special in his 4 turf starts and nothing in the breeding to indicate to me he will definitely take to the surface. On second run after a 13 week rest but does have a decent draw in 4. Watching brief.
5 SELAZAR - GVZ. Possibly inconsistent but has 3 places in 5 c runs including a 2nd and 3rd in his two c/d runs. Is on 3rd run after a 17 week rest, has an appie taking a little weight off and drawn well in 2. Of those with c experience I think he may go best here.
6 SIAMESE FIGHTER - No top 3s in his 5 c runs but probably improved when just 1.95l behind SOA lto over 1000. Prior to that though was 5.75l behind Selezar over this d. No obvious reason why that form should be overturned.
7 FORT GOSSAMER - Govender/Khumalo. Sand debut. Not the most inspiring turf form with just one 3rd in 10 runs but the breeding does suggest a decent chance that he will take to the surface and blinkers are tried. Trainer and jockey both in some form but the 9 draw could pose a challenge.
8 IMPECCABLE - No top 3s in 6 c runs and another who looks held by both SOA and Selezar. Good draw in 3 but had the same draw when 5l behind Selezar.
9 DRAVIDIAN - Sand debut. Beaten 19+l in both turf starts, nothing in the breeding suggests to me that miraculous improvement will come on the sand and is drawn 11.
10 FLAMMING LIGHT - Woodruff/Fradd. Sand debut. Respected combo but he was beaten 18l on his only start on the turf when slow away. Nothing in the breeding to imply he will definitely take to the surface and is drawn widest of all. He was though backed in from 16/1 to 9/2 on debut which implies there could be some ability there.
11 PROUD DEPUTY - Magner/Herholdt. Sand debut. Drawn in 1 but well beaten in both turf starts and nothing to indicate he will improve dramatically on the sand.
12 SANDILE - Lucky H/Maujean. Debut. Breeding suggests a good chance this one will take to the surface and Lucky has sent out a couple of sand debutants in the last couple of months who have performed well. With a better draw I would have been keen and even so, not one to be discounted.
13 RISING TIGER - Reserve. No top 3s in 7 c runs and beaten well beaten in recent runs. If that were not bad enough, he is also drawn 12.
Tricky opener with a few possibles. Flamming Light could show a lot of improvement, Son of Approval was running on well over 1000 and he is closely matched with Lesley Strong over 1200. Selezar though, from a good draw, is my marginal choice of those with c experience. I am tempted by the sand debutants, Fort Gossamer and particularly Sandile. Will check the prices but with the draw playing a big part, at the moment the instinct is to go SELEZAR x SANDILE x SON OF APPROVAL
RACE 2 - 1000 PINNACLE - Won't be backing it at the likely very short price but Contador looks hard to beat to me. Plenty options for the places but I'll go with...
CONTADOR x ACROSS THE ICE x ESCAPE CLAUSE x NICE STRIDE
RACE 3 - 1200 MAIDEN
1 MERLINS GEM - Disappointed lto when short favourite following a decent 2nd in her penultimate run, her 3rd on c. That middle run was a poor maiden though and off a 9 week break and going from draw 13, for me she has work to do here.
2 ROLLING RUBY - Matchett. After 4 turf runs, she returns to the sand which does appear to be her preferred surface. Not beaten more than 5.35l in her 4 c runs over 1000/1200. Though not particularly strong maidens and a somewhat tricky draw here in 8, jockey and trainer are in form and the stable does "shock" on occasion. Has a chance.
3 LADY CASEY - Moffatt. Seems to be improving with racing and followed up a well beaten 3rd in her 2nd run with a 1l 3rd at this d lto. As with others though, those do not appear the strongest of maidens and she has draw 14 to overcome here. Chance if so doing.
