Is This What MR should really achieve?

The 4th race at Greyville t'morrow night highlights what is, in my opinion ,the worst of the present way our model works(or doesn't)
In a field of 13 runners,10 are racing between 10 and 25 lbs lower than the highest rating they have achieved.
The remaining 3 horses are two 3yr olds and a lightly raced 4 yr old just out the maidens.
The fact is that those three have to run the best races of their lives,so far,to run above their ratings and are likely to be deprived a second win by any one of 10 horses that merely need to "partially" bounce back.
Makes you wonder,when it comes to handicappers, whether it is better to be buying young horses on the way up, or old horses on the way down!

I realise that this is an extreme example but by no means rare, particularly in PE and midweek Vaal meetings.
Last week I pointed out a similar scenario in PE (7th race at Fairview 21/11/14) in a post where I suggested going wide in exotics -the first 3 places were taken by formless horses "bouncing back" and the places paid R7.40,R3,60 and R6.40 and threw out over 98% of live PA tickets.
The reason those centres have so many carryovers is, that trying to predict sudden form returns that are helped by the system,is a lottery!

This is very usefulinfo, coz 2bh, most of us dont even pick dis up..
I remember last week u pointed this out amd i wemt field in da pa, but i wasout earlier onneway.lol

from a punting perspective its a chance to make money.Wouldnt want to have it anyway else personally
off the subject as normal but ,,,
Some do show signs from their last run but are normally disguised by class ,surface or distance and the form needs to be carefully dissected and one needs to know what to look for
Sometimes the condition of the form of the other runners in the race points to a better run as was the case in the 6th yesterday imo

ps
Yesterday my three best place prospects were these sorts and fortunately for some they all ran second
Victory Cruise
Mythical Palace
Ittsgotobeme
Im not convinced that i come to these by fluke but i do not use merit ratings as a tool

I think fractional timing will go a long way in helping us read their form