Turffontein Saturday 8th Oct

Frodo wrote: Ektifaa drifting alarmingly :ohmy:

Frodo wrote: Having take a short break from punting this week, I'm hoping to come back 'fresh' and not 'needing the run' - looks a much better card than the 'lucky numbers' we were dished up last week; a really catchable P6 if one can find the right bankers

R1: Bi Pot is finding support, but Sha-Boom Sha-Boom has also shortened and is looking to give the Rainbow Flag family the ideal start - for me the 7/2 available earlier on SBSB was a gift and racing experience should give her the edge on the first timer

R2: Another Woodruff inmate tops the boards; this one very short at odds-on; Tour of Duty has not exactly franked the form, so imo no value especially listening to the stable stating that their runners are coming to the races from the sand tracks - will probably end up eg on my face (again) but I'm covering in the BP with experienced runners like Timeofthevikings and Steal a March

R3: Dolphin looks something of a course specialist and both his wins have come over this trip - has been given 7 points for his last win and no 'direct' winners have come out of that race, so Ronnie Rockets who come out of a fair run Grad Plate last time (but beaten by the same Tour of Duty, will have his supporters with Striker in the irons; also in that Grad Plate was Led Zeppelin who is actually weighted to finish in front of RR today - imo at 25/1 definitely one to include in Trif and Quartets

R4: Charming Charlie definitely a candidate for a P6 banker - but also very short imo for a horse that according to the stable will be better over further; I'm backing him up in the P6 with Okavango Delta who is also improving and looking for this type of trip;

R5: On 'unofficial' ratings, Unagi has this field stone cold (ran to a conservative 104 last time when beating Samurai Blade); he may be better over 1600, but is another potential P6 banker imo - especially as his main danger Last Outlaw is being reported to possibly need the run; the rest looks much of a muchness, with the possible exception of Shukamisa, who won his maiden impressively and may prove better than rated; so it is choice between banking U, or including LO and possibly S, or go wide

R6: Good race, everybody is looking at the form of the race where Intergalactic beat a few of these 3 weeks ago, (on which Lazer Star looks hard to beat), but imo one has to look deeper than that one run; there is plenty of form suggesting that there is not too much between the likes of Lazer Star, Joan Ranger, Olma, Intergalactic and She's a Dragon, most of which is entitled to improvement after coming back from breaks last time; then we also have Bella Sonata, who has reportedly been aimed at this race for a while, Crown of Roses, who is not that far out of it on ratings and could surprise trying this trip for the first time, Hollie Point, who imo needs further improvement to feature at these weights and the real dark horse, 3 yr old Visuality, who could prove dangerous being in receipt of at least 7.5 kgs from the rest of the field - I'm loading up

R7: In contrast to the fillies' feature, the Spring Challenge looks a gift to the very talented Kangaroo Jack; he comfortably holds St Tropez (surely better further?) on a line through Moofeed; the only danger imo could be his stable companion Champagne Haze who is very talented having beaten both Rabada at level weights and New Predator (giving him 2 kgs); only question is of course how ready he is for this his first run of the season (betting suggests he is not quite ready) - I'm not taking any chances and will be including both Alexander runners

R8: Fillies and mares handicap which could throw us a curve ball; however looking at Ektifaa's penultimate run in the maidens where she finished less than half a length behind the talented Seattle Singer, for me she will take some beating here if she gets the extra 250m; the sneaker imo (and this filly REALLY owes me) is Spring Dance - has come right down to 61 from a 75 when running a good enough race in a feature behind the exported Madame Dubois (and close to Joan Ranger and She's a Dragon) - obviously her form since then has been disappointing, but at the weights today over probably her best trip from the plum draw with Hewitson up, I think she could upset the applecart.

