When outsiders win...

Is it because only a "select few" knew of the horses condition/ability

or

the horse just decided to "surprise' everyone and put his best foot forward


Curious to know what others think.....what percentage of the time does a horse "surprise" his trainer/jockey etc and actually win a race completely unexpectedly.

Why is there so little transparency SL? Why are there only a dozen or so trainers who will give pre-race comments (except to the media who give it to the public a few minutes before the off)? Why are the pre-race comments on Pettigrew's new website for only those who have the password (I don't know the answer)?

How often do the likes of Joey Ramsden or Mike Bass have "shock" winners?

For the most part my guess would be the betting board
SA Punters love just the top two
Trainers know - its very simple for them

Hey, nobody knows when outsiders win

have a small bet on Pula R5

Why you say that Mac

I love the comments "trainers know". Its probably the biggest fallacy in racing. Ask Craig and Louis, with all the best intentions they guide us about the chances of their runners but they definitely dont "know" they will win. I have on many occasions heard that trainer a,b,c,d,e and f are confident of winning in the same race. They are all being honest. Horses are flesh and blood not machines. If it was that simple we would never have roughies winning.

I agree with Mac horses can make fools of us all and jockeys and trainers are possibly the worst tipsters and the trainers book on excuses is bigger than the encyclopedia.
lol

i said they know not that they know and will tell

the trainer must know when the horse is better then rated/weighted

Colors my friend I have been betting horses for a long time. I have seen and experienced many things that have dumbfounded me when it comes to trainers. One thing that shocked me many years back was having a friend who had a horse with a prominent local trainer. This trainer is still around and is consistently in the top 20 nationally. He is no mug. Well as the story goes my friend had a 25% share in a horse that had been bought at a sale and there was great excitement about the first run. That excitement was tempered somewhat when the trainer, who had three horses in the race, informed my friend that the stable companion was a good thing and advised him to have a good bet. We all duly backed the companion and were left stunned when that ran unplaced and you guessed it, the friends horse won at any price. I know the trainer backed the good thing because my friend was asked to get on for him! Advice from jockeys and trainers will normally be the fast track to the poor house.

We had a horse is a 5 horse race with a top jock and asked him to give it an easy race as a first timer he finished 3rd and we asked him if he had used whip and tried could he have beaten the 2 horses if front?
He replied " yes no problem but not sure about the 2 behind"