SirPuntalot wrote: Anyone Fancy Masterly?
Enjoying the surface?coz form is terrible prior to the last run.
King of the castle 2 much weight to shoulder.
watch a replay of his last run, he was motoring home. massive runner provided he loads without too much hassle. he will win or get beat at the gates
LITTLE ONE looks a blinder, finally cracks a descent draw! and over the shorter 1000m... No 4.00 kg claim today but YENI rides and could spare some gas from that draw.
Winning_Post wrote: LITTLE ONE looks a blinder, finally cracks a descent draw! and over the shorter 1000m... No 4.00 kg claim today but YENI rides and could spare some gas from that draw.
I'm on at about 6/1 WP (with BF) but with little confidence, one 2nd in 13 d attempts, wouldn't have touched at 3s but not gone the d for a while so may all be different now...
First three definitely taking chances and no big like throughout the card but a few I'll nibble at big prices...
R1 More in hope than belief, at the anticipated prices, I'll chance an e/w on Somethingdangerous whose penultimate effort over 1600 when drawn well (3 here) and considering a reported saddle slip gives hope that over the extra 300 she could be competitive in not the strongest looking field. A risky but probably value small e/w.
R2 Blinkers removed, Lerena up, 3 runs back closely matched with Ganicus and JP's Prince (who has a reversal in draw fortunes), stable "creating" miracles... Big Thaw e/w.
R3 Draco finished finished 1.5l ahead of American Slang over 1300 lto despite having much the worse of the draws and on that should hold the form though possible it can be overturned. Two possible improvers are The Big Freeze, who was returning from a 16 week break when making his PE debut lto, and Confidential Agent, with the blinkers removed, but the latter has the widest draw to overcome, both make their Poly debut. The interesting "possible" for me though is Whinking Casanova. He made a decent debut but for reasons unknown his form went downhill thereafter. He has had a 28 week break though and if that has cleared any issues and he bounces back to the form of that debut, when he had Draco, on 4th career run, 2.85l behind then he could win with something to spare. Clearly risky but with the stable continuing to turn much of what they touch to gold lately, I'll take a small e/w
R4 Pure Spice has a decent chance, fair enough local debut with a couple of winners already coming out of it and some respectable efforts on the poly in KZN. Price a bit skinny though and so I would rather chance an e/w on Weasel (5s at time of writing) who was finishing strongly lto, albeit in a weak field, and is highly likely to appreciate the step up in d. On some of her poly efforts, Joy Of Hope might not be too far off but equally could be, especially if starting badly again. Two at huge prices I wouldn't leave out are firstly, the 50/1 shot Penelope Crush. Only 2 of her last 9 outings have been on the poly and both those were over 1600 and she was reported "short" in both those runs. Despite that, in the first of those, the form looks fairly strong, 4 of the 5 that beat her that day have won since with 4 golds, 2 silver, 2 bronze from the collective 12 runs of those 5 since. You need to go right back to the start of her career to find her previous poly runs, two reasonable efforts over the minimum before a silver over this d. Her most recent runs on the turf have been "wanting" but she took a 16 week break before her last run and if that has brought her on then she could shock here with 4kgs off and an ok draw of 6. At half a century it certainly shouldn't cause huge damage. The second is 100/1 shot, Party Favour. Less likely imo, especially from the 13 box and recent runs could definitely indicate a big drop in form but I am not entirely convinced of that. If "ignoring" them then only 5 runs back was a 3.35l 5th over c/d with both 3rd and 4th winning nto and her most recent effort prior to that over c/d, she also ran 5th (with a few of these behind) and 2nd won nto, 3rd was 3rd then 1st and 4th won nto. At three figures, despite the draw, worth a rand.
R5 Masterly is too short in the market for my liking with, for me, questions still to answer. Would rather chance Deepo going in again and following that form line (but at the revised prices will probably stay out).
R6 A few in with a shout here but I've written too much already so I'll keep it relatively short and just say that with decent form of late, over 1000, with the 1 box, I think Fort Ozark has a very decent chance and is my selection. Assuming the run is not needed, then Mainstream the most likely danger imo. The R1 choice is Bermuda Winter who has had two poor runs and that could continue but, if only a glitch and he returns to the form he showed prior to the last two, then, from the 2 box. that would make the 50/1 on offer very generous imo.
R7 Open. Complicated somewhat by a number who usually campaign over 2-300 more. I'll chance the Greeff pair, Netsuke from Credibility with Vivarani making up the trifecta. Little One can't be ignored and has not gone this d for a while but one silver in 13 d attempts does not fill me with confidence. Thrill Factor and Range Lights will both have R1 each way riding on them.
R8 The reserve Manchurrian Tiger has been in good form recently despite losing ground at the start. He gets the 1 box here but that advantage is likely to be negated by being slow from the gate and against some of these, it might leave him too much to do. If he gets away then potentially a big runner but risky for me and at 4/1 not one I would chance. Jockey bookings imply the Paddock stable elect is National Road but I have concerns about the d and would prefer to take my chances with an e/w on the stablemate, Cinderfella. Not the best recent form but most of those have been with blinkers on and they are off here. Before the recent "poor" form, he, like a couple of others, had been competing against much stronger and with the blinkers off and from one of his better draws of late, there is a chance, and it is only a chance, he might recapture form and be competitive here. At 25/1 he is worth chancing imo. Maori Lodge will be a threat if fully fit but he may just need another run and has not drawn well. Same can be said for Grand Lodge who, though returning from a 10 week break, ran well last time he returned from a similar break and again must have possibilities from the Bremner yard. Others with chances but they are the main players for me.
Winning_Post wrote: LITTLE ONE looks a blinder, finally cracks a descent draw! and over the shorter 1000m... No 4.00 kg claim today but YENI rides and could spare some gas from that draw.
I'm on at about 6/1 WP (with BF) but with little confidence, one 2nd in 13 d attempts, wouldn't have touched at 3s but not gone the d for a while so may all be different now...
Very competitive race IMO Englander and I share your sentiments in terms of price, My logic was based primarily around the fact that she's a known front runner and over her last few starts she's been pipped the last 20m or so, on each occasion she was drawn wide or widest of all. The drop in trip appeals to me and the fact that she's now drawn four is a major plus, no doubt she will go the clappers up front and looking at her previous runs I dunno if they will have time to catch her. For me a banker in everything BUT I could be way off the mark...
Topic Author