R9: Toughest race on the card imo - many with chances and lots will depend if the apprentice can set a reasonable pace on Dynamite Jim - he does seemingly hold all the others he beat last time - but there is doubt in my mind whether young Mr Schwarz will be able to judge the pace correctly - so that leaves the door open - Talbec looks well in so would be my tentative first choice, but I would not like to be caught short if I do manage to stay alive up to here - so the more the merrier :ohmy:

Enjoy

Frodo wrote:

Frodo wrote: Having take a short break from punting this week, I'm hoping to come back 'fresh' and not 'needing the run' - looks a much better card than the 'lucky numbers' we were dished up last week; a really catchable P6 if one can find the right bankers

R1: Bi Pot is finding support, but Sha-Boom Sha-Boom has also shortened and is looking to give the Rainbow Flag family the ideal start - for me the 7/2 available earlier on SBSB was a gift and racing experience should give her the edge on the first timer

R2: Another Woodruff inmate tops the boards; this one very short at odds-on; Tour of Duty has not exactly franked the form, so imo no value especially listening to the stable stating that their runners are coming to the races from the sand tracks - will probably end up eg on my face (again) but I'm covering in the BP with experienced runners like Timeofthevikings and Steal a March

R3: Dolphin looks something of a course specialist and both his wins have come over this trip - has been given 7 points for his last win and no 'direct' winners have come out of that race, so Ronnie Rockets who come out of a fair run Grad Plate last time (but beaten by the same Tour of Duty, will have his supporters with Striker in the irons; also in that Grad Plate was Led Zeppelin who is actually weighted to finish in front of RR today - imo at 25/1 definitely one to include in Trif and Quartets

R4: Charming Charlie definitely a candidate for a P6 banker - but also very short imo for a horse that according to the stable will be better over further; I'm backing him up in the P6 with Okavango Delta who is also improving and looking for this type of trip;

R5: On 'unofficial' ratings, Unagi has this field stone cold (ran to a conservative 104 last time when beating Samurai Blade); he may be better over 1600, but is another potential P6 banker imo - especially as his main danger Last Outlaw is being reported to possibly need the run; the rest looks much of a muchness, with the possible exception of Shukamisa, who won his maiden impressively and may prove better than rated; so it is choice between banking U, or including LO and possibly S, or go wide

R6: Good race, everybody is looking at the form of the race where Intergalactic beat a few of these 3 weeks ago, (on which Lazer Star looks hard to beat), but imo one has to look deeper than that one run; there is plenty of form suggesting that there is not too much between the likes of Lazer Star, Joan Ranger, Olma, Intergalactic and She's a Dragon, most of which is entitled to improvement after coming back from breaks last time; then we also have Bella Sonata, who has reportedly been aimed at this race for a while, Crown of Roses, who is not that far out of it on ratings and could surprise trying this trip for the first time, Hollie Point, who imo needs further improvement to feature at these weights and the real dark horse, 3 yr old Visuality, who could prove dangerous being in receipt of at least 7.5 kgs from the rest of the field - I'm loading up

R7: In contrast to the fillies' feature, the Spring Challenge looks a gift to the very talented Kangaroo Jack; he comfortably holds St Tropez (surely better further?) on a line through Moofeed; the only danger imo could be his stable companion Champagne Haze who is very talented having beaten both Rabada at level weights and New Predator (giving him 2 kgs); only question is of course how ready he is for this his first run of the season (betting suggests he is not quite ready) - I'm not taking any chances and will be including both Alexander runners

R8: Fillies and mares handicap which could throw us a curve ball; however looking at Ektifaa's penultimate run in the maidens where she finished less than half a length behind the talented Seattle Singer, for me she will take some beating here if she gets the extra 250m; the sneaker imo (and this filly REALLY owes me) is Spring Dance - has come right down to 61 from a 75 when running a good enough race in a feature behind the exported Madame Dubois (and close to Joan Ranger and She's a Dragon) - obviously her form since then has been disappointing, but at the weights today over probably her best trip from the plum draw with Hewitson up, I think she could upset the applecart.

R9: Toughest race on the card imo - many with chances and lots will depend if the apprentice can set a reasonable pace on Dynamite Jim - he does seemingly hold all the others he beat last time - but there is doubt in my mind whether young Mr Schwarz will be able to judge the pace correctly - so that leaves the door open - Talbec looks well in so would be my tentative first choice, but I would not like to be caught short if I do manage to stay alive up to here - so the more the merrier :ohmy:

Enjoy

I was mostly right......but still wrong

rob faux wrote:

Frodo wrote:

Frodo wrote: Having take a short break from punting this week, I'm hoping to come back 'fresh' and not 'needing the run' - looks a much better card than the 'lucky numbers' we were dished up last week; a really catchable P6 if one can find the right bankers

