Weights Durban July

Pirates i just thought Rabada and Marcus... well weighted with Black Arthur on Capetown runs and if LE had run Marcus couldnt have done the weights?

Lot of talk about bela bela on course yday

There was speculation a few weeks ago that Anton was going to ride DJ for the July,but the mere fact that he didnt make the trip up to ride him in the Jubilee,ends that.

I heard on TT last night from Molly( during his Newmarket preview),that DJ was going to gallop with Shadow OF a Smile at 9.00am at Turffontein this morning,at the insistance of GHawkins.

Anyone has news of the outcome?

Was DJ out injured or just rested for 5 months before the last race, could that be the reason for poor showing in its last run.

Doyen wrote: There was speculation a few weeks ago that Anton was going to ride DJ for the July,but the mere fact that he didnt make the trip up to ride him in the Jubilee,ends that.

I heard on TT last night from Molly( during his Newmarket preview),that DJ was going to gallop with Shadow OF a Smile at 9.00am at Turffontein this morning,at the insistance of GHawkins.

Anyone has news of the outcome?

I heard from a very reliable source that GH has already backed DJ at 33/1

So we all know more or less what the final field and weights are going to look like - well except for the Jooste runners - not sure what is going to happen there; I see Bela Bela is the new favorite and I do prefer her to Black Arthur - but of the 3 yr olds the value currently lies with It's My Turn and to a lessor extent Rabada - if he runs.

But I think the Tarry / Jooste / Brugman trick with Legal Eagle has given the older horses the advantage and I now think that Solid Speed is very good value at current odds (and was a great Ante Post bet at 66/1 ) and I am tempted to predict that he won't miss a place.

With all the fuss about Deo Juvente, stable mate Master Sabina is pretty much flying under the radar; may be worthwhile to remember that he did win the Summer Cup just beating DJ and also French Navy; MS will be better off at the weights now with DJ and meet FN at similar terms - seemingly went wrong in the Met and as a result of a poor comeback run he now trades at 40/1 which does seem very big in comparison with FN - especially considering that MS won the 'Consolation' 2 years ago and regular pilot Gavin Lerena is currently showing as his rider :ohmy:

So onwards to Tuesday when the Jooste / Brugman questions will be answered

Frodo wrote: So we all know more or less what the final field and weights are going to look like - well except for the Jooste runners - not sure what is going to happen there; I see Bela Bela is the new favorite and I do prefer her to Black Arthur - but of the 3 yr olds the value currently lies with It's My Turn and to a lessor extent Rabada - if he runs.

But I think the Tarry / Jooste / Brugman trick with Legal Eagle has given the older horses the advantage and I now think that Solid Speed is very good value at current odds (and was a great Ante Post bet at 66/1 ) and I am tempted to predict that he won't miss a place.

With all the fuss about Deo Juvente, stable mate Master Sabina is pretty much flying under the radar; may be worthwhile to remember that he did win the Summer Cup just beating DJ and also French Navy; MS will be better off at the weights now with DJ and meet FN at similar terms - seemingly went wrong in the Met and as a result of a poor comeback run he now trades at 40/1 which does seem very big in comparison with FN - especially considering that MS won the 'Consolation' 2 years ago and regular pilot Gavin Lerena is currently showing as his rider :ohmy:

So onwards to Tuesday when the Jooste / Brugman questions will be answered

I have to agree with Frodo on this one.
Considering the winners of the greyville 1900 normally perform well in the July.
He will in with a nice weight and hopefully a good draw.
He sees the distance and has a decent turn of foot.
I think nearly 4/1 a place at HWB is a gift.

One thing I certainly know is trophy wife making the field

So who is going to be in and who is going to miss out?

Looking at the last log, this is what my crystal ball is telling me

1 - Abashiri - looks like despite misgivings from the trainer, the owner wants a July runner - so he will run

2. French Navy - after the scratching of Legal Eagle, most likely Tarry's main hope - question is who will ride - Khumalo or Marwing

3. Rabada - looking at the betting today, it seems like the Jooste hopes will mainly be resting on St Tropez - so Rabada has to be a doubtful starter

4. Bela Bela - Delpech's preference and looks sure to run

5. It's My Turn - looks sure to run with Fourie riding

6. Master Sabina - jock already penciled in - so will most likely run

7. Black Arthur - has been touted as the Snaith's stable elect before the final weights came out - so sure to run

8. Solid Speed - definite runner

9. Negroamara - must be some doubt about her running

10. Mambo Mine - entered for other races on the day - also seems doubtful to run

11. Rocketball - jock seems confirmed - so seems likely to run

12. Samurai Blade - could be a runner - and maybe Khumalo's ride should Marwing get Fench Navy?

13. Deo Juvente - could be the Jooste backup ?

14. Mac de Lago - was always going to be a runner - weight may now be an obstacle?

15. St Tropez - looking at current betting, probably the main Jooste hope ?

16. Marinaresco- connections seems committed to run him

17. Ten Gun Salute - who knows ?

18. Olma - who knows ?

19. Trophy Wife - could be Tarry's 3rd string ?

20. Dynamic - seems it has always been the intention to qualify him - would be touch and go depending on which of those above him runs ?

21. The Conglomerate - like Dynamic, seems that it has always been the intention to get him in - also will depend a lot on whether runners like Rabada, Ten Gun Salute and Olma runs or not?

If all the 'doutfuls' come out, this leaves us with 16 or 17 runners - still room for one or two more (The Centenary, Saratoga Dancer, Punta Areans)? But if all on the list runs, it probably means that Dynamic and The Conglomerate may not even make it as 'reserves'

I still find the Jooste / Brugman tactics strange - from having a horse in the race who would have had more than half the field under sufferance, they now seem stuck with their main hope being St Tropez, who is going to be 3.5 kgs under sufferance and facing a horse like Solid Speed at 2kgs worse than when he was beaten by SS in the 1900 :ohmy:

Looking at the overall form from last year's Summer Cup through the Champions Challenge, the Daily News etc., there does not seem to be a lot between the 3 yr olds and older horses taking into accounts the weights to be carried in the July - so where does the value lie for one last Ante-Post stab?

Of the older horses, I have already pledged my allegiance to Solid Speed as being a good value bet, with perhaps Master Sabina as well - of course French Navy can't be ignored, but maybe just a touch short in the betting compared to horses like Solid Speed and even Mac de Lago.

Of the 3 year olds I find it very hard to compare the filly against the colts - my gut feel is that she may be better than the colts taking into account that she will be receiving 1 kg from them - but at present the value surely lies with the longer priced runners like It's My Turn (who beat both Black Arthur and Marinaresco in the Cape Derby), Rabada (but there must be some doubt as to whether he runs or not) and especially Rocket Ball and Samurai Blade, who both have Abashiri stone cold on the SA Derby run

The runners that in my opinion look a bit short in the betting, are Abashiri, Marinaresco, Black Arthur, French Navy and St Tropez - which means that between them they will probably make up the quartet on the day :huh:

Let just get my cloth to wipe that crystal ball some more

Does anybody know what this years theme is?

Having often been right in my Met selections and coming short with the July,surely I can be forgiven for feeling "It's My Turn" ?

Will DJ RUN IN THE JULY