Scratching Through The Entrails Of The Met

Seeing that this is a betting site it may be worth reflecting on a couple of the betting issues regarding last Saturday’s Met.

First – as to the actual winner; like most of you I got it totally wrong despite diligently searching for that elusive outsider. In fact my selection finished a notable last so clearly I have no talent insofar as finding big race winners is concerned. So what’s new? But…….I stood to win over R400k for an outlay of under 5k and even managed to recoup that outlay with a strike on ‘good thing’ Arria in advance of the Met.

However – some of my words of caution (stretching way back to the first emergence of Master Of My Fate as a potential runner) were brutally rammed home on the big day. They were best summarised as follows :

If you followed the career path trodden by previous Met winners you couldn’t back Master Of My Fate.

If you followed known form and the evidence of your eyes you would probably have jumped off Jackson after the Queen's Plate.

But what is a lot more important going forward is how you managed (or mismanaged) your wagering risk if you happened to have backed Master Of My Fate. Assuming you backed him at 7/1 or better then you need to be institutionalised if you did not, at least, attempt to cover your stake by laying back a portion of your bet to your bookmaker. P-l-e-a-s-e let that be the last time you make that mistake and eschew a profit in favour of a ‘killing’ which never materialised.

Amazing how the adrenalin fuelled decisions of Saturday can be reviewed so logically on a Monday!

Sadly the Tote played its role (again) in shamelessly mauling place punters on the big race. Read this and weep :

Hill 54 paid R2-70 for a place. With an SP of 16/1 you should have got 4/1 at the very least -136% better.
Yorker paid R3-40 for a place. With an SP of 20/1 you should have got 5/1 or 108% better.
Punta Arenas paid R6-90 for a place. With an SP of 50/1 you should have got 12/1 or 102% better.
Whiteline Fever paid R3-10 for a place. With an SP of 20/1 you should have got 5/1 or 138% better
Master Of My Fate paid R1-40 for a place. You only got paid if you backed it on the tote.

What is the point of this dilution? It goes in stark contrast to the other strategy being pursued – namely the removal of couplings etc. to create bigger dividends. Talk about muddled thinking.

But the weekend's real betting lesson was only played out on Monday evening. Compare this risk/reward scenario to the Met!

Manchester City lined up against Chelsea. Forget the result. Rather focus on the reward that was on offer relative to the risk. Chelsea took on only two opponents ( Manchester City & The Draw) for pretty much the same price that was on offer for Master Of My Fate against no less than 17 opponents last Saturday!

You could have reduced your risk even further by backing your fancy and covering on the draw. Or vice versa. In which case you would have had a simplistic 66% chance of not losing. Wow.

Ironically – if you are punting long term then Manchester City’s loss offers you the opportunity to go in again at odds against as opposed to odds on. Another opportunity to adjust and regroup.

So let’s all stay alert and recoup those Met losses. Quickly.

Cheers Garrick (tu)

As u might be aware no Met punt for scotia
I am sure u your going to say because no money on shot in Met but Beach Beauty was just fine

scotia Wrote:

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> Cheers Garrick (tu)
>
> As u might be aware no Met punt for scotia
> I am sure u your going to say because no money on
> shot in Met but Beach Beauty was just fine


Confession, Dave - I tickled her up too. But as always my limit on an odds shot is a 'monkey' - just to be with her. Backing winners is good for the self confidence!

This could be rather scary and I kid u not but I am having a rather large glass of monkey shoulder -D
Plus it costs around a monkey for a bottle, going to check the card as this could be an omen

Great insight Garrick. We get too caught up in the emotion of the event / race, and end up not evaluating Risk vs Reward, hedging bets etc.

Good post!Liked the last 1 aswell...Agree with Lionel,people get to emotional.They see a R3MIL price tag....the horse have won a few decent races well....suddenly he is a Champion...Like GB said...the word champion is used too freely,but dont get me wrong...he might still Become a champion yes,but certainly is not 1 yet!On paper...(as how most turf races workout) HILL54 had MOMF soundly beaten...a fav vs a 16/1 shot....but peoples emotions took over,as M=MF was labelled Met winner long before field were finalised...remember this...The price tag of a horse doesnt mean shit!

Great post. With regard to the low place dividends paid, this is highlighted by the following:
swingers R36.30 :R114.70 :R174.60
exacta R275.40
trifecta R13873.60
quartet R137066.00

Nice read Garrick.I see that your favourite sport rugby is on our doorstep, awaiting your views.

Sadly the Tote played its role (again) in shamelessly mauling place punters on the big race. Read this and weep :

Hill 54 paid R2-70 for a place. With an SP of 16/1 you should have got 4/1 at the very least -136% better.
Yorker paid R3-40 for a place. With an SP of 20/1 you should have got 5/1 or 108% better.
Punta Arenas paid R6-90 for a place. With an SP of 50/1 you should have got 12/1 or 102% better.
Whiteline Fever paid R3-10 for a place. With an SP of 20/1 you should have got 5/1 or 138% better
Master Of My Fate paid R1-40 for a place. You only got paid if you backed it on the tote.

Send this to MR Talk the Talk Moodley and lets see what sh1t he comes up with...

99% of punters don't even attempt to 'make a book' and the average punter wagers less than R500 on a straight bet so laying off to lock in a small profit isn't worth their while.

Your comparison holds no water, currently it's distorted and unfairly so. Perhaps Dev can advise what formula Hollywood used to determine their top 5 place odds.

I think a fair comparison of the odds would be to see what fixed odds price one would have got MOMF to finish in the first 5 places...9/20 ?

The one thing about the forum that must amuse outsiders is the amount of times we flog the same dead horse, and with people all taking up the same positions everytime the subject comes round.................lol

Lets agree to let everybody bet where it suits them.........hey,whatever blows your hair back,as they say!!!