Thanks to all for the (varied) opinions (tu)
I agree with Englander in that it is a card of two halves - first 4 races looks much easier than the last 4, with the last the toughest on the card imo - so for value I'm going to take some each-way bets in the last 4 races.
R1: Tiger Would the right horse on form - wide draw, but experienced work ride, so should be ok; 2nd choice for me is Knockout Johnny who tries the trip, but at least has a decent draw; 3rd choice I'd make Rebel Flame, but being by National Emblem, could be better over shorter.
R2: Everything points to Danish Zealot, but she has had many chances, so possible that she could find one too good again; that being said, not many jump out at me as likely to do so; perhaps Tormentress from an in-form stable or Sundays Sister, who needs improvement from a moderated debut; for the rest all of Leah's Little Love, Californian Girl, Sugaree and Noble Wind have place credentials if producing some of their better efforts - Supa Sami improved last week to run 2nd, but that was over 1400 and I'm not sure if she is as effective over the longer trip.
R3: Zortziko made a fair debut and could improve further over this trip; a touch short in the betting imo, but does rate the one to beat; the main danger should be the 2nd favorite Lisnoble, who can also improve over this trip after a fair debut in a poor workrider's race; Toughnuttocrack represents the in-form Ferreira yard, but the appie does not really inspire confidence and he has an outside draw to contend with, so a bigger danger could be the first timer Forest View, who has found betting support; Striker stays with Red Bull Kid, so not to be ignored for larger P6 perms imo
R4: The juvenile Mystic Express looks one of the better bets on the card imo, especially as it looks as if none of the first-timers are finding any significant betting support - on a difficult card possibly the most likely P6 banker; the Erasmus coupling may spoil the party though - Best of Three runs without blinkers so could improve, but Brown takes the ride on the stable mate - who knows?
R5: The first of the handicaps - value choice for me is Lord Windsor, who I think is going to try to go start to finish with the light weight; not a lot of the rest can be totally ignored - even The Who has 2nd fav Savage Wind held on their penultimate meeting.
R6: Competitive fillies and mares sprint handicap - Summer Adieu looks to have a lot in her favor and represents fair value imo; main dangers imo are Margot on Stage and Fanzene, but obvious chances to some of the others - mainly Mary Stuart, Indira and Phenomenal
R7: Exciting sprint; I like De Var Hyt at the odds - main danger imo is Vulcan who also like this trip; Jimmi Choo coming back to his best but has an outside draw, while all of Tayba, Abbotsbury and Dennis the Menace, hold some sort of chance although all 3 seem better over 1200
R8: Toughest race on the card imo; not much separating many runners on form; value choice for me after a good last run over this trip, is Gem's A Plenty; but all of Mr Hurricane, Strongmind, Golden Globe, Viking Hero, Malachite, King of Magic and Maji Moto need consideration.
Enjoy (tu)
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