Do breeders

get too much coverage on Tellytrack?

Every 2nd word during previews and commentaries,seems to be bred by this stud,what you call him bred this one,by this sire,this sire is one to watch

Is there a brown envelope culture?

hibernia Wrote:

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> get too much coverage on Tellytrack?
>
> Every 2nd word during previews and
> commentaries,seems to be bred by this stud,what
> you call him bred this one,by this sire,this sire
> is one to watch
>
> Is there a brown envelope culture?


slightly off topic but found it amazing to hear young Cohen say he does not take much notice of breeding mentioning a daughter of Modus Vivendi that had done well overseas(Dance with the Devil) - What about the hundreds of Jet Masters, Vars, Fort Woods etc that do well year after year- There are nicks that consistently produce good horses and others that don't - If you think breeding is not important in Racing you undermine proven science and statistics.

Mr H, I agree with you on the Breeding side.
However, I think that Ali Cohen is just trying to do his job, by studying form as his guide, coupled with some things he has seen whilst commentating, eg a bump or squeezed, cramped etc.
I think that as much as good nicks and well bred plays a role, there are many horses that are brilliant on paper but do not produce the expectations of their pedigree come raceday. There were many Jet Masters that were useless, for example...
So, Ali is just doing his job, calling it based on the horse and its exposed ability, rather than on pedigree.

Personally I find breeding interesting. It is statistical, otherwise buying at sales would be cut and dried, no risks and no thrills either. But overall, some sires and some combinations do prove more successful on the track.

Brown envelopes? I don't know, but if anyone is really interested enough to study pedigree and give us some interesting ideas on TT, especially about new up-and-coming sires, then I'm all for it.

(Just b.t.w. ... conformation, imho, is statistical too. What was that horse of a few years ago that had a twisted front leg but proved very successful on the sand? How many scrawny little creatures (like Jet Master) set the tracks alight when they grow up? And how many drop-dead-beautiful yearlings turn out to be just plain slow?)

I am also annoyed about the free coverage that breeders get. If I was TT management, I would use this platform to generate revenue.

I would also ban all form jockey advertising as there is no benefit to TT.

TT could approach these breeders and other sponsors direcltly and offer them better packages on advertising.

Just my thoughts

I've mentioned this before Thanking Trainer breeder jockey and anyone one else connected FFS that's how they earn their living

An interesting aspect of breeding was pointed out to me recently, by one of the respected local breeding guys, was that full brothers or sisters to champions are,as a generalisation, seldom much more than above average, and often average,or less.(One exception is Pocket Power and River Jetez,but apparently that is statistically rare!)

Such difference in ability between horses with exactly the same cross, seems to dilute the exact science of measuring ability with breeding, or is that logic flawed.

Does it make the paying of big money for full brothers and sisters of champions ,at the sales, misguided?

Would be interested in the opinion of the experts (Karel your comment would be particularly welcome!)

I'm certainly no expert, but interested in breeding theories.

Thinking about it logically and taking into account the statement about full brothers and sisters, it certainly does not make sense to pay big premiums on full siblings of champions; what does seem to be evident is that certain 'nicks' (Kahal / Northern Guest, Silvano / Al Mufit) are more 'successful' than others. The question is 'how more successful' and even if one can deduct that a Kahal / Northern Guest cross is 20% more 'successful' than say a Kahal / Fort Wood cross, can one then 'follow through' that logic to determine that one should pay 20% more for a yearling that has the Kahal / Northern Guest cross, than one would pay for a yearling that has the Kahal / Fort Wood cross (given that both yearlings can't be spilt on conformation, etc.) ?

Another thing that I have been thinking about recently, is the number of winning foals a mare produces; popular thinking would have it that if a mare had 4 winners from 4 foals, (or 5 from 5, etc.) that the next yearling is bound to be a winner as well; however imo the number of mares that can boast a 100% record in terms of winners from runners, are few and far between. So should one not be on your guard when presented with a yearling whose dam boasts 4 from 4 (or 5 from 5 etc) - the next one could be the 'flop' ?

One thing is for sure - in breeding (as with racing) there are no 'sure things' (tu)

once an owner buys a horse it's theirs,the breeder should pay the owner for advertising future progeny.you don't see the breeder when you buy a dud from them

hibernia Wrote:

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> get too much coverage on Tellytrack?
>
> Every 2nd word during previews and
> commentaries,seems to be bred by this stud,what
> you call him bred this one,by this sire,this sire
> is one to watch
>
> Is there a brown envelope culture?


One thing that has always slightly amused me is the frequent theme in interviews..................."Thank you to the breeders"........(unsaid: for letting me purchase your horse)..... .......(unsaid:for X (often many 100's of thousands of Rands))............................most retailers,in other industries, thank the customer............-

rob faux Wrote:

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> hibernia Wrote:
>

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>

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> > get too much coverage on Tellytrack?
> >
> > Every 2nd word during previews and
> > commentaries,seems to be bred by this stud,what
> > you call him bred this one,by this sire,this
> sire
> > is one to watch
> >
> > Is there a brown envelope culture?
>
>
> One thing that has always slightly amused me is
> the frequent theme in
> interviews..................."Thank you to the
> breeders"........(unsaid: for letting me purchase
> your horse)..... .......(unsaid:for X (often many
> 100's of thousands of
> Rands))............................most
> retailers,in other industries, thank the
> customer............-

Wow Rob.
Never thought about it that way ... but yes agree with you 100 %

Rob,

Never mind Champions.
Let's just do Gr1 winners.
Worldwide the very best sires should not be expected to produce more than 2% Gr1 winners at the most.
Meaning a crop of 100 foals can be expected to produce two Gr1 winners at best.
The same goes for breeders, which is why the biggest best breeders have a better chance of producing Gr1 winners.

A mare in a good career can maybe expect to have 10 foals.
Apply the stats of 2 in a 100, and see that for a mare to have even one Gr1 winner is a stroke of luck.
To expect more than one, full siblings or not, is sheer optimism.
Yet some mares can break the stats.
Banks Hill and siblings, out of Hasili.
Secretariat and Sir Gaylord, out of Somethingroyal.
Captain's Lover and Ebony Flyer, out of Sunshine Lover.
There are more, but they really are very few and far between.
Mostly for a mare to have more than two Gr1 winners is a black swan.

On the same subject, if a top sire has a 2% chance to sire a Gr1 winner, and he gets 3 out of his first 100 foals, then expect a good chance that the next 100 won't have another 3! Or if there's nothing in the first year of a sire at stud, there can certainly be one or more in a subsequent crop (assuming the size of the crop is large enough).

Jet Master and Captain Al started in the same year.
Jet Master has 20 individual Gr1 winners from 730 (or so) foals, that's a remarkable 2.7%
His closest adversary Western Winter is on 17, from 800 foals - just over 2%
Captain Al, no slouch, has 8 Gr1 winners (all from different crops) from 700 foals (born before 2012), which is just over 1% (read more about Captain Al's Gr1 winners on the Sporting Post website, under Breeding/Pedigree Peeler, in Carry On Alice).
Dynasty has some 350 foals (from before 2012) and 5 Gr1 winners (1.5%).
Silvano (in South Africa) just on 600 foals and a dozen Gr1 winners (2.0%).