Elvis, I know you a huge Fayd'Herbe fan, but you can still make a decent profit if you Dutch the joint favourites in the first race with Elusive Silva (6/1, theoretically 4/1), and possibly Search Party in the third (13/1 theoretically 10/1).
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
Race 1. My Cherry good debut and with natural improvement will win. Secret Plan improved last time, while Baqueira also improving. Oli Miranda disappointed last time but was consistent before that. Ruby Gem and Tripinthemist also possible inclusions for quartet.
Race 2. Elusive Silva won well last time, but needs to improve further to beat Roman Silvanus and Roman Discent.
Race 3. We have Mighty Hash running. He has taken quite a long time to come to hand, but could well get a place today. Search Party should win if he stays the trip. Has the stamina on the dam side, but the price is a bit skinny for me. Avail off form last two runs but is a danger at best. Mr Piscato is improving and I would include him in pick 6. Zama improved last run and could surprise.
Race 4. Carrie Bow Cay seems to like the third box- her consistency will be rewarded one day. Aspen Fire is the value bet at 8/1. Improved last time and is bred to enjoy the 2000m. Quite a few with chances, particularly those coming out of the Nightingale form line.
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Race 5. Very tricky race. Indaba and Masked Lady are way down in the ratings this season, and if either show a glimmer of their 3yo form would win this. Elusive Wave has been consistent but has a poor draw to overcome. Gathering Flame won this last year and had good form in the Durban season. Go as wide as possible in pick 6.
Race 6. We have Princess Royal here. She is well suited to the trip and has been working very well. She is the best of the 3 yo's, but Carry on Alice will be a very hard nut to crack, and is a probable banker. Fly by Night ran well last time and on best form is good enough to win. Real Princess should earn a cheque.
Race 7. Another challenge for the exotics. Value ew bet is St Donan, but field for pick 6.
Race 8. Arctic Teon has failed twice at short odds but tops the boards again. There isn't much between him, Archie and professional maiden Exclusive Knight. Go Direct and Jeremy look the best of the younger horses. Captain Splendid and World Bank have scope for improvement.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Andycap, the fantasy
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