4 THE IT GIRL - Although her overall c stats do not look particularly inspiring, the poorer efforts came over further and with some poor draws to contend with. Over c/d she has a 2nd and 3rd from her 2 runs and gets a good draw in 3 here. Chambers up and not beaten more than 4l in her last 4 outings (turf/sand). From her last c/d run, a 2.5l 3rd, the winner went in nto and the 4th and 5th have also won since. Should be in the mix.
5 FOXY ICE - Sand debut. A good draw in 2 but achieved little in 5 turf runs and nothing in the breeding implies to me she will improve dramatically on the sand.
6 HAMEEYA - Pettigrew/MVR. Sand debut. A couple of fair efforts in her 4 turf runs and represents a combo to be respected. Nothing in the breeding to indicate she is likely to go better on the surface but I suspect she might, even if she does though she may find this difficult from draw 10 and off a 10 week break. Watching brief.
7 MOON FROST - Govender/Khumalo. Only one 3rd in 15 runs and well beaten over c/d in only c run. That run came off a 9 week rest and a little in the breeding suggests she might improve on that but a tricky draw in 9 to contend with and not one with strong enough appeal to tempt me to chance her.
8 IN FULL FLO - Has 6 top 3s in her 26 runs and seemingly not in the best form of late though has had some tough draws of late. 2nd and 3rd most recent runs were her only 2 runs on the sand and was poorly drawn in both. The second of which she was beaten 26l over 1450 but the previous effort over c/d was much better, beaten 4.5l when drawn 10/12, 3.5l behind LC. Although that was perhaps not a strong maiden, she is much better drawn here in 5 and for me there is a small idiot potential based on that first sand run, awaiting prices.
9 RAINBOW WARBLER - Soundly beaten in all runs, including 4 on c, and with the 12 box here there is no reason to suppose that she will suddenly improve the many lengths required to win here.
10 BRAVE MANEQUIN - Magner/Herholdt. Sand debut. Heavily beaten in both turf runs and though the second of those was over much further and reported not striding, there nothing in the breeding to suggest she will improve greatly for the change of surface, particularly from the 11 box.
11 COSIMCOOLERTHANYOU - SJG. Sand debut. Well beaten on turf debut but the breeding suggests there is a good chance she will improve on the sand, drawn in 7 and depending on the price could be worth an interest. Runs on Tuesday. Update... was running on nicely and boosted confidence but unfortunately led to the horse going from 20s to 8s.
12 QUEEN OF JUSTICE - Tarry/Strydom. Sand debut. Powerful combo but weakened in both turf efforts and nothing in the breeding says to me she will definitely enjoy the surface, if she does though she will be in a with a chance from a good draw in 4.
13 TORMENTRESS - Reserve. On 3rd run after a rest and drawn 1 but only once beaten less than double figure lengths in 7 runs, including 24l and 17.5l defeats in her 2 c runs.
14 HAPPY PLACE - Reserve. Usually well beaten and that was true of her two sand runs to date. Hard to find anything to recommend her.
Another with plenty of possibilities but hard to nail down one that is likely. There are a couple of potential big priced ones which could be worth a small interest with In Full Flo and, of more interest to me, Cosimcoolerthanyou (sadly not a big price now!). There are also a few potential improvers who could surprise in Hameeya, Moon Frost and Queen Of Justice. The first four all have form that give them a chance but of those, for me, The IT Girl makes most appeal and, on balance, seems the "safe" bet here... THE IT GIRL x COSIMCOOLERTHANYOU x ROLLING RUBY
RACE 4 - 1600 MAIDEN
1 DRAGON FAY - Magner/Herholdt. After a string of close misses has seemingly thrown in the towel in his last three runs. Returns from an 11 week rest (had 12 week rest three runs back), was 2nd in only attempt over c/d and has a 3rd from his two other c runs but has not been within 12.25l of the winner in his last three runs (turf/sand). If there was a problem and resolved then should be thereabouts but perhaps a risky proposition currently, though this is for the most part a poor bunch.
