blueyonder001 wrote: agree Peekay load cannon looks a blinder
canon already loaded and took doubles with nigel mansell. Easier field this time and distance suited
Peekay, agree with you there. NM right field and right trip, was well out at the weights last time and the 1600 will suit better. 4/1 looks a great price.
Richie I hope you get on too.
Took the 4/1 yeaterday and have doubles running onto my horse to place tomorrow in the 2nd.
NM will show his class again today.
We were on the same page last time out Richie with SARVE and NM, today SAMOGAN my only banker, without sounding bullish I believe SAM will take a ton of beating.
Even for a sand card there seems to me to be a lot of ifs/maybes particularly with the first timers to the sand throughout the card. Rapidly lost interest in the card in truth and with the usual void of stable info (get it blardy sorted in "a rush"!!!) then too much guesswork involved for me and little worth chancing in the way of value. For what its worth...
R1 is a bit of a nightmare! Spiaggia has finished ahead of Dawn Day in both of their last meetings, one on the turf, but those were over 1400/1450 and this shorter trip probably favours DD. In addition, DD has much the better of the draw and Striker takes the ride. Lto DD looked the winner 200 out over this c/d and her defeat could well have been due to a saddle slip though not exactly sure at what point that occurred. Even so, the strength of that field is a little questionable imo. Depending on the significance of that saddle slip, Coral Key, from the Spies stable, should not be immediately discounted as lines through his run behind Midnite Spirit puts him well in contention. And should that be the case then Hvar must also be a runner, having finished 1.75l in front of CK over 1000 lto and that was her debut run. Hvar is drawn 7 and CK in 8. Also worthy of strong consideration is Spellbound. This one has been rested 29 weeks after reportedly finishing lame when taking on winners (from the Spies yard) over the turf 1000. She finished a very respectable 3rd that day running on well. If all is well then from a good draw of 5, with something of a positive in the breeding indicating she could take to the surface, then she might prove to be the one they all have to beat. DD has three stablemates making their debut, two of which have potential positives for the surface in the breeding, Isikhati and Sputnik Sweetheart. The latter is probably the more likely with DD's regular pilot, Gunter, up from the 2 box, a small e/w, but Isikhati will also take R1 e/w of mine from the 6 box assuming a very big price. Woodruff also has a debutant out, Agalia and this one must also be respected from the 1 box but there is no clear sand positives in the breeding for me, though that is not unusual for the stable, one I often find hard to read on the sand. Tough deciding but... DAWN DAY x SPELLBOUND x SPUTNIK SWEETHEART
R2 Green Rock was a fair 3rd lto but I really don't think the form will prove to be great and at a short price with a number of his rivals having positives in the breeding then one to oppose for me. The most obvious on breeding is possibly Woodruff's debutant The Captain's Tune who cost R600k but he is also short in the market and there are other possibilities in this field so I'll chance going against him. There are a few nutters about. Intent does not look strong with the jockey booking , drawn widest and there is nothing in the breeding as such that appeals but worth noting Seismic is related to Shiver n Shake who is a very smart sand performer over the sprints. To different degrees, Private Game, Pack ice and La Tourelle have all been poor on the turf to date but there are positives for the sand in the breeding, the first two mentioned are also drawn well. Two with perhaps more obvious claims are the Spies debutant Southfork who has a breeding positive and the 1 box and the SJG debutant Take A Hike who though there is no obvious positive in the breeding has Striker booked for the ride and the stable has been pretty strong recently, the 9 draw is a negative but not to be overlooked. Southfork has also now (supposedly) been backed into a price which makes no appeal. As with R1 I am unlikely to get involved, too much guesswork and just priced out of interest. I'll just go the complete nutter route then...TAvKE A HIKE x PACK ICE x LA TOURELLE
R3 Those with experience look a pretty poor bunch so it could come down to a Woodruff stable battle with his two debutants who somehow also managed to get themselves the 1 and 2 boxes. There is no strong breeding indicator for me for either though and purely on jockey bookings I would side with Starcraft Prince over Seven Roses. Price wise though they are not for me and I am getting tired already of saying that on this card and losing enthusiasm for it quickly! The booking of Striker again by the SJG yard is a little eye-catching but on form there is little to recommend about Just A Thought and he is drawn wide in 10. Not sure that trainer Kethro has many visitors to the Vaal so Toughy Smith also caught the eye a little, improved on the Poly lto and has Sturgeon booked from a good draw in 3 with a positive in the breeding for the sand. Doesn't seem big intent with Lucky's debutant Cockade and he doesn't seem the likely winner to me though there is something of a positive in the breeding. Gunter is up on Moffatt's sand newcomer Like An Arrow but very average turf form, no breeding indicator and a high draw. The only other one worth a mention for me is Tarry's Tiger Lodge whose only run to date was a poor one on the turf under an appie but now gets Khumalo up and there is a good chance he will take to the surface on breeding, drawn ok in 5. Again, at the prices, I'll go idiot and hunch with almost zero confidence lol... TIGER LODGE x TOUGHY SMITH x JUST A THOUGHT
Bollox to this, losing interest rapidly lol
R4 Isphan (was the choice before the scratching so another where no value now)
R5 Jade Vine
R6 Secret Magok (but sh1t draw)
R1 HVAR and SPELLBOUND – If Spellbound is fit and well then first two.
R2 GREEN ROCK – if there are no flyers amongst the newcomers he should win
R3 TOUGHY SMITH should be included in exotics
R4 ISPHAN If he is rolled I’m out of everything – A good three-year-old that has proven Sand form – My Pa/Bipot banker
R5 GO DUTCH worth a strong place bet – might well win from that draw
R6 SARASOTA worth a E/w and outsider is Weekend Special
R7 KILLUA CASTLE is my selection for the Emerald Cup if that’s his mission but I will not ignore today especially with the blinker strike.
R8 MONEY GRUBBER to be included in quartets – might just enjoy Sand
R9 LADY JULIA is my outside placer of the day – Sand Lark and the Jockey has his best luck with fillies at this course
R10 JUDGEANDJURY – I’d include in quartets
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