very impressed to see in the middle of the so called off cape season and they have 3 listed and 2 group 3 races on a card with a further 2 conditions races....
I really hate it when races look so simple as it invariably throws up funny results but in the two 2 year old features I fancy both Sublime Lady and McDuff very strongly, in fact I make Sublime Lady my best of the weekend!
Cape Town had heavy rain during the week. Sunny the past couple of days, but the going will be soft.
Race 1: Nyangan and Enlightenment good debuts, and should show further improvement. sails Set good debut but did not seem to like the softer going last time when supported. Sun at Midnight lost a few lengths at the start on debut and was green - she has come on from that run. She will improve further when she goes around the turn, but I expect her to be in the money today. Quite a few well bred unraced runners, so caution advised.
Selection: 1. Nyangan 2. Sun at Midnight 3. Enlightenment
Race 2: Hot Affair is a different division, but has had problems. Perpetua is next best at the weights on best form but very disappointing run last time. Ntombe first run in CT was below her Gauteng form, but at best is a threat here. Pure Power and Promicing Polly are the form horses, but have a tough task at the weights.
Selection: 1. Hot Affair 2. Ntombe 3. Pure Power 4. Perpetua
Race 3: Very competitive field. Anglet looks very decent but has to give 2kg to a host of smart fillies. Sublime Lady was an unlucky loser last time in strong company and gets the vote. Only Harlem Shake or Leylani would be surprise winners - any of the rest could win with natural improvement.
Selection: 1. Sublime Lady 2. star Express 3. Nordic Wind 4. Anglet
The following user(s) said Thank You: Deeno, kristieN, TNaicker, Merchy
Race 4: We are having a lot of fun with Ernie, and he is developing into a smart horse. If we were at level weights and with a better draw, would be confident of winning this, but a tough ask at the weights and wide draw. That said, he ran on really well to win last time, and his is still improving. Hopefully he can step up despite the weight, and his gate speed should help Grant get him reasonably placed. As always, Ramsden has a very strong hand in this race. The Stone Thrower seems to be his stable elect and could follow in the footsteps of his smart half brother. Prince of Thieves set a solid pace last time and was only caught late- the extra 100m and wide draw could be his undoing. Macduff disappointed last time but has talent. Kemal Kavur has good Gauteng form. Lord Marshall was a bit unlucky when fancied last time, and has a big shout at the weights. Schachar seems held by him, but has a place chance. Ready to Attack has not overly impressed so far but on bottom weight and the step up in trip could be the surprise package.
Selection 1. Ernie 2. The Stone Thrower 3. Lord Marshall 4. Prince of Thieves
Race 5: Another competitive contest complicated by the fact that few have gone the trip. We run Ashram who is out at the weights with the top 4 or 5, but should cope with the step up in trip, and with a bit of luck could sneak some black type here. Elusive Stars looked a potential star as a juvenile and it is good to see her fulfilling her potential lately after a few disappointing runs. She should relish the trip and give Elusive Fort another stakes winner. Moon song Magic, Crystal Cavern and Cat and the Moon all have claims, while Lady Ming and Harvard Crimson might both improve over this trip.
Selection :1. Elusive Stars 2. Moonsong Magic 3. Ashram 4. crystal Cavern
The following user(s) said Thank You: Deeno, kristieN, Merchy
Race 6: Lanner Falcon is the class in this race, but the mile in soft going may be tough for her if the pace is on. The fact that there does not appear to be much early pace in the lineup could play into her hands. We run Omaticaya and she has been disappointing this season after some creditable performances at the highest level last season. At her best she could surprise here. She seemed to need the run last time and wasn't striding out freely. Her work has been good, but Greg Cheyne has chosen to ride Sea Cat instead. She won two nice races in PE and is useful. Jet Supreme looks the main danger to Lanner Falcon after two smart sprints she should be spot on for this. AlascanMaiden is another that is running below her earlier form and could upset. Petty Officer is consistent and still improving, but has a tough task at these weights.
Selection: 1. Lanner Falcon 2. Jet Supreme 3. Omaticaya 4. Sea Cat
Race7: question marks about staying ability complicate this race especially in testing going. Masters eye and My World have done the trip. There was little between Royal Dreamer and Liquid Mercury in the Classic, and Night in Seattle and Seize the Throne have good form. I am going with the proven stayers but will include all of the top 6 in exotics in case they do stay.
Selection: 1. My World 2. Masters Eye 3. Liquid Mercury 4. Seize the Throne
The following user(s) said Thank You: Deeno, kristieN
Race 8: Asstar looks the right one here - he is on form and is well in at the weights. Castlethorp won well last time, but is not reliable these days. Should be too short for Abercrombie and Readytogorightnow but class horses running fresh always have the potential to upset. Mister Matchet goes for 5 in a row, and does not have to improve too much to beat Asstar again despite the weight turnaround. Villa del Lago and Chestnut Dancer have place chances.
Selection: 1. Asstar 2. Mister Matchet 3. Castlethorp 4. Abercrombie
The following user(s) said Thank You: Deeno, kristieN
ERNIE will love the extra 100m , out stayed them the last time over 1400m , likes the going can only get better second run round the bend.. Weight turnaround? pfft lump on
Lots of if's and but's - and thanks to PeterD for the detailed write-up - was looking for something to take doubles with into the July - and settled on Promicing Polly - seemingly out at the weights - but ran to a 94 imo last time out - really runs well for Cormack - and with question marks about the others (Pure Power really out a the weights and prefers 1200 imo - Hot Affair, who knows?)
