Vaal Sand Jottings - Tuesday 10/06

R1

1 A PROPOS - Sturgeon/Erasmus - Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Turf form moderate at best. Possibly not stable elect. Draw 1 potential negative. 3rd run after 17 week break. Watching brief.

2 ABILENE QUEEN - Nhlapo/Erasmus - 3rd career run, 2nd sand. Well beaten on sand run on debut by 10l over c/d and looks held. Possibly not stable elect. Draw 5 ok. Pass.

4 BY JOVE - Simons/Stenger - Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Turf form moderate at best. Draw 13 potential ok. Watching brief.

5 COCO GOLD - Munger/Erasmus - Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Turf form very poor, 5 runs. Appie takes 4 off. Draw 4 possible negative. Watching brief.

6 DOUBLE RIDGE - Wrogemann/Sage - 3 poor turf efforts followed by 3rd on sand debut, 1.25l behind LG, received outside betting support. Breeding - positives. Draw 10 potential ok. Fair chance.

7 FIFTH HARMONY - Storey/Tolmay - Debut. No positive breeding indicator. Appie takes 1.5 off. Draw 15 possibly ok. Watching brief.

8 FLY MINNALOUSHE - Maujean/Moffatt - Sand debut. 1 turf run beaten 8l over 1200, backed 20s into 12. Small positive breeding indicator. Draw 14 possibly ok. Possible.

9 GREEK TAXI - Yeo/Erasmus - Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Beaten 27l only turf run when slow away. Possibly not stable elect. Draw 7 probable positive. Watching brief.

10 IT'S MAGIC - Brown/Erasmus - Course debut. Potential negative breeding indicator. Turf form moderate at best. Bingo 3rd of 6 beaten 4.25l. Seemingly stable elect but questionable. Draw 8 possible positive. Blinkers tried for the first time. Watching brief.

11 LAVENDER GIRL - Greyling/Erasmus - 1 turf run a 4l 5th, followed by silver over c/d when 1.25l ahead of DR. Breeding, small positive. Possibly not stable elect but questionable as ridden horse on both previous outings. Draw 2 potential negative. Chance.

12 MULA KATE - V.Rensburg/Erasmus - Debut. Potential small negative breeding indicator. Possibly not stable elect. Draw 9 potential positive. Watching brief.

13 NKOMO - V.D.Merwe/Maroun - Sand debut. Small positive breeding indicator. Turf form poor, 7 runs. Draw 3 potential negative. R1 e/w.

14 ONE SEXY LADY - Aucharuz/Erasmus - Debut. No positive breeding indicator. Possibly not stable elect. Draw 11 potential ok. Watching brief.

15 PEEDEE F - Chambers/Spies - Course debut. No positive breeding indicator. Bingo run beaten 7.5l. potentially not the strongest field. Draw 12 potential ok. Will need to improve on Bingo run but stable hard to assess recently.

Not a lot to go on and it would not take much for one of the sand debutants to take to the surface and win well. The two I will take a chance with are Fly Minnaloushe and, only if a very big price, Nkomo. Both those with Bingo experience did little to inspire confidence but Brown stays on Its Magic and tries blinkers. If it comes down to course experience then Double Ridge and Lavender Girl should fight it out. On their last meeting LG holds a 1.25l advantage but, I have a concern with LG's low draw here and, although she probably has more scope for improvement of the two, that may give DR the edge... DOUBLE RIDGE x LAVENDER GIRL x FLY MINNALOUSHE

R2

1 JIMMIJAGGA - V.Rensburg/Pettigrew. 0.55l (2.25l ahead of SB) and 2.25l (off 18 week break, 1l behind WT, 0.65l behind TL) defeats in 2 c/d runs. On 2nd run after rest. Draw 1 potential negative. Chance.

2 SIROCCO BAY - V.D.Merwe/Gray St J. Two 3rds (1600 and 1450) in 5 c runs, beaten 2.75l in only c/d run (2.2l behind JJ). Returns from 17 week break. Draw 7 potential positive. Unlikely.

