This post is dedicated to one Mikesack who posted the following on July 4th 2013:
“Did not see any Met bashing write up by the author slating the quality of that field and at least we will NOT have a 7 year old winner this July like the 80/1 Martial Eagle that won the so called prestigious Met.
PS The Summer Cup was also referred to as SUMMER SQUIB by the author”.
Sorry, Mikesack, but you seem to be missing a few important points :
1.) I am at pains to point out that my opinion should NEVER be taken seriously. If you find it unfunny or tedious just ignore it.
2.) I gather from your comments regarding 7 year olds and 80/1 that you regard a winner of that age and price as some sort of criminal violation of a universal racing law. Sadly a ban on that age and price would have expunged some really GREAT thoroughbreds from the annals of racing!
3.) So how’s the form of the SUMMER SQUIB stood up since? An endless stream of champions and Dubai bound superstars emerged from it?
Nevertheless - I’ll do my best to rubbish the Met and restore your sense of humour.
Which is not too difficult……………………!
Let’s start off with a scene set :
The Met is rapidly starting to resemble a Gay Pride Parade. Correction – a very expensive Gay Pride Parade. In 2014 you can drop approximately R2,500 pp if you want the ‘full house’ treatment. Yip – you will be financially screwed over good and solid whilst you ‘mingle’ with a surreal collection of the Mother City’s gushing social butterflies interspersed by a bemused looking sprinkling of actual racegoers.
Most of the afternoon this sweaty band of humanity will ebb and flow, backwards and forwards. They will all appear to be going somewhere and/or looking for something or somebody whilst actually just getting progressively drunk and sunburned. Isn’t it such fun? Where are the horses, doll?
If it’s racing you enjoy give it a wide berth in favour of the Queen’s Plate day. I kid you not.
In the last few weeks I have watched an uninterrupted string of racing personalities trot out the same tired, worn out justifications and evaluations of this field. Do they never learn? Or more to the point – do they do ANY homework at all?
Let’s start off with a variable that has been almost totally ignored to date – the weather.
I looked up the long range forecast and my source predicts a 35km per hour South Easter on Saturday. Humour me – let’s say we actually get a 35km per hour South Easter. This is massively material as a good number of runners are at their stamina limits at 2000m let alone into the teeth of a 35km South Easter! Has ANYONE even speculated on wind to date? I don’t think so. Moving on……….
From the bottom up let’s look at the field which, to be fair, is about as strong as can be expected given the indecent departure to foreign shores of any horse showing a promise of talent above MR100.
DO YOU REMEMBER
In the years ahead when you watch ‘Blast From The Past’ you might be surprised to recall that this one ran in the 2014 Met. Difficult to travel horses and win. Not for me.
AWESOME POWER
Fair last run. But I’m sticking to my contention that those Grade 2 preps are not heavyweight form. Jockey worries me as he seems short on confidence. I’m visualizing previous roughies but am unable to add this name to the list.
PUNTA ARENAS
I quite like this one. Solid form. Decent jockey. Poor draw although bad draws over the Kenilworth 2000m don’t really worry me as plenty have won from wide. Can Stan Elley produce a Met winner? Not sure.
HOT TICKET
My first choice. I kid you not. If it loses – which it probably will – I will blow as much as R2,500. That’s hardly life threatening. But if it wins there are 300 gorillas headed my way. Which is why I am remarkably unfazed by what happens. No stamina problems. Been lurking on the fringes lately. Trainer knows his business AND scratched from the J&B Reserve Stayers in favour of the Met. Not mad about the rider but then a lot of Christmas jockeys have won the Met.
You can’t go out backing roughies!
MASTER SABINA
Interesting one. Regularly ranges up looking all over a winner only to fold under pressure. Not convinced that it could lump this weight to victory.
NO WORRIES
No.13. Strong karma here. Strydom. Hmmmm. Front runner. More hmmmmm although not sure what hmmmmm actually means. If the wind blows and you’ve backed it then it may look as if it’s running on the spot in the last 200m. Will require all of the Strydom front running genius to win. And who’s to say it won’t get it?
LAKE ARTHUR
Aka ‘The funeral’. Martial Eagle was ‘The Wedding’ and you missed the wedding. So don’t be left sitting alone in the front row at the funeral! Gorrit?
KING OF PAIN
Aptly named as he has not won a race since this very jockey panel beat the s**t out of him over a year ago in a remarkable display of whip abuse. I am always suspicious of horses which produce explosive finishes in 1400/1600 m races as they often just plod over further. Confession – I like grey horses so would not sulk if he won.
