Louis & Karel - talking Merit Ratings

MissT wrote: Could anyone clear up 2 issues for me please
1) are the merit ratings done by a panel of handicappers or just 1 nominated handicapper
2) who decides who the line horse will be when evaluating a race.
How often is the line horse being used questionable?

MissT...you have a problem....if you fold your thumb and index finger....there are THREE digits still unfolded...as is the number of questions you had.

Ziets, you are not quite correct...but I agree with the sentiment. Taking all those factors into account is still reliant on interpretation. Also, betting strategy, staking plans and of course the biggy...discipline.
Doing what you say may not make you rich but the odds are good you will have a lot more fun punting than the average joe.

pirates wrote: lg a tough race but would side with gimmethemoney who doesnt seem to run 2 same races in a row and then al azraq who has plenty ability but clearly issues..rebel to the fore although best in has her 2nd run within a short space of time after a long rest and being so lightly raced clearly has many issues ..alpine glacier much improved with tongue tie is my 3rd pick but also runs close to his last race behind your filly ..just a bit off the topic but after many requests to the team at computaform they still fail to contact the hcaper regarding the ratings of horses if they havent had more than 3 runs a prime example being the 2yo quinlan in the 6th and also the 4th race today where you have flexible fugitive and ideal secret taking on older horses...if you havent got the ratings even if unofficial how do you have a best weighted column and how do you have an average merit rating for the race ..the mind boggles

top example / assessment of the unknown ability of the 2 year olds..

Ziets you sure every race/horse is looked at by a panel?

I read the above posts with utmost interest....MR systems or race figure whichever you choose is the lifeline of form studying...but that's besides the point

I think its Easy that suggested in one of his earlier posts that plated races often throw upset results with horses being 20 pounds off winning and that's the reason he doesn't like plated races.

if that's the reasoning then you should be detesting the merit rating in handicapping because its with this very merit rating that you base your argument that this horse or that horse is 20 pounds in or 20 pounds out in the weights in the plated races and like LG says its a contradiction if ever I saw one.


I want to ask a question here:
does anyone here think that if a race is run 3 times over if the same result is going to occur as that of the first running....same conditions same weights same racetrack same going,etc etc etc

now if the answer is yes ..then you must believe in merit ratings
if the answer is no as I believe it is,...then MR hold no water..and like I said I am in the latter camp....and couple all this with manipulation and assumption and one persons assessment of a race...there are just too many variables I feel that ONE CAN SAY FOR CERTAIN ....that this is the horses ability as opposed to another.
So in conclusuion IF YOU HAVE LUCK IN RACING ...and a bit of intuition ...you go for it

and forget handicaps...if you want to lable a horse ...lable it in the maidens...and if you still want to lable the horse again then up to 2 or 3 runs after the maidens if you think it still improving....otherwise take you exotics and load up

Couple of members have said that can't open Louis's file

sucker


I aint got the time but ill just conclude that in a handicap they don't carry the same weight and I handicap

fairview race 8 tomorrow is a very compressed race. there is exactly a 16 point difference and an 8 kilo difference between top and bottom weight. IMVHO this race is a good example of a perfect handicap. If a horse wins this race by more than 1 length then he/she could possibly be followed up with.

NOW the reason I'm looking at this different to you and my mate Louis and a few others is the handicap is now become the go to race for trainers in SA. SA trainers are trying to win every single race and therefore are in theory doing a good thing.

In the UK trainers are trying to maximise a horses winning chances by determining its handicap mark and getting it to race on the mark or below it as often as possible. Some might think this is cheating but its not hard to spot , the horse running midfield to lower its handicap.

IN sa though you cannot disregard any horse because they all trying EVEN if it buggers up the horses chances of winning more races.

I would love to know Grant Marouns take on the matter, after all he has Golden Man as STAUNCH 75 a certainty at 70 and competitive at 80.

if that horse in fairview wins by a head...hard held...typical Andrew Fortune kinda ride...then is it under suffererance next time with the runner up if they meet in a handicap next start.
is a kilo or 2 that critical to a horse that weighs 500 kg
I rather watch the reruns look at the pace ,conditions on the day,draw ,positioning,opposition it's taking on,current form of Stable, etc etc and that could equate to more than 10kg or 5 lengths that I am looking for in some cases rather than look in the race card and try to find The MR and use that as an exact science...
there's many times I watch a race and say this will go In again next time in a similar field or same field even if it's weighted to lose as there's something you've spotted

I'm speechless

You are disregarding 100 s of years of weight translating to distance and handicap.

I cannot help you apologies.

Of course your eyes and judgment matter

But weight stops trains and this whole thread and Louis argument

Is about horses carrying too much weight i his opinion

And finding winners in handicaps has nothing to do with allowing middle horses to win more races

no ..I'm disregarding that races are run on paper