3 WILD THING - Khumalo/Magner. Three c blanks before a 1.5l 3rd and 1.25l 2nd (0.35l ahead of TL and 1l ahead of JJ) both over c/d. Draw 2 potential negative. Not out of the top 4 in last 8 runs. Combo is 44% for places (70 runs). Chance.

4 DELICIOUS DAMOWIN - Lerena/Woodruff. Beaten 7l in only c run (1450). No positive breeding indicator. Well beaten 4 turf runs since at 1160 or up. On 3rd run after 18 week rest. Draw 3 potential negative. Combo both in good form and as a combo are 30% win and 50% place (10 runs). Has to be respected but pointers are against.

5 WONT WAIT - Bester/Hutcheson. 4 poor turf runs and beaten 12.5l only sand run (1200, drawn 11/12, off 48 week break). Potential negative in breeding. On 3rd run after 48 week break. Draw 9 potential positive. Improbable.

6 KING'S CONSENT - Mienie/Laird A. Debut. No positive breeding indicator. Draw 8 probable positive. Combo are 40% places (100 runs). Not to be overlooked.

7 CAPUCHE - Maujean/Mayhew. Debut. No positive breeding indicator. Draw 4 potential negative. Watching brief.

8 SEA KNIGHT - Simons/Matchett. Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Draw 6 probable positive. Beaten 7.75l only turf run when backed from 20s into 28/10. Watching brief.

9 TIGER'S LEGACY - Fourie/Tolmay. 3 average at best turf runs followed by 1.6l 4th over c/d (0.35l behind WT, 0.65l ahead of JJ). Found outside support 25s into 16. Draw 5 probable ok. Chance.

Sea Knight has to be respected on the money lto, King's Consent on the combo especially with a debut horse and Delicious Damowin on the combo. But, none of them have anything strong enough to convince me to support them so for the winner I'll go with the course form which shows Jimmijagga, Wild Thing and Tiger's Legacy closely matched with 1l separating the three of them. JJ was coming off a rest and could come on for the run but the 1 draw is a concern, although in a field of only 9 it might be a less significant negative and WT is in 2. TL is probably drawn best of them and has more scope for improvement, certainly one would think more than WT though the latter has been very consistent recently. Could be close but I'll chance JJ overcoming the draw... JIMMIJAGGA x TIGER'S LEGACY x WILD THING

R3

1 SPIAGGIA - Khumalo/Laird A. Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Turf form decent, 5 top 3s in 8 runs, fav in 5. Draw 3 probable positive. Returning from 10 week break. Jock in form and combo are 33% win and 56% places (8 runs). Definite chance if taking to the surface.

2 ROLLING RUBY - Strydom/Matchett. 2 silvers in 7 c runs but as mentioned in previous jottings, excuses in some and runs probably better than figures suggest. 2nd (1600) lto (RTA 5.5l back) and PS retains ride. Combo 40% win, 60% place (5 runs). Draw 9 probable negative. Often loses ground at the start. Chance if away well and overcoming draw.

3 RUN THE ARROW - Naude/Stenger. 3 c runs, 2 over 1600 when well beaten and a silver over c/d, probably her best career run. Draw 7 potential negative. Well held on last run by RR but outside chance back over 1450.

4 VANDALUCIA - Munger/Francis. Beaten 22.75l (1200) and 10l (c/d) in only 2 c runs and turf form poor. Draw 6 ok. Appie takes 4 off. Only 1l behind RR over 1600 (drawn 10/12). Highly improbable.

5 SHE'S GOT STYLE - Marwing Wes/Adamson. Beaten 14.25l (1000) on debut in only c run. Subsequent turf form poor, 5 runs (1200-1600). No positive breeding indicator. Draw 10 probable negative. Appie takes 2.5 off. Pass.

6 GAME PLAN - Chambers/Maree. Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Turf form poor, 8 runs. Draw 5 possible ok. Pass.

7 GREY QUEEN - Pretorius/Rahilly. Beaten 48.25l (c/d) in only c run. Turf form poor, 4 runs (1450-1600). No positive breeding indicator. Draw 4 potential positive. Combo 71% places (11 runs). Highly improbable but was backed 25s to 12s for sand run.

