Turffontein Saturday 22/10/16

I had a quick look, to me it looks much more open than the betting suggests, especially the two 3yr old handicaps where the respective ratings are untested at best

Race 3: Captainofmyheart, ran behind some useful sorts and with JP up can only see him coming home lonely. 3/1F

Race 5: Start of the jackpot, Wrecking ball looks well in as a 3 y.o with a bright future, Khumalo looks to suit and the multiple winners has come from the formline. 4/1 2F

This double looks generous at 19/1

Has anyone found first timer comments ?

USO

NEGROAMARO

UNREHEARSED

DAME ELEANOR

AL FAHAD

BRIGHT BRONTE

SINGAPORE SLING

Prosperous punting

Family responsibility got cancelled by wet cricket pitch :dry: So had a closer look; thoughts (on a day where the going is going to play it's part - especially if we get more rain during the afternoon)

R2: A lot will depend on the pace, I think Marcus will take Negroamara to the front with the blinkers or else sit 2nd behind Oasis Queen who could be in the race as a pace setter. I agree with many on here that Negroamaro (provided the blinkers does anot affect her negatively) will turn the tables today. Juxtapose imo held at the weights and would also prefer the stand side track

R3: Open handicap - Mr Mulliner is my first choice - a winner at his only try over this track and trip, does not mind softer conditions, trainer & jock both in good form as well, so 6/1 a fair price imo; Dreamuponadream is now (with the allowance) better off than when he last won a year ago over this track and trip (and was given 8 points at the time), so from a fair draw I think he will be right there and is another who looks good value at current odds; CaptainofmyHeart must have chance as well but does not represent value at 3/1 imo while Ronnie Rocket seems held by MM but does have a quartet chance

R4: First timer Unrehearsed all the rage to win and obviously must be included in everything - but tough to bank for me as he may just be found out by this turn coupled by a widish draw; Racethegreenlight drawn on the outside of U, but has the experience, so Marcus should have not problems in placing him - Steal a March was gaining on R last time, but the jock (0 wins from 115 rides in the last 12 months) is the reason why he is trading at 5 times the odds of R - could knock a lot of people out of the P6 should he win, so for me both SaM and Cedrus Libani (heavily backed last time before a rest and hails from the in-form J v Vuuren yard) go into a 'larger P6'

R5: Handicap sprint for the females; on form I can't split Easy Game, Wrecking Ball and Announcing Rain, however the draw could favor the 2 Azzie runners over WB; Bonnie Dawn has beaten multiple winner British Royale only receiving 1 kg, so despite a tricky draw needs inclusion imo and although I prefer others, it is probably not a wise move to ignore 'Superman' on Perfumed Lady and the J v Vuuren trained Seattle Lady

R6: First of the 3yr old handicaps - this one for the fillies; I don't trust the ratings at this stage; at the weights I think Turn Back Time will make them run and I also believe Open Road is well weighted - although the stable normally bring them back needing a run or two; Miss Turbo has the plum draw and is clearly better than her last start; for me the favorites (although they obviously can't be ignored) are no value at current odds

R7: 3yr old handicap for the boys - and apart from the first leg, this is the race which will determine the P6 div; either Al Fahad wins resulting in a smallish div, or he gets beat and you are probably looking at a 6 figure div; at first glance, looking at his maiden win when beating Doosra, AF looks the part - but I'm mostly playing to beat the hotties, so who can beat him? Lotus Elan imo much better than his run at Scottsville, but the draw has not done him any favors and frankly the form of most of the rest does not look that inspiring - Oomph for me is still too high in the handicap. But I have found 2 that might upset that applecart - Bold Viking ran a fair race in feature company last time where he had excuses, and is bred to improve the trip and would be the main danger to the fav imo; the real roughie is Old Oak Tree - weighted to turn the tables on Lotus Elan and also jumps from pole position receiving 6 kg's from the favorite - worth including for those chasing the BIG one

R8: Another handicap where at least half the field can win; again I think the draw may prove the deciding factor, so Moofeed is my first choice - he also would appreciate a wet surface should any rain arrive before the race; Janoobi looks very talented, but the betting suggests that he may be in need of this run, so the main dangers to M are probably Lunar Approach, Front Rank (actually holds LA on the Grand Heritage run) and the consistent Pivotal Pursuit who loves the track and trip; again probably would be foolish to ignore 'Superman'

R9: Real nightmare to close and one would not want to be caught short if you get this far; 3 of the longer priced runners that imo must be considered on form, are Tricia du Pont (was fancied by the stable last week, but disappointed) Consequentially (may improve with blinkers) and Rajen's Babe (not striding out last time so should improve on the more forgiving ground and also tries a set of blinkers)

Enjoy

Quick Double for today Smiling Blue Eyes and Querari Falcon

bayern wrote: R6, Sweet Lady Jade being a two time winner could be well in here. If the traveling hasn't taken it's toll, from a decent draw, i make her the one they all have to beat.

Can get beat

royal president wrote:

bayern wrote: R6, Sweet Lady Jade being a two time winner could be well in here. If the traveling hasn't taken it's toll, from a decent draw, i make her the one they all have to beat.

Can get beat

Beatable, no doubt, just think being a two time winner carrying 55.5kgs, she must have a shout. She could be ahead of her rating. Listening to the Tarry interview, he not sure as to the strength of what she beat in KZN, last time. Well she beat winners which must count for something, as opposed to being a Maiden winner, just my opinion though. Having said that, Tarry feels she'll go okay and that's good enough for me.

race 2 4/5/3/2

Second run after a rest syndrome for both Querari Falcon and Negroamaro just like Harry Da wheels Last night.

When Tarry said on USO that he felt Tahini will not win, I thought "ouch, it's gonna make you look silly if it does."

And it came to pass