Kenilworth 1/2/14 J&B Met day

One horse on the day really stands out for me and looks great value at 2/1. Happy Forever in Race 3 ran a cracking 4th last week against Via Africa. He beat horses like Cap Alright and Divine Jet who were rated 14 points higher than him. Can someone correct me if I am wrong but I believe he will not receive a penalty for this race as he did not win even though running double digits above his rating. He looks to be coming right back to his best and the 1200 will suit him as well. If the run hasn't come too soon I recon he will take a power of beating.

shrek Wrote:

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> One horse on the day really stands out for me and
> looks great value at 2/1. Happy Forever in Race 3
> ran a cracking 4th last week against Via Africa.
> He beat horses like Cap Alright and Divine Jet who
> were rated 14 points higher than him. Can someone
> correct me if I am wrong but I believe he will not
> receive a penalty for this race as he did not win
> even though running double digits above his
> rating. He looks to be coming right back to his
> best and the 1200 will suit him as well. If the
> run hasn't come too soon I recon he will take a
> power of beating.

No penalty. But JR was sceptical about a run a week after...

shrek Wrote:

---

> One horse on the day really stands out for me and
> looks great value at 2/1. Happy Forever in Race 3
> ran a cracking 4th last week against Via Africa.
> He beat horses like Cap Alright and Divine Jet who
> were rated 14 points higher than him. Can someone
> correct me if I am wrong but I believe he will not
> receive a penalty for this race as he did not win
> even though running double digits above his
> rating. He looks to be coming right back to his
> best and the 1200 will suit him as well. If the
> run hasn't come too soon I recon he will take a
> power of beating.


The Via Africa race has me confused - if one takes the view that Cap Alright ran to his rating, that would mean that Tevez and Muscatt ran more than 10 points above their ratings - also that Via Africa and Red Ray ran about 5 points above their ratings; so I'm taking the view that Cap Alright (and Divine Jet) had an off day - so I rated HF a 95 on that run - still above his official MR of 92, but not by much so 2/1 probably a fair price. Interesting horse for me here is Corredor - ran a fair race over 1600 behind Ze Kaiser and has won over 1200 - if there is a strong headwind on the day I make him a danger.

Hibs can you update the claims for the day so far...please

Frodo Wrote:

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> shrek Wrote:
>

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>

---

> > One horse on the day really stands out for me
> and
> > looks great value at 2/1. Happy Forever in Race
> 3
> > ran a cracking 4th last week against Via
> Africa.
> > He beat horses like Cap Alright and Divine Jet
> who
> > were rated 14 points higher than him. Can
> someone
> > correct me if I am wrong but I believe he will
> not
> > receive a penalty for this race as he did not
> win
> > even though running double digits above his
> > rating. He looks to be coming right back to his
> > best and the 1200 will suit him as well. If the
> > run hasn't come too soon I recon he will take a
> > power of beating.
>
>
> The Via Africa race has me confused - if one takes
> the view that Cap Alright ran to his rating, that
> would mean that Tevez and Muscatt ran more than 10
> points above their ratings - also that Via Africa
> and Red Ray ran about 5 points above their
> ratings; so I'm taking the view that Cap Alright
> (and Divine Jet) had an off day - so I rated HF a
> 95 on that run - still above his official MR of
> 92, but not by much so 2/1 probably a fair price.
> Interesting horse for me here is Corredor - ran a
> fair race over 1600 behind Ze Kaiser and has won
> over 1200 - if there is a strong headwind on the
> day I make him a danger.


Cap Alright had a 1 draw...MASSIVE disadvantage on the day as they all moved to the middle outside.Had the starting stalls been fairly placed as they normally are he may have been a length or 2 closer.....and would possibly have stayed up the inside of straight track.

