SUPER 15 : MAKING AN INTELLIGENT DECISION

Super 15 is about to start. This is one of my favourite betting opportunities of the year. I thought you might enjoy sharing some of the methodologies I apply in sifting through the form and hope it might be of help to you in formulating your own fancies:

1. LONG TERM vs WEEK by WEEK

I have dramatically reduced my week by week betting in recent seasons and tend to focus more on the competition outcome. I find the value for money factor better and one gets less rattled by one or two 'spook' results during any given weekend.

2. STUDYING FORM

a. Confirm the 7/6 status. All sides play 13 round robin matches. For obvious reasons 7 are at home and 6 away or vice versa. This can be a significant advantage or disadvantage. Sides with 7 home fixtures in a given season have an edge.

b. Take note of byes. The placement of the 'rest' weekends can also be an advantage or disadvantage.

c. Note which opponent sides are scheduled to play after returning from travel. This can temporarily negate home advantage for the first match after touring - particularly if they encounter a top class side.

d. Note when sides have more than one home ground. This can dilute their advantage when they play at the 'minor' home ground.

e. Beware of match times. For example - Durban is a sauna until late April/early May so note afternoon or early evening matches involving visiting sides unused to local conditions.

I also find that touring SA sides tend to do better when playing afternoon fixtures overseas. Check those times.

f. Note which side your fancy does NOT play in the round robin. If it is a strong side you are lucky!

g. Form tends to be the most unreliable in derby games and where any two given sides have a long history of rivalry.( Waratahs vs Reds, Bulls vs Stormers etc).

h. Sides heavily stocked with current internationals can present you with a problem for two reasons : i. If the international gets injured the replacement is sometimes significantly inferior and upsets the balance of the side. ii. Your team members get little or no rest during the June 'test window' and may struggle to see out the tournament.

i. Beware of short turnaround times between matches. ( Sides do not always enjoy 7 days between games )

j. Beware short turnaround times accompanied by additional travel when sides are on the road. (eg a SA side connecting between Australia & NZ with less than 7 days between games ).

3. BETTING

a. I have smaller bets when SA sides play NZ or Aus sides. My mantra is 'local is unreliable'.

b. I have my biggest bets on NZ sides - whether they be single matches or long term.

c. I prefer betting on the result rather than on the handicap. It's more expensive but you are less likely to lose simply because the side leading took its foot off the pedal when well ahead and failed to beat the handicap.

d. Ignore pre-season hype. We almost always have a 'boomed' side which underperforms and a unexpected overachiever.

e. It is TOTALLY UNNECESSARY to bet ante-post. My records reveal that the best time to start a long term position is in Week 3-4. In recent years this has been the week when the eventual winner was offered at the biggest price.

f. The best time to back your fancy long term is right after they have been beaten.

g. Unlike racing ( which has dozens ) you really have only two uncontrollable major variables which will derail your play : weather & injuries.

4. OTHER

1. If you want to punt rugby successfully you need to stop being a fan of any given side or region. Right now. This is business and you cannot allow loyalties to cloud your judgement.

2. The tournament runs over nearly 6 months. There is no hurry.

3. If you speculate everything you win on other bets over the next few months and your side lifts the cup you will be in for one of your biggest paydays!

Good fortune to you all.

Thank you again Garrick

(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)

Just one thing that has helped me when betting rugby some teams have been slow starters in the past so be wary of big punts early on
Do Your Homework

Great post Garrick! -D

Who are your fancies Garrick ?

I've backed Sharks Top SA conference at 17/10 a month ago, Taken 7/1 Sharks tournament.
Backed Waratahs Top Ausie at 18/10.
Speculative Canes 9/1 Top NZ

Taken a few match bets, have brasses the Bulls

Taken 28/10 Rebels to get the wooden spoon.

the only intelligent decision to be made is to back the Auckland Blues for the title. They have made a few good signings and will not be found wanting this season.

chicken 'n chips Wrote:

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> the only intelligent decision to be made is to
> back the Auckland Blues for the title. They have
> made a few good signings and will not be found
> wanting this season.


same old Chicken...

gregbucks Wrote:

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> chicken 'n chips Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > the only intelligent decision to be made is to
> > back the Auckland Blues for the title. They
> have
> > made a few good signings and will not be found
> > wanting this season.
>
>
> same old Chicken...


they are my team so I have to be positive. <

Chicken leave them Blues alone they'll put you in the poor house ()

Beyond The Pale Wrote:

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> Chicken leave them Blues alone they'll put you in
> the poor house ()


They have for the past 3 years so they owe me and this year just maybe their time in the sun

another great post Garrick