Durban July WEIGHTS

bayern Wrote:

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> How to start a fight - wherever Legislate runs,
> the two Woodruff 3 years olds will finish ahead of
> him! Why? Watch the DN 2000 again - once Legislate
> hit the front , it was a matter of how far he'd
> win by. He wasn't eased up at the end, he was
> ridden out. He hung from the outside to the middle
> of the track. When horses hang during the running,
> they are either looking for company, tiring or
> feeling something. The Woody horses were finishing
> a lot stronger.


Don't want to fight, but it could also be argued that Legislate passed RC as if he was standing still - imo you also need to take the 'timing' of the run into consideration - I think the jock (Richard ?) will be told to sit a bit longer in the July - for me, at this stage, these 3 should all be the same price, as there is nothing between them; draws will also play a part - let's for argument's sake say Legislate draws in 5 and LtK and RC draw 15 and 6 respectively - would you still think the Woodruff runners will beat Legislate?

For me the big difference between RC and others is the improvement to come. RC has more scope than the others...i hope it will tell. I dont think Woody knows how good he is. We will only see on the track.

Press Wrote:

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> Think Jet Belle will make the final field?


I think she should - and if she does, she is a big runner at the weights - will be 2 kg's better off with Cherry on the Top and finished in front of her in last year's Woolavington - worth a few rand at 115/1 imo

Frodo Wrote:

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> bayern Wrote:
>

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>

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> > How to start a fight - wherever Legislate runs,
> > the two Woodruff 3 years olds will finish ahead
> of
> > him! Why? Watch the DN 2000 again - once
> Legislate
> > hit the front , it was a matter of how far he'd
> > win by. He wasn't eased up at the end, he was
> > ridden out. He hung from the outside to the
> middle
> > of the track. When horses hang during the
> running,
> > they are either looking for company, tiring or
> > feeling something. The Woody horses were
> finishing
> > a lot stronger.
>
>
> Don't want to fight, but it could also be argued
> that Legislate passed RC as if he was standing
> still - imo you also need to take the 'timing' of
> the run into consideration - I think the jock
> (Richard ?) will be told to sit a bit longer in
> the July - for me, at this stage, these 3 should
> all be the same price, as there is nothing between
> them; draws will also play a part - let's for
> argument's sake say Legislate draws in 5 and LtK
> and RC draw 15 and 6 respectively - would you
> still think the Woodruff runners will beat
> Legislate?

Yes, i firmly believe that. The interference suffered by RC made it look like Legislate left him for dead, but on the evidence of the finish, the two Woody horses will definitely appreciate the extra. It is on the assumption that because Dynasty won the July, Legislate will stay, and (probably) should. If you adopt that aproach, then you must assume RC will stay as well, being out of Horse Chestnut (won over 2400m) and LTK (won over 2400m) has proven himself over further.

The Daily News confuses me. Both Legislate and LTK were out of their ground, Rakes Chestnut got badly hampered. All 3 will obviously be big runners and probably run 2nd, 3rd and 4th to COTT.

bayern Wrote:

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> Frodo Wrote:
>

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>

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> > bayern Wrote:
> >
>

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>
> >

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> > > How to start a fight - wherever Legislate
> runs,
> > > the two Woodruff 3 years olds will finish
> ahead
> > of
> > > him! Why? Watch the DN 2000 again - once
> > Legislate
> > > hit the front , it was a matter of how far
> he'd
> > > win by. He wasn't eased up at the end, he was
> > > ridden out. He hung from the outside to the
> > middle
> > > of the track. When horses hang during the
> > running,
> > > they are either looking for company, tiring
> or
> > > feeling something. The Woody horses were
> > finishing
> > > a lot stronger.
> >
> >
> > Don't want to fight, but it could also be
> argued
> > that Legislate passed RC as if he was standing
> > still - imo you also need to take the 'timing'
> of
> > the run into consideration - I think the jock
> > (Richard ?) will be told to sit a bit longer in
> > the July - for me, at this stage, these 3
> should
> > all be the same price, as there is nothing
> between
> > them; draws will also play a part - let's for
> > argument's sake say Legislate draws in 5 and
> LtK
> > and RC draw 15 and 6 respectively - would you
> > still think the Woodruff runners will beat
> > Legislate?
>
> Yes, i firmly believe that. The interference
> suffered by RC made it look like Legislate left
> him for dead, but on the evidence of the finish,
> the two Woody horses will definitely appreciate
> the extra. It is on the assumption that because
> Dynasty won the July, Legislate will stay, and
> (probably) should. If you adopt that aproach, then
> you must assume RC will stay as well, being out of
> Horse Chestnut (won over 2400m) and LTK (won over
> 2400m) has proven himself over further.


I don't think the distance of 2200 is a problem for any of them - all I am trying to say is that one should not automatically assume that the Woodruff runners will definitely finish in front of Legislate on the evidence of the DN - Legislate accelerated pass RC easily (before any interference) - timing of the run will be crucial in the July.

And it could also be that all 3 of them are too close in the weights to the older horses - I guess we will see on the first Saturday in July (tu)

Frodo Wrote:

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> Press Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Think Jet Belle will make the final field?
>
>
> I think she should - and if she does, she is a big
> runner at the weights - will be 2 kg's better off
> with Cherry on the Top and finished in front of
> her in last year's Woolavington - worth a few rand
> at 115/1 imo

Frodo, thats exactly my thinking too... I dont buy the fact that she will not stay the distance. She proved that in the Woolavington last year. Also, DoYouRemember came out and ran a cracker in the July as well. I really like this horse as a shroody... Hoping she gets in.

Jet Explorer scratched