Turffontein Tues 11/2/14

Jade bay ran 5 lengts behind sharp design!

saldiani Wrote:

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> how often did we get tarried today? and every time
> he again tells us some wrong horses... theses
> horses!! they have their own mind haha!!
>
> very good call for commodore al, who was it?


Seems to be happening more frequently, not just with Tarry.

My view is that this is happening because of
1) The change in the coupling rule
2) The pricing up horses by Bookies to throw punters off from the real value.
3) Trainers becoming more aware of Bookie pricing, as they can see this well in advance.

And then once a punter takes all of this into account, we see the tote payouts been manipulated with late scratchings, thereby reducing payouts if the favorite wins, or we see the original favorite end up no longer been favorite, due to last second flood of money on another horse.?..and there goes thousands of tickets.

We then end up with a situation where one of two things could happen.

The new favorite wins which means all standing bets with a scratched horse will go forward to the next leg, or the new tote manipulated favorite looses, which then eliminates thousands of tickets from going onto to the next leg.

For those who monitor the win trend displayed on tab online, how often do you see a horse that has no chance of winning reflect money coming for it, and in the last few minutes before the off, it suddenly drifts out.

You also see reduced payouts for the horse that wins, or the donkey that runs a place,,and yes there are times when horses that run into the exotics have drifted, but these are the exceptions.?..could be someone hit the enter button too late.

And this is what the punter at the tote follows.

Stands in a queue, places his bet on what he sees. Sudden change in betting does not allow him sufficient time to amend his bet.

The unanswered question is, are bets intentionally been placed on unfancied horses to draw more money, only for those bets to be cancelled at the last minute and placed on another horse

A trainee auditor would easily be able to Pick this up, but I guess that, whoever the highly paid auditors of racing are, they still have to figure this out.

And then we have the stripes???

No win situation for the punter.

Obserber 1

You see what happens, the trend continues… use the info to your advantage… part of your studies… I have for many a years said form is only 30% of the puzzle… INTENT is a very important aspect to include… it does not help to notice it and yet still continue with your structuring of bets… then you will forever be that punter in the losing sue. Knowledge is power… use it wisely…

Vino Nero was the victim of a ridiculous MR system that continues to fail..after winning a maiden he was slapped with a 75 MR :S predictably he did not perform at that level but last night he raced off a MR 50 , carried 50,5 in a very moderate field and had to have a chance, no good blaming the trainer he never decided on the price, once again the odds makers got it wrong and any form studier could have and should have taken advantage of it...did I?? nope.

Titch Wrote:

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> Vino Nero was the victim of a ridiculous MR system
> that continues to fail..after winning a maiden he
> was slapped with a 75 MR :S predictably he did not
> perform at that level but last night he raced off
> a MR 50 , carried 50,5 in a very moderate field
> and had to have a chance, no good blaming the
> trainer he never decided on the price, once again
> the odds makers got it wrong and any form studier
> could have and should have taken advantage of
> it...did I?? nope.


Made my P6 pay a lovely R450k Titch (tu)

Titch Wrote:

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> Vino Nero was the victim of a ridiculous MR system
> that continues to fail..after winning a maiden he
> was slapped with a 75 MR :S predictably he did not
> perform at that level but last night he raced off
> a MR 50 , carried 50,5 in a very moderate field
> and had to have a chance, no good blaming the
> trainer he never decided on the price, once again
> the odds makers got it wrong and any form studier
> could have and should have taken advantage of
> it...did I?? nope.


Had to take an extra long shower this morning in order to get all the egg of my face - I saw that this horse had been entered in the upcoming Shongweni Horses in Training sale, and so never gave it a second look last night and subsequently never picked up on that huge MR drop - and anyway I was so blinded by the stable companion that I did not look much deeper in that race; getting back to Woodstock Express, that run was simply too bad to be true - not sure if it was the lights, or whether something went wrong with him - but I will stick with him next time out - it was also pointed out by Julie pre-race that he was the stable fancy

Titch Wrote:

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> Vino Nero was the victim of a ridiculous MR system
> that continues to fail..after winning a maiden he
> was slapped with a 75 MR :S predictably he did not
> perform at that level but last night he raced off
> a MR 50 , carried 50,5 in a very moderate field
> and had to have a chance, no good blaming the
> trainer he never decided on the price, once again
> the odds makers got it wrong and any form studier
> could have and should have taken advantage of
> it...did I?? nope.

all in hindsight....backing horses that are falling apart will destroy you very quickly....

i see Vino Nero is running again Tomorrow good luck

Loopy do you tip pick6 to clients?

nxt punter Wrote:

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> Loopy do you tip pick6 to clients?


Yes, that winning P6 @ 11/2 ticket as welll as picking up the PA x 32 @ an 11/1 ticket was uploaded for every registered member to see. Registration and access to the daily ratings has and STILL is FREE for the rest of the werk on quick registration. (2 Minute Username/email address)