Big names win but star performances missing
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Big names win but star performances missing
9 years 3 months ago
Big names win but star performances missing
By Sam Walker www.racingpost.com 8:31AM 29 FEB 2016
The favourites for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Kentucky Derby, Cox Plate and Dubai World Cup were in action last week. All four won, but it would be fair to say there were no real knockout performances.
Dubai World Cup fancy California Chrome was up first in a valuable but ungraded handicap at Meydan on Thursday. All his rivals were running from out of the weights, he was sent off a 1-3 shot and won as expected.
An RPR of 121 marks this as his best performance in the last 12 months and he was so relaxed at the finish there is a chance he can get closer to that peak mark of 125, which would make him the one to beat in the richest race in the world.
However, while it was a lovely workout and jockey Victor Espinoza didn't have to seriously ask him for an effort, they went a steady gallop, his rivals were little more than smart handicappers and the form falls well short of championship level.
He could win the World Cup, but it's worth remembering he was beaten in the race by Prince Bishop last year after the pace fell apart and he has been injured since, so he remains vulnerable at a general price of 5-2.
Winx was the next ante-post favourite in action last week, taking her winning sequence to seven with a tidy success in the Chipping Norton Stakes at Randwick on Saturday.
The superlatives were flying after her length-and-a-half win over Dibayani. She was compared to Aussie champions like Sunline, Black Caviar and So You Think, although at present she still has something to find on the ratings to hit those heights.
At her best she earned an RPR of 120 for last year's Cox Plate success, where she got a dream run up the inside to beat Criterion by almost five lengths. Aside from that win, however, her figures have been much lower.
Saturday's win was worth an RPR of just 113, as the runner-up has proved pretty well exposed (and winless) in Hong Kong and Australia over the last two seasons.
Winx's prime asset is her speed in a finish which means she can get past anything you put in front of her. In this respect she's a bit like US star mare Zenyatta, who won 19 races in a row by swooping late from off the pace but rarely won by a wide margin.
As far as the Cox Plate goes, that speed, consistency and 4.4lb (2kg) sex allowance combine to make her a solid favourite. At 13-2 she makes some appeal, although you'll be waiting till October to see a return.
Kentucky Derby favourite Mohaymen was shortened across the boards after his nudged-out success in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
The three-year-old's unbeaten record stretched to five and the two-and-a-quarter length win over Zulu earned him a career best RPR of 115.
The Fountain Of Youth is traditionally one of the strongest early Classic trials, having been won by Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags in 2012 and Kentucky Derby winner Orb in 2013.
However, while Mohaymen currently ranks as one of the better US three-year-olds there isn't much between the leading colts at this stage. In fact, the leading US two-year-old of any sex in 2015 was the filly Songbird and as things stand the top males still have something to prove.
They haven't been running fast times, none of them have ratings good enough to win a Kentucky Derby and there is very little hierarchy to the form, although that could change in the Florida Derby next month if Mohaymen meets the second favourite for Kentucky, Nyquist.
At present I couldn't back either of the favourites for Churchill Downs. Quite a lot hangs on their potential meeting in the Florida Derby, but equally this year could be set up for something else from left field.
Perhaps the biggest disappointment from the quartet of big race favourites last week was Arc fancy Duramente, who won Sunday's Nakayama Kinen by a fast-diminishing neck from Grade 3 winner Ambitious.
Duramente was injured last year after winning Japan's equivalent of the Guineas and Derby, when he showed a lot of potential and a few quirks. However, on Sunday he appeared to have lost both the quirks and the potential for greatness.
To be fair it was his first run for a nine months and he got a bit hot before hand, so we should expect him to build on this RPR of 120, but he was very nearly beaten by a horse who would be 66-1 or bigger for the Arc, so you seriously have to question his current price for Longchamp.
At 12-1 he makes no appeal whatsoever. Especially considering the Japanese have been beaten in the Arc with at least three horses capable of RPRs in the 130s and this horse has never run to an RPR above 123 - and the race is still seven months away. 12-1? No thanks.