2 SELDOM SEEN KID - Much improved lto on c when 3rd in a weak looking maiden over 1800, finishing 7l ahead of Fort Dixy. Well beaten twice on the turf since but they were from bad draws. Overall c record is not pretty but has the 3 draw and if confirming his last c run then would not be totally without a chance at potentially big odds. Miniscule e/w idiot.
3 FORT DIXY - Has an 0-2-1 record in 8 c runs so occasionally puts in an ok effort but those runs aside, he is normally well beaten. Drawn 11 here and again though he can't be entirely discounted with Chambers up, not for me.
4 HOBB'S FLIGHT - Moffatt. Like a few in the race, he does occasionally put in a half-decent run and is 0-5-3 in 27 c visits (0-3-1 in 9 over c/d) but has been well beaten in recent efforts. Again, can't totally discount from the 5 box but not for me today.
5 MAYBE BABY - Here we go again... 0-1-6 in 26 c visits but a long time since he finished within single digit lengths of the winner and another pass for me.
6 GOLD BAY - Tarry/Strydom. Sand debut. At time of writing is due to race at Turf on Tuesday night, returning from almost a year off. Was well beaten in only turf run to date. Breeding suggests a decent chance she will like the surface and from the 1 box must be respected depending on the outcome of Tuesday's run. Update... fair run considering the time off, the concern is that he did seem to tire, understandably, and how much that might have taken out of him. Not convinced he'll run so be weary of backing others early, the halving in his price has no doubt increased deduction factors, as the bookies know all to well, but, if he does run, especially given the price, I'll look elsewhere.
7 REGENCY ROMANCE - One 3rd in 8 runs and unplaced in 2 on the sand, finishing not far behind FD on both occasions. Khumalo up and a good draw in 4 but should have similar chances to FD which means he is not for me today.
8 CEDARBERG - L Erasmus/Brown. Beaten 27l on sand debut (1000) but that is still closer than he finished to the winner in his 4 turf starts. Erasmus has had a couple of head scratcher winners recently but if this one wins and there is no enquiry then I think we should all give up!
9 BOW 'N ARROW - Sand debut. Drawn well in 2 but well beaten in his only turf run and nothing in the breeding to suggest there will be huge improvement on the sand. At best, a watching brief.
10 DECKIE BOY - Sand debut. Well beaten in his only turf run but the breeding does suggest there is a chance he will enjoy the sand. The e/w idiot in the race but not drawn well in 10.
11 SIROCCO BAY - SJG. Two decent runs over the sprint d's and if staying the trip likely to be in with a big chance, especially given the weak look of this field.
12 SKYFALL - Azzie. Sand debut. Slow away in both mediocre turf runs and nothing in the breeding to say this one will definitely take to the surface. Chance if he does but a watching brief for me.
A pretty mediocre bunch for the most part and that gives Sirocco Bay a great chance if he stays the trip. If all is well with Dragon Fay then he will be a big contender but equally he could flop again. Seldom Seen Kid could challenge for a place at big odds if reproducing his last c run and a few others could get involved if at their best and the principals fail on the surface. Skyfall is all about whether he takes to the sand but, even if so, looks no superstar to date. Deckie Boy holds some idiot e/w appeal at hopefully a big price. SIROCCO BAY x DECKIE BOY x SELDOM SEEN KID
RACE 5 - There are again a few with chances and Aim Of The Game and Elegant Bay were the only two I discounted (so there's the exacta!), though Lady Julia may need it after a 24 week rest. Mexican Glory and Beautiful Dawn could both win but are to me somewhat inconsistent and may just not be good enough here even at their best. Jackodore must have a fair chance but I am still not convinced by her, watching brief. Love Vivien is the one that nags me most, 1-2-0 in 3 c visits over 1000-1200, she showed she stayed this d with a good effort on the turf lto. But, though Negev's record at 1600 and further does not look the best on bare stats, she has had plenty poor draws in those runs and I think she is the one to beat here with the booking of Khumalo also showing intent. Based on the run behind Formation in October, then she holds Break Of Drawn (1450, BOD 4.5l behind and now 0.5kg worse off) and though lto was on turf, it is quite possible there will be little between LV and BOD based on that turf run, though I do think LV will probably increase the margin on this surface. NEGEV x LOVE VIVIEN x BREAK OF DAWN