8 CAYENNE CLUB - Lerena/Webber. Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Turf form average, 2 runs. Draw 2 probable positive. Jockey in form and combo 71% places (7 runs). Place % has to be respected from the draw, possible.

9 DAWN DAY - Wrogemann/Moffatt. Beaten 9.25l on debut (turf 1200) and followed with an 8.25l defeat over c/d (0.75l ahead of RR, 1.75l of Vandalucia). Draw 8 potential negative. Combo 32% places (100 runs). Improbable.

10 RUN FOR REVELRY - Mariba/Tarry. Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Turf form moderate. Draw 1 probable positive. Watching brief.

Spaggia should win if taking to the surface but the odds are likely to be short so I'll look for value elsewhere... though that is not easy. Rolling Ruby seemed to run in patches in her penultimate run and improved lto under PS, I think despite the draw she will come out best of the three from that penultimate run. Run The Arrow is likely to be more competitive at this d... ROLLING RUBY x RUN THE ARROW x DAWN DAY

R4 Steelwing on his last run looks to hold Boy Oh Boy and Winter Mischief fairly comfortably and must come here with a very good chance of following up. But Boy Oh Boy won well lto and is much better drawn than in that last meeting of the three and should be more competitive. So could WM who was returning from 26 weeks off and was supported from 10s to 4s in that last meeting and now has the blinkers. Nigel Mansell could be thereabouts if taking to the surface but there are no positive indicators in the breeding to boost confidence. Ajuba has 5 top 3s in 7 c runs (3 in 4 c/d) and is not without hope but comes back from 18 weeks off and is drawn 10. Eternity has not been seen on c for a while but was 2nd and 1st in his 2 c runs and from the 1 box could also be very competitive. Imperial King won his maiden well when supported from 7s into 3s and has a chance but will probably find this much tougher. Deckie Boy, Rockingandrolling and Perfect Trip look improbable winners for me. Plenty of opportunities and with little confidence... ETERNITY x STEELWING x WINTER MISCHIEF

R5 Vulcan has been somewhat disappointing in his last 2 visits here and I am of the impression he prefers the turf. that said, his first run here was decent so it would be no major surprise to see him improve again on the surface. Storm Incoming has a gold and silver from 4 c/d runs. He has performed well from wide draws previously and the addition of the big weight make this a tough ask but still in with a fair chance imo. LG's Wishful Heart and Shepherds's Song also look held by DD. The former has a tricky draw of 9 and SS is my preference of the two with Striker up and the 4 box but is more of a possible than a probable for me. Have supported Faboolosity last twice and though he has had excuses on both occasions, he is not for me from the 13 box over 1200. (Will be p1ssed off if he wins! lol). Big Cat Diary is possibly better over this trip and is another with a squeak despite the high draw (12) and of those drawn high, I prefer the chances of a couple of others. Lesley Strong has a good draw in 3 and some fair form but I am not convinced by him, it would be no surprise to see him win but I could not support him with confidence here. Sole Mio does make some appeal though from the 1 box, he has appeared twice on c over 1000 up against some decent sorts and holds some of these rivals. I think he could be competitive here. Duty Dance would be my clear choice as he holds a number of these rivals quite comfortably but he has drawn 10. It has to be a big concern but he has won convincingly over c/d previously when drawn 7. Some small idiot possibilities... Tiger Tales was well beaten on his only c appearance over 1000 but has won over this trip at Bingo and there are positive breeding indicators. Prefer others on known form but will have a small e/w investment assuming a decent price. Passion Pleaser has been poor of late and looks held by Duty Dance but 10 weeks off may have freshened him up and he usually performs better from low draws though he may prefer one even lower than 5. Three time winner in 11 over c/d, a small e/w idiot assuming a big price. Memeza makes his sand debut and there is a possible indicator on breeding he may take to the surface. His recent turf form has been poor and he has a difficult draw in 8 but is my R1 horse if the price allows. Despite the draw, I'll have to go with DD but I am not sure he will represent great value so may just play small idiot bets... DUTY DANCE x STORM INCOMING x SOLE MIO

R6

1 TAYBA - Munger/De Kock. Only defeat in 4 c visits was when reported not striding and beaten 33l over 1450. Two wins over c/d and one over 1000. Given a 33 week break after the 1450 defeat and has had 2 fair turf runs since. Big weight is alleviated somewhat by the appie claim and with a airly decent draw in 5 she has decent prospects here.