R1: Bi Pot is finding support, but Sha-Boom Sha-Boom has also shortened and is looking to give the Rainbow Flag family the ideal start - for me the 7/2 available earlier on SBSB was a gift and racing experience should give her the edge on the first timer

R2: Another Woodruff inmate tops the boards; this one very short at odds-on; Tour of Duty has not exactly franked the form, so imo no value especially listening to the stable stating that their runners are coming to the races from the sand tracks - will probably end up eg on my face (again) but I'm covering in the BP with experienced runners like Timeofthevikings and Steal a March

R3: Dolphin looks something of a course specialist and both his wins have come over this trip - has been given 7 points for his last win and no 'direct' winners have come out of that race, so Ronnie Rockets who come out of a fair run Grad Plate last time (but beaten by the same Tour of Duty, will have his supporters with Striker in the irons; also in that Grad Plate was Led Zeppelin who is actually weighted to finish in front of RR today - imo at 25/1 definitely one to include in Trif and Quartets

R4: Charming Charlie definitely a candidate for a P6 banker - but also very short imo for a horse that according to the stable will be better over further; I'm backing him up in the P6 with Okavango Delta who is also improving and looking for this type of trip;

R5: On 'unofficial' ratings, Unagi has this field stone cold (ran to a conservative 104 last time when beating Samurai Blade); he may be better over 1600, but is another potential P6 banker imo - especially as his main danger Last Outlaw is being reported to possibly need the run; the rest looks much of a muchness, with the possible exception of Shukamisa, who won his maiden impressively and may prove better than rated; so it is choice between banking U, or including LO and possibly S, or go wide

R6: Good race, everybody is looking at the form of the race where Intergalactic beat a few of these 3 weeks ago, (on which Lazer Star looks hard to beat), but imo one has to look deeper than that one run; there is plenty of form suggesting that there is not too much between the likes of Lazer Star, Joan Ranger, Olma, Intergalactic and She's a Dragon, most of which is entitled to improvement after coming back from breaks last time; then we also have Bella Sonata, who has reportedly been aimed at this race for a while, Crown of Roses, who is not that far out of it on ratings and could surprise trying this trip for the first time, Hollie Point, who imo needs further improvement to feature at these weights and the real dark horse, 3 yr old Visuality, who could prove dangerous being in receipt of at least 7.5 kgs from the rest of the field - I'm loading up

R7: In contrast to the fillies' feature, the Spring Challenge looks a gift to the very talented Kangaroo Jack; he comfortably holds St Tropez (surely better further?) on a line through Moofeed; the only danger imo could be his stable companion Champagne Haze who is very talented having beaten both Rabada at level weights and New Predator (giving him 2 kgs); only question is of course how ready he is for this his first run of the season (betting suggests he is not quite ready) - I'm not taking any chances and will be including both Alexander runners

R8: Fillies and mares handicap which could throw us a curve ball; however looking at Ektifaa's penultimate run in the maidens where she finished less than half a length behind the talented Seattle Singer, for me she will take some beating here if she gets the extra 250m; the sneaker imo (and this filly REALLY owes me) is Spring Dance - has come right down to 61 from a 75 when running a good enough race in a feature behind the exported Madame Dubois (and close to Joan Ranger and She's a Dragon) - obviously her form since then has been disappointing, but at the weights today over probably her best trip from the plum draw with Hewitson up, I think she could upset the applecart.

R9: Toughest race on the card imo - many with chances and lots will depend if the apprentice can set a reasonable pace on Dynamite Jim - he does seemingly hold all the others he beat last time - but there is doubt in my mind whether young Mr Schwarz will be able to judge the pace correctly - so that leaves the door open - Talbec looks well in so would be my tentative first choice, but I would not like to be caught short if I do manage to stay alive up to here - so the more the merrier :ohmy:

Enjoy

I was mostly right......but still wrong

The most heartbreaking kind of day Frodo...............throws a bit of weight behind LSU's concept of an exotic that,if I understand him right,is not a sudden death bet!
Might be nice to back up existing exotics with a bet that gives returns relative to your degree of accuracy( ie at least get a positive return when you are 90% right!!!!!)