R1 Interesting opener with quite a few possibilities. Storyfields and Marcelle are frequently thereabouts and Uppies Joy didn't have the clearest of passages lto. Rustic Sunrise made a decent debut and though the drop in trip is a concern, the yard won doing the same with LA Rocks recently and Monday was the Snaith/Fortune show. Villanelle had some very respectable early career form but the 26 week absence raises doubts. Southern Sunset may improve again from her silver lto when returning from a 13 week break, but I am going to chance Lady Away who, on debut, finished 2.35l behind SS. She went under the radar that day due to a strongly supported stablemate, but all three of her half-siblings showed some relatively decent form. She appeared to get held up before having to switch to the inside from about 150 out and I think there could be plenty more to come. She does have the 1 box too which might be of considerable help, but equally the concern for me is that she did appear to be a little outpaced in the early stages and if repeating she might find herself in a difficult position come the final bend... Lady Away x Southern Sunset x Villanelle x Rustic Sunrise
R2 Hoping that Var Ahead is fit and well and ready to go. Of course, the stable won't be telling us his well-being, thanks as always to the Snaith yard for their punter-friendly approach. So, have to guess and hope. The draw is another big question mark as to his chances but the yard and Fortune performed strongly earlier in the week and the form from his first couple of runs is possibly strong enough to win this imo. Oriental Tiger must have a big claim should not all go as hoped with VA. Seattle Light had some fairly useful runs before finding the winner's box and could make up the trifecta.
R3 A top quality field. A repeat of Super Seattle's debut might be enough and is my tentative selection. Vida Fella won't have to be much to win but is short in the market and her half-siblings have shown little. At their best Green Door and Golden Tongue have claims. Cheyne has chosen to ride Shady World who showed little in Gauteng, probably prefers further and has had 23 weeks off, could "surprise". My R1 e/w will be on Fall Of Dice. Lost 3l at the start on debut and seemingly chose not to compete thereafter, was later reported not striding so possible still has something to show, if she does then she will get no better opportunity than this race. Only full sibling had 2 golds, 4 silvers and 3 4ths in his first 10 runs. FODs 40/1 SP on debut does not indicate any confidence but at even bigger odds it won't hurt to take the risk.
R4 A difficult race made all the more difficult by, imo, some of the major players returning from rests. Little to choose between the Snaith runners Razed In Black and Land Of Meadows and both return from breaks, of course there is absolute silence from the stable. Of the two I prefer RIB and hard to believe they would not put Fortune up on the preferred choice but who knows. I am though going with a third horse returning from a break, Eternal Jet. A shame that for some reason there is no stable comment here either, unlike for other races, so again well-being must be "guessed". Both EJ and LOM were beaten by 3.5l by Juan Two Three in their penultimate runs (different surfaces). From those runs, EJ is now 7kgs better off with LOM. In the run behind Russian Mig on 21st March, EJ was 0.45l behind RIB and again gets a 7kg pull. EJ certainly has potential e/w value here. Captain's Reserve has run close with all three and is likely to be thereabouts. Seymour must have a chance with the weight and draw but was not so far ahead of the Spies pairing of Atso Time and Fire Dancing behind Trouble Maker, they are not so well drawn but are 5 or 6 x the price, a couple of rand will be thrown Atso Time's way. Eternal Jet x Razed In Black x Captain's Reserve
R5 I am somewhat going against the Sham's comments here (though no comment for Carole Bouquet?). In what looks a fairly competitive field, I like Lexicon and think she might be looking for this distance. Somewhat unluckily in her penultimate outing, every route Munger chose from about 300 out seemed to go wrong but when she did see daylight she finished really nicely and imo would have caught the stablemate Isabelle not too far after the line. The main dangers for me are stablemate Cup Bearer and Pirangi. With Fortune up for the Snaith's again, Wonder Worker must also be respected but on the Lexicon run referred to, I prefer the latter's chances.
R6 Like Jo Malone to turnover the fav, not sure whether I like her enough to back her though.
R7 Captain On The Run in a wide open looking race. Antagonist at a big price might be worth a nutter bet, ignore the last two and not such bad form and recent history perhaps implies she can have a bad run or two but bounces back quickly.
R8 I'll do later
As usual with PE, more hope than expectancy.