2 CLUB CAPTAIN - Brown/Erasmus. Has 5 wins and 10 top 3s in 33 c runs but a blank in 6 over c/d. With that record and coming from the 12 box she is not one I could support in this field.

3 CAPTAIN'S DELIGHT - Simons/Houdalakis. Sand debut. Decent indicator on breeding that she could take to the surface. Drawn 1. Had some poor draws on the turf and tries this shorter trip for the first time. Has to be considered.

4 CANTE LIBRE - Chambers/Matchett. Seems to have lost form and despite the fact she is a 3 time c/d winner (11 attempts) I can't have her on current form from box 13.

5 CASA NOSTRA - Herholdt/Laird A. Has a very good 2-2-1 record in 5 c/d runs but his last run here (1450) and last few on the turf have shown a sharp decline in form. At her best would have a definite chance and, though she has run well from wide draws before, the 12 box won't help her chances. Not out of it if the c/d returns her to form but, in her current form, from 12, she would be something of a risky proposition in a fairly decent field.

6 WEEKEND SPECIAL - Strydom/Matchett. Seems to relish this d and struggle at most of the others with a 6-0-1 record in 12 attempts at this d (all surfaces) and 0-3-0 in 12 at other trips. Is 2-0-1 in 7 c/d runs. Also seems to like all things Vaal rather than Turffontein where she has just one silver (debut) in 7 runs. Convincing 2.25l winner over c/d in penultimate and then beaten 8.5l over 1000 lto. Has an ok draw in 6 and PS retains the ride, has to be considered a big runner based on the penultimate run and on the d record but was behind a few of these in that last run over 1000.

7 LA TIGRESSE - Fourie/Laird A. Sand debut. Positive indicators in the breeding that she could take to the surface. Very good return from 39 weeks off with a 1.25l 2nd over the Turf Inside Track 1000 when drawn widest of 14. Decent turf record at this d and potentially could run a big race from the 2 box.

8 APPROXIMATE - Storey/Tolmay. Was beaten 6.75l over c/d on last visit to the c when drawn 1. 3.5kg better off with that rival but now drawn 10. Previous c/d effort to that, he was beaten 12l by Casa Nostra. Hard to see the form being overturned.

9 SECRET MAGOK - V.Rensburg/Pettigrew. 2-0-2 in 6 c runs (1-0-1 in 3 c/d). Was 2.25l behind CN the last she went over c/d and is 2kg better off. CC was 2l further back and is 0.5kg worse off. Approximate a further 7.75l behind. Tricky draw here in 8 and will probably give a decent account of herself but not the most likely to win imo.

10 TINCHY STRYDER - Khumalo/Tarry. Sand debut. A little in the breeding to suggest she might take to the surface but has had consecutive 16, 13 and now 10 week breaks. Has a good draw in 4 and is a possible but not one I could back with no info on the reasons for the breaks and whether the run will be needed etc. A great example where stable info is so important in making decisions and the lack of it simply leaves the punter in the dark. Can only be a watching brief for me.

12 SPRING BLASTER - V.D.Merwe/Ferreira. Good effort on sand debut lto when a 0.25l 2nd over 1000 with CC (now 2kg better off for 4.5l), WS (1.5kg for 8.25l) and CL (16.25l) behind. Is 1-2-0 in 3 d runs on the turf and from the 3 box here looks to have a big shout.

13 LADY CASEY - Reserve/Moffatt. Won maiden in facile fashion at the 8th time of asking in penultimate run having gone close a few times previously. Beaten 6.75l lto over 1450 and back down in trip here. Not the most likely for me with the 9 box but not entirely without hope.

