When outsiders win...

colors wrote: the trainer must know when the horse is better then rated/weighted

Morning Colours, i think that is there for most to see, the horse's wellbeing is the unknown factor to the betting public, hence the springers in the market, so i must agree with Englander regards the transparency from stables, because sometimes the complete opposite occurrs when a horse drifts however still arrives. The stable might not be a punting stable however could banker their horse in an exotic and despite a drift, it wins. The trainers that do pass comment are being honest, maybe the race is not run as they perceived it would and their fancy gets rolled.

Dave Scott wrote: We had a horse is a 5 horse race with a top jock and asked him to give it an easy race as a first timer he finished 3rd and we asked him if he had used whip and tried could he have beaten the 2 horses if front?
He replied " yes no problem but not sure about the 2 behind"

Brilliant comment.

my naivety only extends to outside of racing OTA and like you can attest to many years in the game.However it is only logical for the trainer to know

bayern wrote:

colors wrote: the trainer must know when the horse is better then rated/weighted

Morning Colours, i think that is there for most to see, the horse's wellbeing is the unknown factor to the betting public, hence the springers in the market, so i must agree with Englander regards the transparency from stables, because sometimes the complete opposite occurrs when a horse drifts however still arrives. The stable might not be a punting stable however could banker their horse in an exotic and despite a drift, it wins. The trainers that do pass comment are being honest, maybe the race is not run as they perceived it would and their fancy gets rolled.

Morning Bayern,there is no onus on the trainer to be anything.His job is to train horses for the owner period Anything further is complicated
When i said he knows when his is better rated i meant in physicality not on paper as one who reads MR would

Im actually surprised by some of the comments
one way
if he timed his doing a stretch at 15 sec back in 2012 when his MR was 102 and through injury/illness/etc has now come down to a 78 and after whatever, he is now clocking that time regularly in work ??? If he gets beaten well then thats just racing

Probably best to remember that punting is a game of skill enhanced by chance.

There are so many things that can go wrong before or during the race that can have a material impact on the outcome.

Also it is easier to make a good horse lose than a bad one win.

Love the game though and wouldn't change these curve balls for all the world. We have all had long shots arriving at some point, what a thrill.

Even when a horse is not backed openly the connections are having a go on a wing and a prayer.....case in point Scottsville Sunday.....Run Rhino Run a 1st timer arrives in race 9 and appears friendless in the betting.....I liked the ped....and the owner is known to buy some classy types.....had it in my play and took tote doubles into the 10th with 3 runners.....one of my selections was with the fav ....but the double paying the least some R150 and change was with a horse from the same owner and it was nibbled at...... but did not need to be pressed as the connections obviously had many tote doubles to come..... :ohmy:

imo part of the discussion should be around how betting is structured and the like.A good starting point would be yesterdays big '' failure" Claverhouse.If you felt his form of his runs leading up to him being favourite were indeed true then the odds offered were extremely generous.The same will obviously apply on finding the true form!!!

imo he should have been around 4/1

My first winner as an owner was Bud Weiser Boy , Mr Moore knows a thing about horses

But his pre race comments were something like

Needs the run and further

Pished in at 33/1

colors wrote: imo he should have been around 4/1

Oh dear Coolors,I was happy with 11/8 as it went of 8/10
If Claverhouse had hacked up AGAIN,I bet you would have thought he should be 1/4.
That's the most idiotic thing to say because a shortie got beat.

i think you having your bouts again Dave but i understand and its ok by me