Thanks THH (tu)
More of an overview this time I think, a difficult card imo and won't be playing too much... had one race still to do this morning but really not in the mood to do the write-up so...
R1 Poor start to proceedings. Possibly best to go with the form of the Hillary race or hope one of the sand newcomers can improve on the surface, nothing suggests to me though that is very likely... RUNAWAY TIME x SLICK DEPUTY x MERLINS GEM
R2 Not much better than the opener and it could go to a complete shocker, I just can't identify which one it might be!! If I had to pick one for an R1 e/w it would probably be Major Impact but it is very tenuous! Triple Distilled's sand debut wasn't the worst over 1450 and from a wide draw he was only 1.5l behind Amour De La Bonte. But, he has again drawn wide and the shorter d can only make that impact more severe. Just A Thought, the SJG runner, though may be able to overturn the form. He was coming off an 11 week rest and finished only 0.1l behind ADLB, he is also slightly better drawn here. Royal Stock finally gets a good draw over 1200 and it should help him stay the d better. He does have 4l to find though on ADLB from their last meeting and provided ADLB is not unlucky in running, I would expect him to again run on the stronger. That said, none of the above form is exactly inspiring so it may be worth taking an e/w chance on the sand debutant, The Big Show, from the Alec Laird stable with Khumalo up. They have a good draw in 3, a little in the breeding suggests he may take to the surface and the drop in trip may help. He certainly won't have to be a superstar to win it but there is still a big chunk of hope going into the selection... THE BIG SHOW x JUST A THOUGHT x AMOUR DE LA BONTE
R3. Gets no better. The two likely principals, Lady Casey and Feline Eyes have both drawn high and that perhaps opens the door for a shock but, again, I'm struggling to identify the one that might perform the deed! More through a process of elimination than anything else, I'm going to chance the debutant Ayessaypee who has a little in the breeding to suggest he might go on the sand and has Gunter up from the 1 box... AYESSAYPEE x LADY CASEY x FELINE EYES
R4 The Disciple looks the obvious one but he has a tough draw to contend with and does not appear to have a great record when drawn wide. He has though run well on both visits to the sand and has to be a serious contender. My preference though is for the consistent Velddrifter who has a distinct advantage of the 1 box. Oklahoma Trippi came back to form lto and is now on 3rd run after a rest, he could be competitive here. On breeding, it seems quite possible that Pep Talk will take to the surface and from a good draw of 4 and with the appie taking weight off he could be the surprise package at decent odds... VELDDRIFTER x OKLAHOMA TRIPPI x THE DISCIPLE
R5 Plenty of the "form" horses here are drawn high, most specifically Olympic Spring, Imperial Empress and Seattle Fairy. Also drawn high is sand debutant Baba Ganouche who, on breeding, could enjoy the surface. If they can overcome the draw, big "if" though in a sizeable field, then they all have chances. The one that may be a relatively big price which is of some appeal is Pretty Lady. Well beaten lto over 1800 following a rest, if not affected by 2nd run after a rest syndrome and coming on for that last run then, from a good draw in 3, she could prove competitive. Woodland Fire is not the most consistent but if producing her best could also be thereabouts. The safer and perhaps sensible option though is Summer Sari. Not always at her best with weight but she is relatively well drawn in 6 and was a strong finishing 2nd under this appie lto over 1800... SUMMER SARI x PRETTY LADY x OLYMPIC SPRING
R6 Killua Castle appears to be the obvious one after two convincing wins on the sand over 1450 recently. The odds are likely to be restrictive though and following two possibly disappointing efforts on the turf in his last two outings. I'm going to pass and take a chance on Taptap Makhatini who has 4 wins and a 2nd from his 5 c visits. The big concern is of course that he comes back from a 49 week rest but, he performed well when returning from a 28 week rest previously, albeit in the maidens, and could represent some value. Straw Market is another not to be underestimated and was finishing in a rush over this d on his only c visit. He has drawn 9 though and that might prove a hurdle too far. Boy Oh Boy is not without a squeak and one to definitely include in quartets imo. For value... TAPTAP MAKHATINI x STRAW MARKET x BOY OH BOY
R7 Tricky. Goldstream is tempting having run on well lto over 1000 and with a good draw in 3 but, the d has to be a big question mark. 5 attempts at the d (4 on sand) and he has not finished within single figure lengths of the winner but, he did win his only attempt at 1160. Vulcan comes back from a 17 week rest after reportedly not striding out in his last run, his only previous sand effort was after a rest (16 weeks) when a decent 2.75l 2nd to Hang Fire but he was drawn 1 that day. Cosmic Tom also returns after a rest (13 weeks) after reportedly not striding. He won his maiden following a 27 week rest after his debut run, the latter being his only sand run when a decent 2.25l 2nd to the relatively useful Tiger Territory. LG has put Striker up on One Man's Dream but the breeding gives no indication to me as to whether the horse will like the surface (Louis, any comments would be welcome, thanks!). Jimmy's Lightning must have a chance on the strength of his decent win over 1000 lto but has failed to produce much when run further than 1000 (it could be argued, maiden win aside, he had not achieved a lot over any d before that last win!). He was beaten 5l in his only previous c n d run (maiden) when drawn widest of 12, from the 4 box here he has to be considered. Tora Tora's last run might be best ignored as he was another reported as not striding but is drawn 12 and that is obviously very much against him.... COSMIC TOM x GOLDSTREAM x VULCAN
R8 Plenty in with chances, I'm going with PARK RIDGE x SUNSET BABY x UNITED
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