Grand national - how to pic the winner

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How to pick a winner at the Grand National
07 Apr 2015 11:49 am
How to pick a winner at the Grand National
This bookmaker lends plenty of colour to the Aintree betting ring
On the morning of the big race, many people will be searching in a mild state of desperation, through unfamiliar racecards and newspaper columns, to try to unearth which horse will win the world's most famous steeplechase.

You might feel you're better off consulting the local psychic or seeing what's trending on Twitter. However, we thought you might want a little more help to pick a winner.

1 - Look at the horse's age
It's unusual for one who is eight years or younger to win; it's also rare for a horse who is 12 or older to finish this four-and-a-half mile marathon first. Your best bet is to focus on the ones aged between nine and 11. Only twice in the last 19 Grand Nationals has something outside that bracket won.

2 - Don't worry about the weight
The official handicapper works hard to make sure that every horse has an equal chance. There used to be a view that horses on a light weight were favoured, but in four of the last six races the winner has carried 11 stone or more.

3 - Check the form
Look at a horse's previous results in the numbers next to each one's name, for example: 130F-B02. The Grand National fences are very hard to negotiate, so try to avoid horses whose form contains the letters F for "fell" or U for "unseated rider" as you want the most reliable jumpers.

4 - Aim for experience
Every single one of the last 24 winners had run in at least 10 chases before taking on the Grand National. Most years, punters seem happy to gamble on horses that simply haven't got enough miles on the clock when it comes to facing the bigger obstacles.

5 - Don't let big odds put you off!
We had a 66-1 winner two years ago, a 33-1 shot the year before and a 100-1 champion in 2009. Horses from the well-known stables, and those ridden by the famous jockeys, tend to shorten quite dramatically. And that leaves other viable contenders at big odds against. It's not cheap to enter a horse in the Grand National, and if the handicapper is doing his job correctly they all stand an equal chance.

6 - Don't back one that's too fresh
The benefit of a recent run also appears to be important. All of the last 24 winners had had their last prep run for the Grand National within 55 days of the big race.

Happy punting... though if you really want to back a horse because you like the colours it's carrying or the name reminds you of the place where you were married - then who would we be to stop you?

And the horse who best ticks those boxes is......

Might actually have a look into it, every person in England seems to be laying money on AP McCoy with it being his last grand national. Looks to be shortening to the lowest price in Grand national history

Mac wrote: And the horse who best ticks those boxes is......

LORD WINDERMERE 40/1
ROCKY CREEK 10/1
FIRST LIEUTENANT 28/1

3 horses tick all the boxes (didn't count long odds as a box).

Rocky Creek has place in 9 out of his 11 chases. 5th last year as an 8 year old must have a shot, lightly raced but had it's prep run which it won carrying a big weight. Also had an op in the rest and the good comeback run means it could well do the trick. 5min of having a look and it's the missing link's Grand National e/w tip :lol:

My heart ruling brain but I have punted AP at 7/1 for anther fairytale

Dave Scott wrote: My heart ruling brain but I have punted AP at 7/1 for anther fairytale

Bookies stand to lose around 30 million quid already if he comes home, they will shoot the horse down if they have to :lol: I do hope he does win though, would be an absolute pleasure to watch but he's only won 1 out of 15 or something so not holding my breath.

ROCKY CREEK it shall be

The missing link wrote:

Dave Scott wrote: My heart ruling brain but I have punted AP at 7/1 for anther fairytale

Bookies stand to lose around 30 million quid already if he comes home, they will shoot the horse down if they have to :lol: I do hope he does win though, would be an absolute pleasure to watch but he's only won 1 out of 15 or something so not holding my breath.

based on that he won't win. Lol.

Balthazar King runner up last year but that was after a hard race at Cheltenham where he won his second cross country chase and it was a real all out effort. This year they have given him a rest from Cheltenham. The fact he has an F in his form does not worry me too much he has taken on Cheltenham over the longer distance with no falls and has done Aintree.

I think if he win this one he retires so giving the horse a go this year.

tonyavanti wrote: Balthazar King runner up last year but that was after a hard race at Cheltenham where he won his second cross country chase and it was a real all out effort. This year they have given him a rest from Cheltenham. The fact he has an F in his form does not worry me too much he has taken on Cheltenham over the longer distance with no falls and has done Aintree.

I think if he win this one he retires so giving the horse a go this year.

Agree that Balthazar King stands out.Stays all day and jumps well.
As you say missed Cheltenham and waiting for National.Ladbrokes quoting only 9/1

My 50 bucks eway is on portrait king at 66-1 and 16-1 place top 5.

Rocky Creek for me too.