RACE 6 - Those with c experience who look possibles have all been drawn relatively high and that should help the chances of some of the sand debutants. Striker has been booked by Lucky to ride Go Dutch and this one must have a chance if taking to the surface, which on breeding there is a chance. Potentially, more likely though are the Matchett runner, Orlando Magic, who won lto but, saying it nicely, seems inconsistent and is also drawn on the high side in 9, and one of the two Visser raiders, Sexy And Free, who has drawn 2 and has the services of Khumalo booked. If they all fail to fire on the sand then Soft Sand, despite the draw, could take advantage. SEXY AND FREE x GO DUTCH X ORLANDO MAGIC
RACE 7 - A real conundrum. Plenty sand newcomers with something in the breeding to suggest they may challenge - Kashan (comes off a 34 week break and drawn 9), Duty Dance (11 week break, drawn 4), Golden Orb (12 week break, big drop in trip, drawn 4), Tribal Code (3rd run after rest, drawn 2) and Western Dane (Govender, stable issues? and drawn 7). Of those who have run on the c before, Jumbo would seem to be the L Erasmus stable elect with Brown up but history is showing, particularly last week, that it can often means little from this stable and I prefer The Professor here, better suited to this d but ran creditably over 1000 on c debut but the 12 draw is a big concern. From the 1 box, Hallowed is not entirely discounted and Magic Of Rome seems to be performing better currently and is not overlooked. Of the sand newcomers, the safest option would seem to be Tribal Code who is the best drawn and the others are all coming off a rest but, given the likely price I think I'll take a chance on the draw and go with The Prof who I think might prove to be a fairly useful sand horse and back it up with a small e/w on Magic Of Rome if the price permits... THE PROFESSOR x TRIBAL CODE x DUTY DANCE
RACE 8 - Gets no easier! I'm passing over Principled as I am not convinced about the d so a watching brief for me. Magic Approach made an encouraging sand debut when 2nd over c/d and gets the 1 box but perhaps that field was not the strongest. Fall Of Troy is a possible if coming on for the last run and is 1-1-1 in 4 over c/d. Boy Oh Boy ran a couple of these close lto over 1600 but imo is better suited to that d than the 1450 here. And that leaves, given the current form of some of the others, three for me... Keagan's Jet, Pinot Noir and Dual Alliance. Over 1200 PN had DA (now 2kgs better off) back in August but as with Principled, I am not totally convinced he is fully effective at this d. DA gets a 1.5kg pull for a 1.5l defeat over 1600 by KG and gets Striker up but does not seem the most consistent whereas KG could be returning to some form and gets a much better draw here. Khumalo rode that day and is back in the saddle here. Not convinced but will try... KEAGAN'S JET x DUAL ALLIANCE x PINOT NOIR
RACE 9 - And another open contest to finish. Two de Kock sand debutants have to be respected but there is nothing in the breeding of either that says to me they will definitely take to the sand. Angel Gabriel has been in very good form recently and, though he will find things tougher from the 10 box, must have a good chance if overcoming the draw. Divine Invitation gets 2.5kgs for 3.25l and might take advantage if AG encounters problems. Plenty could surprise but I am going to take a chance that an 8 week break has revitalised Passion Pleaser and that he can take advantage of the 1 box. As an idiot, I'll have a small interest in Pemba who clearly has had issues and once again has been rested, returning from 11 weeks off. But, I am drawn by the booking of Gunter and if he is fit and well then he could shock... PASSION PLEASER x ANGEL GABRIEL x DIVINE INVITATION