JET EXPLORER
Starting to resemble the stable replacement for Run For It. Flying finish when the winner is already unsaddling. Interesting conundrum for a jockey whose real skill is going handy or to the front. Would be a hollow victory if he won as there is no De Kock entry in the race for the trainer to chirp over.
Question - If he wins does Justin Snaith or Vee Moodley do the interview?
ICE MACHINE
If Mr Cohen were calling this race we would be treated to a horse called Arse Machine in the race.
Produced an astonishing finish in his penultimate race and then ( or so ‘they’ tell me ) was not 100% for his next run. Gee- I worked that out all on my own seeing that he finished nearly 10 lengths behind the winner.
I would like to rubbish this one but must be careful of violating the law of the K factor. So I will rather say I don’t know.
ROYAL ZULU WARRIOR
I liked the gallop. But then I remembered that this is the Western Cape and the ANC claims that blacks ( Zulus too? ) feel ‘uncomfortable’ in a society dominated by whites.
I expect his discomfort to start in earnest at the 400m mark.
But he sure looks good so maybe a place?
HILL FIFTY FOUR
Not sure how happy I would be if my horse had this name. Can you actually imagine his name being whispered in hushed, reverent tones as a previous Met winner.
Sadly not.
WHITELINE FEVER
Tarry is hot. You know what I mean!
He got Alastor to stay 2000m so I am reluctant to write him off after a top run in the Queen’s Plate – which I still suspect in his best distance. Nevertheless I saw him brutally dispose of a field at the big T in his penultimate run and found that impressive. (I must be watching a lot of SA racing on the sly).
I assume he has acclimatized to the Cape by now. Usually this means they flourish.
Could he?
MASTER OF MY FATE
At long last. A Durban horse! What is it with this centre?
Good to see one rise above their staple fare – the MR 64 Fillies & Mares events about which they are so passionate.
Top trainer. Top jockey. Fit. Well. Undeniable chance and one final step away from being proclaimed a champion.
But here’s the rub : Unless you backed him early are you really going to take 5/2 about a horse with 17 ‘live’ opponents where none of trainers will be paging through the ‘Excuse Manual’ and offering that old favourite : ‘He needed the run.’ Rather look to a smaller race with maybe only one ‘live’ opponent where you can get the same price.
I am going to stick my neck out like the proverbial Christmas turkey on this one : The races he has won to date are not traditional pointers to the Met winner. Said it since day one and cannot afford to change at this late stage.
But I AM happy to concede that he is a serious runner.
YORKER
Could give cheek as he has matured. But still no ‘Bring On Frankel’ superstar. Ticks all of the draw, trainer, jockey boxes. I wonder whether he might not turn out to be more of a Gold Cup horse………..
WYLLIE HALL
Does Markus Jooste say : Choose me the horses with the ugliest names. The last ‘hall’ we have/had was Albert Hall. How is he working out for you?
Flatters. Deceives. Probably top class but not a champion.
See Hill Fifty Four comments.
CAPE TOWN NOIR
This horse has just done enough to fool a lot of punters into writing him off. Could be a bad mistake.
His rising star was dimmed by Vercingetorix. That one’s loitering in the desert or wherever.
This one does not just have Grade 1 ambitions. He already has 3 Grade 1 titles including, crucially, the Cape Derby over course and distance. On known form this is the juiciest priced horse in the field.
The niggle is about stamina.
So explain to me : They want 5/2 about an unproven horse yet offer nearly three times better on a proven course and distance horse with a slight stamina doubt.
I hope you now understand why I rate the prospect of wind as being crucial!
You decide.
JACKSON
This one brings back strong memories of the year Pocket Power failed in his attempt at yet another Met and was beaten by his sister.
( Am I allowed to mention that I backed her at 33/1 ? Embarrassed to say I missed the 66/1 )
I recall his Queen’s Plate run and it looked disturbingly like the effort from Jackson in the same event a couple of weeks back. A bit laboured.
Second run after a rest? Perhaps. Perfect preparation? Maybe not.
He’s drifted a bit so possibly represents better value based on recent performances. Crucially he already has the Grade 1 stamp and this reality should never be underestimated.
He still remains my ‘most likely’ but does not represent a punting proposition.
Punting either of the top two is likely to invoke an enquiry on Monday when you ask yourself : What induced me to take 5/2 on a horse against a competitive field of 17 opponents?
If you have backed Master Of My Fate at 7/1 or better I recommend you seek out a desperate bookmaker and lay him some 3/1 and enjoy 4/0 on the day. Think first about what you can lose before you count the cash which is still a long way from being realized.
Enjoy the day and be careful of any men in pink shirts.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Topic Author
...
