I have come to learn that the heart is 1 of the MAIN causes for punters to fail.Simply coz we get attached very quickly when it comes to racing!!!! We make a few bucks on a certain horse,and that horse gets 'talked up' on here...and in return we form a bond with that horse!!! In my experiences I have learned not to be biased,but to rather let the form decide!!! Gone are the days I would banker Marcus on a horse with good form,but mostly for the fact that SUPERMAN is riding it!!! Gone are the days were I follow 'TALKED UP' horses from ABC,SP and various other shows and presenters!!! Let's take a look at MARINESCO for example...
He has been pumpled by LE 2* now,yet people continue to rave abt him...M this and M that...yes he will be better over further...that's for sure...but 1 thing M fans are overlooking....
LE is sheer CLASS...and the distance of the summer will pose no problem whatsoever!!!! In the few races he has run over similar distances he has won 3 ,ran a 2nd to SmartCall and a close up 5th behind POWER KING in the July where he had excuses. The races he won over those distances he did so against decent fields and won with AUTHORITY going away!!!! Sure he looks best over a mile but I doubt the distance will be a problem at all. It should be obvious to all that I'm a huge LE fan,but these statements are based on facts...not coz I like him. I am sure M fans will make a case(s) for M aswell, but to those I would say watch the replays i will still,however,when the time comes...look at the complete race to find the winner,and not beforehand...say that LE will win.
The difference between pro's and us novices are that we gamble with our hearts...instead of without brains,wouldn't you all agree??? Also,I read a lot of times on here how guys struggle to win in racing,I think the main 2 problems are:
1) people want to win to much to fast...greed!!!
2) we are always over thinking things...so we look to much into form!!!! Racing is quite simple to say the least,most just overcook it in looking for that perfect system(speaking from experience)
Let's get it right and kick ass in 2017!!!! Just thought I'd share these thoughts,as guys on all forums are raving abt the banker on Summer day...Marinaresco,lol.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Mac, Andycap, kt6747
There is no better place than backing my favourite horse with my heart. Heinrich, for me, that is what makes the difference between horseracing and the casino. Having said that, money management disciplines carry paramount importance.
nice write up Heinrich, we all have our favorite horses, no doubt about it.
but like Mac comment, thats what makes it racing. we all love to see a champion,
the emotions and the sheer adrenalin that comes with it, its only human to feel this way.
and you right, many out there just want to get rich fast and forget the beauty of this game.
The biggest and most basic overall factor is punters aren't even really honest with themselves!
The best lie is ...."I only race for fun"
Seriously? So one day you decided that you needed more fun in your life so thought "OK,I'll start gambling on horses and what fun it will be to lose a slice of my income every month."
:woohoo:
Everybody started betting hoping to make a few bob,and if/when that failed,the only justification for not stopping was to develop the "it's just for fun" theory :ohmy:
Once punters are honest that they really would like to show a profit they can start developing a winning strategy and I agree with Heinrich...the single biggest step is to aim for realistic returns!
I hope Sealegs won't mind me using his post to illustrate!
He mentioned he sat down on Saturday with a kitty of R2500.
I will guess that before he started he was aiming at much more than a 5% profit (R125),but by mid afternoon he would have been delighted to break square!
Most people would be very happy with a net investment returns of 15% pa
But punters scoff at 5% per meeting...which is over 2000% pa.
On a constant kitty of R2500,at a consistent 5% per meeting,the profit of R52,000 pa
That is probably more attainable than most people are trying to achieve,but then how many even know what they trying to achieve?
Fully agree Rob. A target of 5-10% profits per meeting is more than enough.The problem thou,is like I said before,people want to get rich too fast by betting big out of the blocks,..the example of sealegs are a case in point that many fall victim to.
Let me make an example...
So its payday...you have your say R2000 to bet with for the month...so you decide to go with R500 per card,you can't lose right? Must win somewhere...so the 4 cards you choose,everything just goes wrong! You lose your whole bank. The remainder of the month you tip here on ABC and your selections are flying in,everybody thinks you making big bucks,when in actual fact you didn't bet a cent. But this scenario reastablishes your confidence...you can do it...you will win LOADS!!!! Months on end similar things happen,and months on end you either show small profits or none whatsoever and the losses keep on stacking up. Your don't understand,coz you know you CAN pick winners on regular basis,but WHY are you still losing??? The answer is simple...poor money management!!!! Coz you in a hurry to win BIG fast,you go years on end without showing a actual profit becoz YOU MUST WIN ALOT NOW. But if you used a better money management strategy,you probably could've made a profit for the year.
When my clients started out with me,I thought them a simple HOW TO BUILD A BANK strategy which we use for long term profits to increase from month to month. Here's the simple strategy...If you have let's say R2000 per month to gamble...you decide on how many cards you will gamble...so let's say the answer is 20. You devide R2000 by 20 and you'll get R100. So now,for the next 20 cards you bet only R100 per card. If your betting strategy is sound,you should make profits on a monthly basis. After 3-6 months...your will have a bank of some sort,so now you can increase your daily spending amount,so as time goes by,with your strategy remaining the SAME you will have an even bigger bank,so your outlay can increase and thus your nett profit will as well.
To make things simpler...Targeting those Tracks which you are best at,will yield bigger profits aswell.An example would be like this...
To us,we use Fairview,turffontein and Kenilworth as TARGET CARDS,simply coz this is the tracks I excel at. These cards we normally punt hard. Other tracks like Greyville and vaal we would also have a small go depending if something good is found,but 1st and foremost the TC's take priority!
The betting system shouldn't involve too much complication either...if you're good at winning regular bipots or pa...that should be your thing.if you good at ATC's ...that should be your thing...keep it as simple as possible.
