KENILWORTH Saturday

A good colt will always beat a good filly. Have heard that many many times during my racing career. A good colt will however NEVER beat a superstar filly. Silver mountain is the confirmed superstar, IMVHO there isn't a confirmed "good" colt amongst that bunch especially since Rabada chickened out. They can start at the 1400 this filly is special and will win easing up.

Bob Brogan wrote: Looking forward to seeing Sirens Call running, prep for the Paddock Stakes ?

She had a chip removed from her fetlock in June. The recovery has gone well. She has been back in training (at Summerveld) since October. She travelled to CT a week ago. We are on track for the Paddock Stakes, but a lot will depend on how she comes through today's prep run. 1400m is too short, and she will need the run today.
The race today may be carded as a minor conditions race, but it is a Gr1 field, albeit that it's a prep run for most.
Inara must be the pick as she has had two very good wins this season, is on home turf, is probably the closest to peak fitness, and is well in at the weight conditions. Alexis must also be respected at the weights. Same Jurisdiction won the Garden Province very well, but seems a better horse a Greyville. She has to give 2kg to Inara.
Fear Not is improving, is very fit, and gets enough weight from the big guns to be competitive.

The price difference between Budapest snd Silver Mountain is too big imo

Thanks Peter and all the best

@Bayern... I hope you wrong about Heartland... it is in my doubles and trebles. I like Ready To Attack in the feature to run into the money...

Tricky card today.
Race 2: Dixie Express keeps winning, and the handicapper has been more lenient with her than usual. With 4kg claim, she could win again. Royal Chian is great ew value at 20/1 carrying a paper weight. Tumbles, Rebels Idol and Moonblanched won't be far off.
Race 3: we have Entre Nous running in a strong Maiden. She is consistent, and has an ew chance, but she has to improve a few lengths to win this. Impala Lily and Variance are the two with best form, but there are a couple of likely improvers to consider- Steel Pan Band, Oli Miranda, as well as unknown first timers.
Race 4: Twenty four Carat also bumps a big field complicated by first timers. He has come on from his last run and will prefer 1200m. EW chance. Arctic Blast and Overshadow have the form. Impressed and Saint Roch should improve plenty.

PeterD wrote: Tricky card today.
Race 2: Dixie Express keeps winning, and the handicapper has been more lenient with her than usual. With 4kg claim, she could win again. Royal Chian is great ew value at 20/1 carrying a paper weight. Tumbles, Rebels Idol and Moonblanched won't be far off.
Race 3: we have Entre Nous running in a strong Maiden. She is consistent, and has an ew chance, but she has to improve a few lengths to win this. Impala Lily and Variance are the two with best form, but there are a couple of likely improvers to consider- Steel Pan Band, Oli Miranda, as well as unknown first timers.
Race 4: Twenty four Carat also bumps a big field complicated by first timers. He has come on from his last run and will prefer 1200m. EW chance. Arctic Blast and Overshadow have the form. Impressed and Saint Roch should improve plenty.

She is rated lower as a 3 year-old that won her second start and then another 3 in a row than WORK ETHIC(86) that took 7 runs to break her Maiden!!

Race 5: Captain Chaos will prefer the straight course. Tar Heel and Forward Drive will be right there. Western Storm and Just Felicity have the ability if bouncing back to form. Shamrock Skipper looks to be on the up.
Race 6: Very competitive handicap. I like Big Cat and Chestnuts Rocket.
Race. 7: Silver Mountain my banker. Noah from Goa the best of the colts.
Race 8: very open. I like My World
Race 9: Selection : Inara/ Same Jurisdiction/ Alexis/ Siren's Call
Race 10: Tin Soldier is on the up and should win. Banner Hill good debut and could fight it out. Jeremy may improve over this trip. League of Legends is consistent.

I'm looking to beat the filly Silver Mountain today. I realize that she is good but this is my xmas p6. Decent pool, need to beat her. I am battling to find a decent enough one though.. Have to rely on a real improver which is hard given the exposed form. The trial won by hard days night created more puzzles than answers especially with them all finishing on top of each other. I fancied Rodney for that one, but horse did not really settle. Will add illuminator and Ready to Attack in .. Any suggestions welcome.

Bob Brogan wrote: The price difference between Budapest snd Silver Mountain is too big imo

I'm in the minority it seems but I think Silver Mountain is far too short and can get rolled - Budapest won a sales race giving weight to Anglet which would put him on par with Silver Mountain on paper(Anglet runs 4-5l behind Silver Mountain twice at levels so is the line I'll use) . I think he is not near the best colt around so I'd expect them to give her a go. I am battling to find any fillies top rated that have beaten colts this year - In the sales races they failed with only Crystal Glamour getting close to Lineker (was put in his place by Noah and New Predator)

@ Peter D... a breath of fresh air in an industry cloaked in secrecy.

A few that are like you but not many.

Thanks as always for the transparency (and thoughts), much appreciated.

I am not so sure that Noah from Goa is the best of the colts. Janse van Vuuren had New Predator run 0.1 lengths off him in the Dingaans and there is 20 point difference (obviously up for debate if you believe it or not) between him and Brazuca and we know how highly he regards Brazuca.

Hard Day's Night and Victorious Jay will be handy and I reckon Rodney, Illuminator or Nassa could be flying late if they get a bit of luck.

Often with these big fields in these features you need a bit of luck and Silver Mountain may need that because she can't be getting knocked around by those big colts either.

We have got Mega Secret today in the last. We took the cheek pieces off him because we thought because he likes to look around it may keep him focused but if anything he didn't like it and used so much adrenalin going into the stalls but still ran on slightly. If all goes good at the stalls expect him to be running on again on the longer run in as he showed what he is capable of on debut.