We know from previous debates that the principle of MR handicapping is divided and emotive.
But is it not a very important aspect that may well be vital to the marketing of punting on horse racing(as opposed to sports betting or Poker)
A careful look at the handicapping guidelines, as published by the NHA, refers entirely (and only) to revealed ability.
A well worn expression used for years and by knowledgable racing people is "form is temporary ,class(or ability) is permanent"
If that is true, why are so many horses running off ratings so far below their revealed ability.
There is no mention ,in the guidelines ,of allowances for lack of fitness,loss of form or soundness problems..........returning a horse to reproduce its ability is surely the role of "conditioning"!
Reducing ratings leaves the whole system open to manipulation,and many of the carried over exotics are due to horses suddenly bouncing back to their ability, having being given as much as 30llb "fitness" or "lack of form" allowances!
There are plenty of examples as most handicap races include many horses (often the majority) where form is irrelevant ..............what will bounce back is the key!
Lets use the 5th race tomorrow as an example:
No of runners: 11
No of runners running off ratings below revealed ability : 10
9 of the runners are running off ratings reflecting 5 or more lengths off their revealed ability
5 of those are running off ratings that are more than 12 lengths off their revealed ability
Just to show how ludicrous the situation is
a)FORMAL REQUEST is a 3yr old whose ability has been assessed to have reduced by 5.5 lengths in the last 2 months
b)LISTEN and LEARN is a 3yr old whose ability has been assessed to have reduced by 7.5 lengths in the last 5 months
c)LONGSTRIDE is a 3yr old whose ability has been assessed to have reduced by 5 lengths in the last 4 months
How do you explain the logic to any person being introduced to the game...........tis maybe why they have to market racing as a place for parties and hat competitions!
This situation is not unique and applies often to races with fields of 16,and exotic punters need to play almost the entire fields in handicap races, or guess!!!
Is it any wonder that racing has done little to dispel the perception that only those in the know have a chance as how would the average punter assess which horse might be ready to "bounce back"....bounce backs are seldom gradual.
Is it time to decide whether MR is a measure of ability or just a random "for the time being" number?
Last edit: 9 years 10 months ago by rob faux.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Topic Author
