Turffontein Sat 2 APR - EARLY THREAD

WP races are mostly run to form , it's one of the reasons why some countries that have banned gambling allow people to punt horses( it's been proven that there is skill involved )

I know it's hard to believe, I'm saying it and don't always believe it

Negroamaro to put Heaps of Fun in her place today. Marcus will know Heaps of Fun's tactics better and won't be caught flat-footed again.

Polyphonic very unlucky with the draw again. She has lots of ability. My roughie @ 25's.

The missing link wrote: H

Bob Brogan wrote:

The missing link wrote: My best bet of the day, bull valley @33/10. Beat decent company very easily in first two races, tried hard when giving 5.5kgs to noah from goah over a distance probably too long and the dimgaans was just too long a trip. Has its issues and can be quite temperamental but if fit and well it'll doddle home.

FAV been scratched will be big deduction now..

Pity was not keen on AB grrrr

30% deduction at betting world but 0% showing at betx. Can they adjust it again because I checked with a small sum of money and I can bet on BV@33/10 while it shows the scratched horse has been taken out?

So my initial bets @33/10 take a 30% deduction, I could then bet @33/10 and not get a deduction and now it's changed to a deduction and I can take 3/1. Logic? :lol:

If Wukkin' Up doesn't arrive in the first race, then I'll have a mountain to climb for the remainder of the day. The fact that they have managed to find a race where the merit rating is spot on, she doesn't have to carry more weight than is necessary and isn't conceding more weight than is necessary, it's hard seeing this one being beaten.

It looks like many of the fancied runners could arrive, however we all know what happens when the results look too obvious, therefore I've chosen to mix and match, with the odd Dutch.

Play well.

Bob Brogan wrote: WP races are mostly run to form , it's one of the reasons why some countries that have banned gambling allow people to punt horses( it's been proven that there is skill involved )

I know it's hard to believe, I'm saying it and don't always believe it

There is no skill involved IMO, its all luck, nothing can be predicted with certainty and thats why book makers and casinos exist, the only accurate prediction is that overtime after many races, the house will always win, that is unfortunayely how everything works.

R1 - WUKKIN UP
R2 - CLOTH OF CLOUD
R3 - ISCA
R4 - SEATTLE SINGER
R5 - LEGAL EAGLE
R6 - PATCH IT UP BABY
R7 - NEGROAMARO x SHES A DRAGON
R8 - BRUZUCA x ROMANY PRINCE
R9 - FORTUNE FELLA
R 10 - THRUST

Winning_Post wrote:

Bob Brogan wrote: WP races are mostly run to form , it's one of the reasons why some countries that have banned gambling allow people to punt horses( it's been proven that there is skill involved )

I know it's hard to believe, I'm saying it and don't always believe it

There is no skill involved IMO, its all luck, nothing can be predicted with certainty and thats why book makers and casinos exist, the only accurate prediction is that overtime after many races, the house will always win, that is unfortunayely how everything works.

that is true 99% of the time but there is that small percent of punters who do show profit over time. even a win rate of 52-55% is seen as quite an achievement over time. but even they go broke many times.

Winning_Post wrote:

Bob Brogan wrote: WP races are mostly run to form , it's one of the reasons why some countries that have banned gambling allow people to punt horses( it's been proven that there is skill involved )

I know it's hard to believe, I'm saying it and don't always believe it

There is no skill involved IMO, its all luck, nothing can be predicted with certainty and thats why book makers and casinos exist, the only accurate prediction is that overtime after many races, the house will always win, that is unfortunayely how everything works.

WP, that's a nonsense statement and you know it. Do you throw numbers in a hat and choose one - if that's what you do, then yes it's luck. However if you take a few things into consideration when trying to find a winner, there's got to be some skill involved. As long as you have a "system" in place, it cannot be considered luck.

phew wukkin up seems very cramped at odds on in a handicap..she was only given 4 pounds for her last win so the hcapers weren't overly impressed..would rather take a chance with London who has dropped 11 pounds in the ratings and drops into a handicap ..she also seems to prefer the outside track at tftein where she ran behind behind smart call and 4lengths to off to the mark from a poor draw in a feature..small field so pace will also be a concern

R1 WUKKIN' UP
R2 FRESH
R3 BULL VALLEY
R4 HE'S A VAR
R5 LEGAL EAGLE (W) CAPTAIN ALDO (P)
R6 ZRINSKI (W) FORTITUDE (P)
R7 NEGROAMARO (W) CHRITMAS CAROL (P)
R8 ABASHIRI (W) VAL ET AL (P)
R9 STORM WARNING
R10 THRUST

Wp , you put the work in ( skill, study) then rely on everything falling into place(luck)

There are a tiny minority of punters that win long run 3% -5%, they do this through skill (study) ... they can also be unlucky

There is some of us that win most of the time but lose enough to be losers

There is some of us who lose most of the time

we are all part of the game

Hi Guys,

I like this card.

Race 1: Favorite wont win. Paris Princess or Miss Rambo.

Race 2: Favorite wont win. Fresh or Intriguing Lady. Fresh ran against colts last time

Race 3: Open

Race 4: He's a Var will shit in. Big Danger is the filly Seattle Singer

Race 5: Captain America??? My Best Bet 33-10

Race 6: Fortitude my Value Bet 16-1

Race 7: Heaps Of Fun will win well 3-1

Race 8: Abashiri will shit in twice 8-10 take exactas with Champagne Haze

Good Racing Guys