Be(s)t of luck to all
The following user(s) said Thank You: Bob Brogan, Floyd, durbs
R1 Interesting opener with quite a few possibilities. Storyfields and Marcelle are frequently thereabouts and Uppies Joy didn't have the clearest of passages lto. Rustic Sunrise made a decent debut and though the drop in trip is a concern, the yard won doing the same with LA Rocks recently and Monday was the Snaith/Fortune show. Villanelle had some very respectable early career form but the 26 week absence raises doubts. Southern Sunset may improve again from her silver lto when returning from a 13 week break, but I am going to chance Lady Away who, on debut, finished 2.35l behind SS. She went under the radar that day due to a strongly supported stablemate, but all three of her half-siblings showed some relatively decent form. She appeared to get held up before having to switch to the inside from about 150 out and I think there could be plenty more to come. She does have the 1 box too which might be of considerable help, but equally the concern for me is that she did appear to be a little outpaced in the early stages and if repeating she might find herself in a difficult position come the final bend... Lady Away x Southern Sunset x Villanelle x Rustic Sunrise
R2 Hoping that Var Ahead is fit and well and ready to go. Of course, the stable won't be telling us his well-being, thanks as always to the Snaith yard for their punter-friendly approach. So, have to guess and hope. The draw is another big question mark as to his chances but the yard and Fortune performed strongly earlier in the week and the form from his first couple of runs is possibly strong enough to win this imo. Oriental Tiger must have a big claim should not all go as hoped with VA. Seattle Light had some fairly useful runs before finding the winner's box and could make up the trifecta.
R3 A top quality field. A repeat of Super Seattle's debut might be enough and is my tentative selection. Vida Fella won't have to be much to win but is short in the market and her half-siblings have shown little. At their best Green Door and Golden Tongue have claims. Cheyne has chosen to ride Shady World who showed little in Gauteng, probably prefers further and has had 23 weeks off, could "surprise". My R1 e/w will be on Fall Of Dice. Lost 3l at the start on debut and seemingly chose not to compete thereafter, was later reported not striding so possible still has something to show, if she does then she will get no better opportunity than this race. Only full sibling had 2 golds, 4 silvers and 3 4ths in his first 10 runs. FODs 40/1 SP on debut does not indicate any confidence but at even bigger odds it won't hurt to take the risk.
R4 A difficult race made all the more difficult by, imo, some of the major players returning from rests. Little to choose between the Snaith runners Razed In Black and Land Of Meadows and both return from breaks, of course there is absolute silence from the stable. Of the two I prefer RIB and hard to believe they would not put Fortune up on the preferred choice but who knows. I am though going with a third horse returning from a break, Eternal Jet. A shame that for some reason there is no stable comment here either, unlike for other races, so again well-being must be "guessed". Both EJ and LOM were beaten by 3.5l by Juan Two Three in their penultimate runs (different surfaces). From those runs, EJ is now 7kgs better off with LOM. In the run behind Russian Mig on 21st March, EJ was 0.45l behind RIB and again gets a 7kg pull. EJ certainly has potential e/w value here. Captain's Reserve has run close with all three and is likely to be thereabouts. Seymour must have a chance with the weight and draw but was not so far ahead of the Spies pairing of Atso Time and Fire Dancing behind Trouble Maker, they are not so well drawn but are 5 or 6 x the price, a couple of rand will be thrown Atso Time's way. Eternal Jet x Razed In Black x Captain's Reserve
R5 I am somewhat going against the Sham's comments here (though no comment for Carole Bouquet?). In what looks a fairly competitive field, I like Lexicon and think she might be looking for this distance. Somewhat unluckily in her penultimate outing, every route Munger chose from about 300 out seemed to go wrong but when she did see daylight she finished really nicely and imo would have caught the stablemate Isabelle not too far after the line. The main dangers for me are stablemate Cup Bearer and Pirangi. With Fortune up for the Snaith's again, Wonder Worker must also be respected but on the Lexicon run referred to, I prefer the latter's chances.
R6 Like Jo Malone to turnover the fav, not sure whether I like her enough to back her though.
R7 Captain On The Run in a wide open looking race. Antagonist at a big price might be worth a nutter bet, ignore the last two and not such bad form and recent history perhaps implies she can have a bad run or two but bounces back quickly.
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