This strategy depends on 3 MAJOR FACTORS thou...
Patience,Consistency and and Persistency. It also comes down to the individual himself,what are your goals and are YOU willing to endure the torture of sticking to a game plan long enough to yield profits.In my group,I have abt 3-5 guys making very very decent profits monthly,guys that started with as low as R120 per day 18-24 months back,making easily more than 30k+ per month now...on the other end I have clients who barely make 5k per month,but they started at the same time or sooner as those previously mentioned. No matter how much I yell at them swear them,they are just too clever. Thus had led me to believe that it is just human nature for some to be dumb when it comes to betting,even when they having winners shove down their throats. Most guys on here know enough abt racing to make a decent living from it...but most on here want a 100-300% return on investment. They laugh at the thought of Rob's 5%!!! Abt 10yrs ago,when I started punting, I use to place 1 R100 place bet on a fav returning 2-3/10 a place. While I was only winning R20 or R30 a day,my SR was abt 99% with these!!!! So it helped me realize,that with a realistic approach,NOTHING in gambling is impossible!!!! People just have the wrong mindset when it comes to punting, they think 'coz I can't do it,its not possible' but if you take a closer look at what some guys post on here,you will soon realize that these guys are more correct than wrong,so if theory have a sound betting strategy,making profits is not impossible at all....its all abt what you truly want and what you are willing to do to achieve it,with the proper mindset...a thing is possible,even for the average Joe punter.
A number of factors will determine your success, or lack thereof, at punting.
We all tend to talk from personal experience so I can only quote mine :
1.) I only started making a profit from punting when I switched my attention from horse racing to sport. In a punting career which started in 1972 this means that I lost consistently in varying degrees up until about the turn of the century. So you can definitely accuse me of being a slow learner (aka 'a mug').
2.) Allied to the switch was a better understanding of money management. This is very important as EMOTION often influences the bet.
Example : I have long argued that there is little reason to have a punt on 'big days' if you are driven by logic rather than emotion. The quality of the fields makes successfully picking winners that much more difficult. At the very most you should wager no more than you would on a bog standard maiden plate. Unfortunately we all believe that there is an additional benefit (bragging rights!) to be enjoyed by backing a July or Met winner.
You are better served just watching & having a good laugh observing all around you doing their money in buckets.
3.) I do still punt on horses but off a 'bank' of R20k & seldom speculate more than 5% of that bank on any one event. That is more often than not a lifesaver.
4.) I play almost exclusively on UK racing because I find their markets & form more trustworthy and accurate.
5.) I seldom win on favourites but, as I never study form, am very well guided by Timeform in finding a surprisingly large number of big priced winners. To illustrate my point I quote a real example from Wolverhampton just yesterday :
The race in question featured a horse which looked unlikely to lose; quoted at 6/10. Timeform cited only ONE real opponent which was offered at 20/1. In a race such as this I will typically put R1000 on the favourite to win R600 & then use at least R500 of that anticipated profit to back the roughie. In this particular instance I doubled up as there genuinely appeared to be no others that might trouble the two selections.
To my delight the 20/1 shot got up on the post to short head the 6/10 shot. So the race returned a profit to me of about R18,000 without excessive risk. Had the favourite held on I would have cleared about R200. The remainder were 3+ lengths back.
Forgetting the above quoted 'gelukskoot' for a moment I am usually more than happy to clear R2000 - R5000 per day. If I reach that profit level early in the afternoon I STOP IMMEDIATELY.
3.) All racing wins are normally used to fund my sport betting. I usually like to play into long term events with a goal of 2 big pay days per annum if I am 'lucky' enough.
4.) I only punt on rugby & football. I punt football only because there is little rugby activity that I am familiar with between December - February. I also seldom back SA sides because they are unreliable. Rather like local racing. Lol.
5.) Sport requires a different type of technique & discipline. I tend to use multiples (eg double, trebles and quite big 'all to comes'. Surprising as it may seem I land multiples of 5+ events quite regularly). Multiples are used to offset shorter pricing as I NEVER involve myself in a bet where my best outcome sees me win less than I staked.
6.) I have certain rules in sport. eg I never back the 'away' side no matter how tempting it may be.
7.) Training oneself to back outsiders is REALLY difficult psychologically but potentially very profitable.
8.) Restricting potential losses is actually more important to me than going for a big win.
This is one reason why a jockey such as Anton Marcus would be of no help to my punting other than to provide me with better odds on any horse that might beat him.
Rob's advice regarding 'profit' is gold! Take an 'annual' view on your activities as you will inevitably encounter both 'purple' and 'black' patches. If you are disciplined during a 'black' patch you will avoid falling in by chasing with bigger and more reckless bets.
9.) Determine which activities are your strong suit & focus on them.
10.) Avoid the tote - the sheer expense of most of the bets and the impact that has on your returns makes it even more difficult to profit in what is already a very hard activity.
Make a PROFIT this year because making even modest money from a hobby is one of life's true pleasures!
The following user(s) said Thank You: Andycap, kt6747, Floyd
Cheers guys and your right and its discipline, however discipline and a bottle of JWB are not coupled on the tote
When we are winning we think we are invincible and can retire after a days racing
When we losing we dont want to stop that day we want to chase until we have to give the cream cookie a few post toasties
The only real solution is not to have a bet, totally abstain.
I did try at one stage and some bastard invented Betfair, what an opportunity to beat the system , but the above rules still applied
Play what you can afford.Going out to see a movie or going out for dinner costs a lot these days.That would set you back around R700 or so for two of you to watch a film and dinner.Skip it every second time and you got some money to bet and maybe you could even make a profit
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