Quite a few who look to have very good claims in one way or other. Although there are a number of others with a chance, and the race might be best left alone from a punting perspective, I've personally narrowed it down to... Tayba, Captain's Delight, Weekend Special, La Tigresse and Spring Blaster. Risky, but I can't shake the feeling that La T is going to really enjoy the surface... LA TIGRESSE x SPRING BLASTER x TAYBA

R7

1 JULIE DOOLITTLE - Lerena/Magner. Won a reasonable maiden on debut over 1000 here and has run with some credit in 5 subsequent turf runs. Is on 2nd run following a 17 week rest. Has been campaigning between 1400 and 1600 since that debut win and drops back in trip here. Definite chance if overcoming a tricky draw of 9.

2 LOVE FROM AL - Aucharuz/De Kock. Sand debut. Probable positive breeding indicator. Turf form good, debut 2nd and then won maiden after 24 week break. Reported not striding lto and returns here after 48 weeks off. Draw 14 probable negative. Watching brief.

3 FORTRESS MINE - Brown/Zaki. A 3l 5th (after 14 week rest) and a 5l 3rd in her 2 c visits both over c/d. Has a chance but the 12 draw is a big concern.

4 STEP IT UP - Simons/Botes. Course debut. Returned from 27 weeks off to win at Bingo and follow that up with a silver at the same venue (both over 1000) before being beaten 5l on the turf. Has rarely campaigned over more than 1000 and the d is a concern. Draw 12 probable negative. Watching brief.

5 ELEGANT PARADE - V.D.Merwe/Gray St J. A 25/1 idiot winner thank you very much on sand debut and 3rd career run lto over 1600. Had previously run 2 poor turf efforts over 1200. The drop back in trip to 1200 is a concern and she will find it tougher here but drawn well in 3 and has a chance.

6 TACIT TIGER - Wrogemann/Matchett. 8 top 3 in 11 c visits but seemingly not at her best recently. Drawn in 6 and if finding her best form she is not one to be discounted but difficult to promote her chances with any great confidence currently.

7 LADY JUSTICE - Danielson/Azzie. Sand debut. Potential positive breeding indicator. Turf form moderate. Draw 5 ok. Chance if taking to the surface.

8 OPEN THE BANK - Sampson/Rahilly. Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Turf form moderate at best. Draw 11 probable negative. Unlikely.

9 ICE GODDESS - Strydom/Francis. Seemingly somewhat inconsistent but won well in her last run over c/d and generally seems to go well under PS. Potentially a decent chance from the 2 box.

10 SAVANNAH MONTANA - Khumalo/Zaki. 4 time winner in 18 c runs, 2 in 11 over c/d. Raced decently on turf in last 4 but her most recent sand runs were disappointing for the most part. Trainer in good form and Khumalo up, 7 box, chance.

11 BRAVE PRINCESS - Penny/Ferreira. On 2nd run after a 17 week rest. Not been closer than 8l of the winner in 6 c visits since winning on sand debut. Drawn 8. Pass.

12 MAYAN DESTINY - Naude/Matchett. Won maiden at the 15th time of asking lto over c/d. Has a decent draw in 4 but I would be surprised if the form is strong enough to see her following up.

Though there are a couple of others in with chances, I found my top 3 relatively quickly... ICE GODDESS x JULIE DOLITTLE x SAVANNAH MONTANA

R8

1 SCRUM HALF - Zackey/Van Zyl. Sand debut. No positive breeding indicator. Turf form poor last 2 after coming out the maidens. Draw 6 potential positive. Watching brief.

2 EXTRAORDINAIRE - Marwing Wes/Matchett. Poor form recently. Pass.

3 KATCH - Yeo/Van Zyl. Sand debut. Probable positive breeding indicators. Turf form poor of late with one exception. Draw 9 potential positive. 2nd run after 14 week break. Takes on the boys but may possibly be worth a small e/w idiot.

