FAIRVIEW: Comparing Poly and Turf Performances

Decided that the qualification should be a minimum of 3 runs on each surface.

Found 80 qualifiers (from over 1000 horses with over 3250 runs) up to March’14.

Compared the speed ratings for each of the runners and found that 77% performed the same on poly as turf (only best figures taken into account – ignored bad hair days).

Found 10 (12%) showed better figures on poly (at least 3), namely –
Be the Best
Blue Horizon Bay
Deepo
Giuliano
Inca’s Star
National Al
Not Tonight
Stage Girl
Strike a Light
The Delegator

Similiarly, found 9 (11%) that showed better figures on turf (at least 3), namely –
Glam I Am
Irish lady
Lunar Emblem
Middlesex Street
Mo’ Pepper
Nile Symphony
Pretty Flamingo
Stars and Stripes
Titlee

For most of the 80 reviewed the difference between ratings on each surface still only amounted to a couple of lengths, none were greater than 5 lengths. Obviously other aspects such as draw, trouble in running, stable form etc were not taken into account.

At this stage there does not seem to be significant variances in horses performances due to the racing surface, however this may become the case with more ‘evidence’.
Meanwhile, it should still be prudent to be aware of such runner by runner and race by race (note Blue Horizon Bay and Titlee yesterday).

Miss D has never shown any liking for poly but due to lack of races we let her run and was flying at the finish.
If the race was on grass she would have done better, but at least we had a run and a chance rather than the meeting being called up, so well done to PE

Gave Miss D an 81 for Fridays race.
A 91 for her previous race and a 94 when she won in Jan.
This implies she is 5-6 lengths superior on turf (all things being equal).

Do understand that the stable/connections should have the best idea of what surface best suits each horse…although visits to Vaal Sand have been disastrous for many good turf performers who ‘apparently’ worked well on sand training tracks.

Pleased to say there appears to be greater compatibility between the turf and poly at FV, and yes wonderful to have racing going ahead which would previously have been cancelled or abandoned.

Thanks for the work THH (tu)