Chris van Buuren wrote: I think Spring Steel will win today and I like La Manga E/W
Agree Chris, Spring Steel has run two cracking races. Back to the Vaal straight where, on debut, he ran a cracking second behind Kostya Zu. In both races the form has been franked and could have found the 1400m in soft going a bit far last time out. If the Tarry horse isn't great then he should win easily.
Some competitive races made more difficult by the possible draw advantage to the outside. A number of my selections, or at least mentioned, have drawn low (1 or 2 in some cases) and thus could be in "trouble"
R1 Newcomer Cataluga is the money horse and has to be respected on that (and the other first timer has also received outsider support) but interesting to me, or simply something I don't know, that Lerena had retained the ride on Strictlycumdancin, who for me seems to have the best form on show, so I'll stick with her despite a potentially poor draw.
R2 Was opposing Beach In A Bottle so the scratching and subsequent price reductions something of a blow. Spring Steel now looks the obvious one and I suppose the most likely winner but on a line through Le Dominion there is little to choose between her and Heywot. Of the two, given the prices, I would probably play a small e/w on the latter. After 2 reasonable efforts over 1400, Marcobomba drops in trip and could be a factor but will need to break better. Give Me A Reason has a sniff but Tarry apparently advised Julie A that Shimmering Brook would definitely need the run. My play though will be a small e/w on Winter Rebel who was disappointing lto with possible excuses but, on debut, finished 1.75l ahead of Heywot, albeit in a WR race, and if reproducing that run, with natural improvement, must come here with something of a chance.
R3 A few here with chances, Kapitan the most likely for me. I expect Barbel Run to be not to be too far off but, I think the "old" boy Abbottsbury has shock possibilities here, takes a big drop in class and has shown possible signs of something of a return to form in recent runs, is a big price for me given this field and he will be the idiot's small e/w play for the day. Cohiba is unlikely for me but can never be discounted at the Vaal though will of course need to get away ok.
R4 Difficult to oppose Off The Mark but Sea Fan could make it a race if fit and well. Cascadia unlikely imo to overturn the form with OTM. The one at a double figure price I think worth including is Pretty Special. Course form here is much better than elsewhere and might improve a little again with the blinkers removed. On collateral lines has a few lengths to find on the fav but I will do a small e/w and include in trifecta/quartets. Will tick the 4th (and maybe 3rd lol) place box for quartets with Buddy's Fakcon, Miesque's Storm and Careless Whisper.
R5 Gambol my strongest fancy of the day. Captain Aldo for the exacta and Kapellmeister hopefully to add value to the trifecta. Fire Tree the ? horse.
R6 Think I may as well have just used a pin! With a real lack of conviction... Break Of Dawn x Olive Leaf x Dashing Scarlet. I will have a very small investment on Divano if only because a failure to find a clear run soon enough lto cost me a princely sum at big odds.
R7 I'm working from memory here and it is especially cloudy on this one! Plenty have a chance but I preferred Rodeo Dream from Secret Magok. Sorry that I can't remember exactly why but, one that imo needs closer inspection is Wat's Up Sarge, I was very tempted to make it my top selection and will include in everything. Knock Knock nibbled and though I haven't, if you can look past the c form, then London Dipper might also be worth R1.
R8 If you wanted to then you could probably make something of a case for all of them. I ended up thinking the best value might be with Seattle Fairy despite the 2 box and that will be my e/w play. Seattle Trade could go close and Azaniah might run better than the price suggests despite a potentially bad draw (1). I have had a small nibble on him and Arctic Route. Would be no surprise to me back on this c if Apple Pie overturned some recent form and I will be doing a stable e/w double with WUS from the 7th. Theose mentioned could be the main players or they could all be out of the quartet lol
R9 Pretty open looking maiden to finish, my money is with Quid Rides and think the seemingly very inconsistent Icy Avalanche and Arabian World could be dangers.
Be(s)t of luck to all
Last edit: 10 years 3 months ago by Englander.
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Race 4. Interesting runners in 8. Off the mark and 12. Silent treatment. They are both out of jet master, and their dams are full sisters out of sportsworld. These sisters-in-blood are also drawn next to each other. Off the mark is the obvious choice, but it is going to be fun to see. Sea fan to make it a jet master trifecta.
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