The Insidious Impact Of Inflation On Punting

I have been following the spirited debate on the thread "Michael Varney - In No rush It Seems".

I am reminded how difficult it is proving to resuscitate this sport and how many reasons there are for the plight in which it finds itself.

Yet I seldom see any direct reference to the devastating impact that inflation has had over many years when measured against turnovers that are, at best, static.

In many parts of the world the 'McDonald's Burger' method is used when comparing the real purchasing power of respective currencies in a variety of countries. (ie How much does a basic burger cost in your country vs mine - it's a remarkably effective measuring tool!)

For the sake of this exercise I am going to use a different asset; one that better illustrates the aspirational nature of punting. Furthermore I am going to assume two reasons that punters would advance for betting - a.) A desire to turn steady profits or b.) A dream of experiencing a life changing win. I will studiously avoid what should be 'c' - Having some fun whilst restricting losses to as small a figure as possible!

My 'Racing McDonalds' is an S Class Mercedes Benz which, when I came into racing in 1973, had just reached the R10,000 mark. Today it starts at around R1,6 million for the comparative model. I remember this only because it was the kind of asset that one would aspire to buy if you won a big Jackpot; at that time the only exotic likely to produce a payout able to fund such a purchase.

So the problem confronting the average punter today is simple; If you wish to 'win big' punting you have only two options;

You wager a very large sum of money 'on the nose' (assuming you can even 'get on') or you structure an exotic. The latter could take any number of forms from doubles through to Soccer 13s.

This is in stark contract to 1973 when a well thought out bet on an exacta (known as the quinella back then) could quite easily have netted you R2,000 without requiring an 'Act Of God' result - enough to fund a brand new VW Beetle the following Monday!

Given the above one can well see where the increasingly difficult exotics have come from - basically bets which offer very slight chances to the punter of actually landing them but for outlays they can still afford.

One of the problems with this trend is that punters then tend to consciously approach the sport as a lottery - some even just using random numbering for habitual plays. Sadly this dilutes one of the great attractions of the activity - the opportunity to evaluate form and speculate accordingly. To say nothing of the negative contribution made by inexplicable and indefensible results off the back of information malfunctions.

Lastly - simple risk assessment when married to basic arithmetic will quickly propel you straight into the arms of sports betting; particularly when combined with better information dissemination & the reality that 9/10 on a 'horse' (team) where only a loss or draw can beat you seems far more attractive than 9/10 on a first timer with 10 opponents which decides that today is not the day after all and stands flat footed in the stalls!

Now sprinkle 'inflation' onto all of that and you will quickly discover that your hard earned winnings buy precious little and are diminishing with each passing year. Suddenly the risks just don't seem worth the rewards whilst, at that very moment, you fall victim to a result or series of results which appear difficult to justify.

yet again very good

Great post Garrick !
Highlights a few things for me.
Firstly, how betting power has gone backwards. I saw the big boys put R30k on a horse in those days (3 x Mercs. ..)
Secondly, finding winners is so hard nowadays. As much as the Punters want their roughies, they vitally need their bankers / form horses/fancies, to work around.

Cheers Garrick always food for thought.

Excellent analysis Garrick

All the more reason for racing to reach out to a new customer base with a range of completely new products.

Multi-leg offerings are the only one's that will generate pools and payouts that are attractive enough to illicit a new interest among non-players, but not in the current format where it does resemble a lottery as so nicely pointed out.

Excellent point Garrick, the inflation rate has affected everyone equally across the board - no wait, those on the bottom rank perhaps a little harsher.

Lack of investment, no jobs, no leisure Rand at the lowest level has all but wiped out the bottom end R2 punter. This and one or two other reasons I won't debate here, now. Lower middle class, middle class and upper middle class still have leisure Rand, this is evident in abundance in any mall on a Saturday morning (coffee shops are packed), or on Friday evenings downtown (cocktail bars, small restaurants, bistro's), the casino, movie houses, etc.

Personally I suspect, for racing at the upper levels, that the punter has migrated, not disappeared. Despite the inflation issue. Migrated to sports betting or another form of entertainment. The question is, is it because other options are available (racing's not the only show in town anymore, and neither is the casino), or because racing is truly old hat and, IS there really better VALUE to be found in sports betting?

Don a major reason for the migration as you put it is the perception that the controlling body, the Jockey Club, does not regulate the sport as it should. Go and play a poker tournament, or go to a casino. The rules are black and white. This can not be said of racing.

Top class post in my opinion. I have punted horse for longer than most and once won enough
money to buy a car for R2800 Chrysler which I believe would now cost about R450K
Also won a jackpot of R4700 about a month later My layout for the jackpot R32
One must remember a line cost 50c and no percentages

Try to do it today Get a bookie to lay you 450000 at 20/1 my bet was 4000/200 and laid to me by Shorty Vermeulen in CT The claim on the crossbar was R1000 but the bookmakers on course held big money and had big balls Gus Wise, Pezaro and many others

Elmer having worked on course for bookies that took bets,i can tell you they loved the thrill.AND to some it was a case of take as much as you can,close your eyes and hope fr the same

laying bets was a drug to them