TOP OF THE CLASS: California Chrome 121 Art Sherman (US) (Dubai World Cup, Meydan, 1m2f, 25 February)
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By Sam Walker www.racingpost.com 8:31AM 29 FEB 2016
The favourites for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Kentucky Derby, Cox Plate and Dubai World Cup were in action last week. All four won, but it would be fair to say there were no real knockout performances.
Dubai World Cup fancy California Chrome was up first in a valuable but ungraded handicap at Meydan on Thursday. All his rivals were running from out of the weights, he was sent off a 1-3 shot and won as expected.
An RPR of 121 marks this as his best performance in the last 12 months and he was so relaxed at the finish there is a chance he can get closer to that peak mark of 125, which would make him the one to beat in the richest race in the world.
However, while it was a lovely workout and jockey Victor Espinoza didn't have to seriously ask him for an effort, they went a steady gallop, his rivals were little more than smart handicappers and the form falls well short of championship level.
He could win the World Cup, but it's worth remembering he was beaten in the race by Prince Bishop last year after the pace fell apart and he has been injured since, so he remains vulnerable at a general price of 5-2.
Winx was the next ante-post favourite in action last week, taking her winning sequence to seven with a tidy success in the Chipping Norton Stakes at Randwick on Saturday.
The superlatives were flying after her length-and-a-half win over Dibayani. She was compared to Aussie champions like Sunline, Black Caviar and So You Think, although at present she still has something to find on the ratings to hit those heights.
At her best she earned an RPR of 120 for last year's Cox Plate success, where she got a dream run up the inside to beat Criterion by almost five lengths. Aside from that win, however, her figures have been much lower.
Saturday's win was worth an RPR of just 113, as the runner-up has proved pretty well exposed (and winless) in Hong Kong and Australia over the last two seasons.
Winx's prime asset is her speed in a finish which means she can get past anything you put in front of her. In this respect she's a bit like US star mare Zenyatta, who won 19 races in a row by swooping late from off the pace but rarely won by a wide margin.
As far as the Cox Plate goes, that speed, consistency and 4.4lb (2kg) sex allowance combine to make her a solid favourite. At 13-2 she makes some appeal, although you'll be waiting till October to see a return.
Kentucky Derby favourite Mohaymen was shortened across the boards after his nudged-out success in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
The three-year-old's unbeaten record stretched to five and the two-and-a-quarter length win over Zulu earned him a career best RPR of 115.
The Fountain Of Youth is traditionally one of the strongest early Classic trials, having been won by Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags in 2012 and Kentucky Derby winner Orb in 2013.
However, while Mohaymen currently ranks as one of the better US three-year-olds there isn't much between the leading colts at this stage. In fact, the leading US two-year-old of any sex in 2015 was the filly Songbird and as things stand the top males still have something to prove.
They haven't been running fast times, none of them have ratings good enough to win a Kentucky Derby and there is very little hierarchy to the form, although that could change in the Florida Derby next month if Mohaymen meets the second favourite for Kentucky, Nyquist.
At present I couldn't back either of the favourites for Churchill Downs. Quite a lot hangs on their potential meeting in the Florida Derby, but equally this year could be set up for something else from left field.
Perhaps the biggest disappointment from the quartet of big race favourites last week was Arc fancy Duramente, who won Sunday's Nakayama Kinen by a fast-diminishing neck from Grade 3 winner Ambitious.
Duramente was injured last year after winning Japan's equivalent of the Guineas and Derby, when he showed a lot of potential and a few quirks. However, on Sunday he appeared to have lost both the quirks and the potential for greatness.
To be fair it was his first run for a nine months and he got a bit hot before hand, so we should expect him to build on this RPR of 120, but he was very nearly beaten by a horse who would be 66-1 or bigger for the Arc, so you seriously have to question his current price for Longchamp.
At 12-1 he makes no appeal whatsoever. Especially considering the Japanese have been beaten in the Arc with at least three horses capable of RPRs in the 130s and this horse has never run to an RPR above 123 - and the race is still seven months away. 12-1? No thanks.
TOP OF THE CLASS: California Chrome 121 Art Sherman (US) (Dubai World Cup, Meydan, 1m2f, 25 February)
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