4 RODEO DANDY - Munger/Zaki. Trainer in form and appie takes weight off but last few on the sand have been disappointing. Decent draw in 8 and could well win with the low weight but, I would like to see improvement on the sand before I support her as I doubt the odds will be great.

6 BALDWIN - Danielson/Azzie. Sand debut. Potential positive breeding indicator. Turf form comparatively decent, run mostly on "wet" conditions. Stable debut. Draw 10 potential positive. 1st run after 38 week break. Possibilities if taking to the surface and fit.

7 SCARLET VEIL - Maujean/Maroun. Not been on the sand since Aug 2013 when she followed a decent 3rd with a disappointing effort, both over c/d. Up against the boys and not one I would back now but not without hope if at her best, watching brief for me.

8 BLACK PEPPER - Khumalo/Goosen. Runner-up on sand debut at Bingo was followed up with a win lto at the same venue, both at this trip. He will need to bring that form with him here though as he has yet to be in the top 3 in 6 c runs. Potential positive draw in 14 and Khulalo up with both he and the stable in good form recently.

9 EAGLE FACE - Brown/Erasmus. Yet to win in 13 c runs but has put in some decent runs and has 3 silvers. A decent 2nd at Bingo also in penultimate run. Draw 13 potential positive. Chance.

10 LEGAL ACTION - V.D.Merwe/Erasmus C. Two c visits have seen an defeats of 11.5l over c/d (May /13) and lto of 5.5l over 1200, though she was only 1.25l off the runner-up. Not the best overall recent record but a repeat of that last effort would give her a chance at this lower level.

11 KING'S WILD - Appie/Erasmus C. Was beaten 30l in her only sand run to date back in Sept and recent turf record does not improve confidence. Good draw in 7 and tries the blinkers but no more than a watching brief for me on course re-appearance.

12 HOLY SMOKEY - Nhlapo/Van Eck. Won on sand debut over c/d in only 2nd career run and although she has a 0-0-4 record in 10 subsequent c runs, she is 1-0-1 in 2 over c/d. Has taken consecutive 42 and 16 week rests so could need it and has a probably negative draw in 2. She was only 0.25l behind EF last time she went over c/d but with the breaks and draw, she can be no more than a watching brief for me.

13 JOHNNIE QUID - Fourie/De Beer. Beaten 10l and 6l in his 2 c visits and following a 18 week rest, he was 6.25l behind BP at Bingo lto. Should strip fitter and is 4kg better off with that rival. A sort of possible but highly improbable!

14 KWAAIWATER - Naude/Maree. Very poor from the stalls last two followed a good silver over c/d, with 4 of these rivals behind, when returning from a 12 week rest 3 runs back. Comes off a 10 week break here during which time they might have worked on her from the stalls. If that issue is resolved then she should not be discounted and might be worth a small idiot e/w if the price permits.

15 JOLLY GOOD SIR - Greyling/Erasmus. Is 0-0-1 in 8 c/d runs but that could mean nothing with this stable and her form is full of inconsistencies. Has generally been running well on the turf recently though and if outside draws are favoured she will have a chance.

16 ROYAL STOCK - Herholdt/Maree. Two poor efforts since coming out of the maidens at the 36th attempt (beat BofA 0.05l) three runs back over c/d. They were over 1200 ad 1450 though and if you liked te scratched BofA then I would suggest a small flutter on this one too as the price is likely to be much bigger but, she does have the potentially negative draw of 1.

17 TUESDAYS CHILD - Reserve/Francis. Has no top 3s in 5 c visits and not been here in a while. Recent turf form does not inspire confidence. Should be a pass.

Quite a few possibles but nothing with any great appeal so I am going to take my chances and favour the sand debutants and idiots... BALDWIN x KATCH x KWAAIWATER

As always, please use the daily thread for your comments etc

Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)

Absolutely amazing stuff Engels

Excellent analysis...started reading at 12 and just finished !!

Hope you picked a good few of the winners...see that you had Katch, Julia DoLittle, SoleMio, etc...well done... X( -D

Good stuff Englander....nice to see you back in the saddle....(tu)(tu)...