R1 9 MATIES WILDEKAT
R2 4 DARING DAVE
R3 9 TIGER TIGER
R4 3 ARRIA
R5 6 TELL ME MORE
R6 1 CAPTAIN AMERICA , 8 HELDERBERG BLUE , 9 MARMALADE TYCOON
R7 3 JET BELLE
R8 5 MASTER OF MY FATE'
R9 15 LIFT OFF
R10 12 ROMAN MANNER
R11 9 ZACHRIAS
R12 6 POSH BOY

Frodo Wrote:

---

> shrek Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > One horse on the day really stands out for me
> and
> > looks great value at 2/1. Happy Forever in Race
> 3
> > ran a cracking 4th last week against Via
> Africa.
> >
>
>
> The Via Africa race has me confused - if one takes
> the view that Cap Alright ran to his rating, that
> would mean that Tevez and Muscatt ran more than 10
> points above their ratings - also that Via Africa
> and Red Ray ran about 5 points above their
> ratings; so I'm taking the view that Cap Alright
> (and Divine Jet) had an off day - so I rated HF a
> 95 on that run - still above his official MR of
> 92,

You could argue 2nd by 1L RED RAY ran his rating 105, so 3rd and 4th TEVEZ HAPPY go up 5 each, back to their pre -6 adj and fair enough in a gr1. CAP and DIVINE run way below, but they dd get beat 4L and 6L so that ok too, and MUSCATT down about 3 beaten nearly 7L also ok. VIA runs way below in victory, but no WHATAWINTER in this field.

Funny thing is that however you work it, RED RAY runs higher rating than VIA AFRICA.

Jack Dash Wrote:

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> Frodo Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > shrek Wrote:
> >
>

---

>
> >

---

> > > One horse on the day really stands out for me
> > and
> > > looks great value at 2/1. Happy Forever in
> Race
> > 3
> > > ran a cracking 4th last week against Via
> > Africa.
> > >
> >
> >
> > The Via Africa race has me confused - if one
> takes
> > the view that Cap Alright ran to his rating,
> that
> > would mean that Tevez and Muscatt ran more than
> 10
> > points above their ratings - also that Via
> Africa
> > and Red Ray ran about 5 points above their
> > ratings; so I'm taking the view that Cap
> Alright
> > (and Divine Jet) had an off day - so I rated HF
> a
> > 95 on that run - still above his official MR of
> > 92,
>
> You could argue 2nd by 1L RED RAY ran his rating
> 105, so 3rd and 4th TEVEZ HAPPY go up 5 each, back
> to their pre -6 adj and fair enough in a gr1. CAP
> and DIVINE run way below, but they dd get beat 4L
> and 6L so that ok too, and MUSCATT down about 3
> beaten nearly 7L also ok. VIA runs way below in
> victory, but no WHATAWINTER in this field.
>
> Funny thing is that however you work it, RED RAY
> runs higher rating than VIA AFRICA.


As I say, that race has me confused - for me I'm saying that Tevez ran more or less to his rating - that would make Red Ray's run about 100 (could be realistic as the trip may be short of his best), HF at 95 and Muscatt 85; of course it also depends on how pounds / kg's relate to lenghts - the formula I use have both Red Ray and VA running to the same rating of 100 (and Tevez 99)

What is also interesting, is that on times (using the 'lengths behind' from Formgrids), Via Africa ran only 5.3 lengths 'faster' than the 3 yr old filly Harlem Nocturne (MR 70) winning a maiden - now it could be that VA ran into a stronger wind (not sure :S) but that still leaves me wondering about the Cape Flying form ....:S

If Happy Forever comes out and win by 3 lengths on Saturday, I would have to say that I rated the Cape Flying wrong - won't be the first (or last) time :S

Press Wrote:

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> Yogas to claim his Met Double!

Absolutely!!! Same circumstances this year as last year, i'll be waiving my Pick6 ticket when he comes down the outside with 200m to go and sticks his nose infront, watch :

shrek Wrote:

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> One horse on the day really stands out for me and
> looks great value at 2/1. Happy Forever in Race 3
> ran a cracking 4th last week against Via Africa.
> He beat horses like Cap Alright and Divine Jet who
> were rated 14 points higher than him. Can someone
> correct me if I am wrong but I believe he will not
> receive a penalty for this race as he did not win
> even though running double digits above his
> rating. He looks to be coming right back to his
> best and the 1200 will suit him as well. If the
> run hasn't come too soon I recon he will take a
> power of beating.

I rate Happy Forever....(tu)but like most horses...depends on the day....

Whylie Hall the joker in the pack. Frodo I also like Happy Forever

Here's my straight line trifecta for the met

1st Yorker
2nd Capetown noir
3rd Jackson