Turf Sat 4 Feb

Some time on my hands - see there is a P6 C/O - maybe we can even catch it ....

R1: I think this lies between Key Hostess and Succesfilly; KH on debut finished in front of Gunship who then easily beat She's Foxy - KH also finished abt 1.5 lengths in front of Osculation who subsequently finished abt 1.3 lengths behind Succesfilly; KH has pole position which should give her the edge imo; She's Foxy could be challenged for 3rd by Beautiful Emmilee, who ran a fair race last time over this trip; the only other (apart from the first timers of course) who look to have some sort of chance of finishing in the quartet, is Brighton Belle.

R2: Tharoos should take a lot of beating here; a line through Moshav puts him abt 2 lengths in front of Mess, who appears to be the main danger; jockey arrangements may suggest that the first timer Var's Your Daddy could be the stable elect from the Gray stable; the others imo have shown very moderate form to date; so Tharoos to win from Mess, with any of Call to Battle, Racing Free, Seattle Seahawk, Soldat and Var's Your Daddy to fill the minor places

R3: A weak looking maiden for fillies, where Cold Cash has shown nice improvement in her 2nd start; however she did not seem to find too much at the finish over shorter, so nothing clear cut here; Bandana is bred to prefer this trip and can't be ignored, while the other Silvano filly, first timer Parabola does not have to that good to feature. Both Legend Seeker and Cinnamon Slew look moderate, but could fight out minor money with Flamingo Vlei, who was disappointing last time, but may be worth another chance.

R4: Jackman certainly overdue to win and won't find many easier opportunities to get out of the maidens; however a slightly wide draw, plus the fact that he has been beaten favorite a few times, may be some cause for concern, but the opposition looks no great shakes; Aristocat on a line through Space Tornado, looks well held and there does not seem to be a lot between A and Graf Spree; also not a lot between Silva Touch and Dash - I'm taking a chance on Jackman to finally get it right

R5: This looks a very competitive handicap - apart from the obvious contenders Detonation (2nd run after a long break, better further?), Fangia, Bush Pilot (blinkers, but judged on riding arrangements, perhaps not the stable elect?), and Baracah (at best when Striker rides), even runners out at the weights like Klondike River and Zillionaire (improving and has run well at this course), do not seem totally out of it - just go the field ?

R6: Conditions plate for fillies and mares; many may be prepping so who knows; Polyphonic one of those possibly prepping, but she is best in and has run less than 4 lengths behind Bela-Bela at level weights - so can't be ignored; Kilauea looks very well weighted and should be right there; a roughie to consider could be Silver Class, who has a nice draw and does seem better over this shorter trip; those are my top 3, but most of the others except Be Mine Tonight, although having something to find, can not be totally ignored imo

R7: Interesting handicap; Unagi has seemingly lost form after gelding, but this is his 3rd run back and he probably did not enjoy the blinkers last time; he is 2 from 2 this trip, so a definite inclusion imo; on a line through Tilbury Fort, I prefer Pagoda to the favorite Shukamisa and also on a line through Samurai Blade, he looks very well in here with Unagi; possibly these 3 to fight it out

R8: Tough fillies and mares handicap; many of these have a 'but' to attach to their names.... Span die Seile 3rd run after a rest, must have chance from pole position, BUT may just be a little high in the handicap ? Our Miracle won last two in a row, BUT now goes 1600; Sisters of Mercy also won her last start, BUT that was on the stand side track (she has however won 4 times at this course), Inga must also be in with a shout BUT may need further, Jo Mambo won her maiden in her penultimate by 7 lengths, BUT comes off a poor last run, Beautiful Shay weighted to get close to (if not beat) Dawn Flight, BUT seems at best over a straight course and the biggest BUT ..... Diamond Coast is the favorite, BUT runs with steel shoes and has been out for 248 days - false favorite imo, etc. Maybe the smallest BUTs are attached to Span die Seile and Sisters of Mercy, while the roughie imo is Bonne Vie, whose rating has plummeted from 86 to 69 :ohmy:

R9: Not an easy close Last Outlaw comes off a break during which he was gelded, so chances are he may need this and has a double figure draw to boot - he ran 2nd in the million rand race at Scottsville last year earning his connections a very tidy sum indeed - the form of that race makes for some strange reading - he beat both Bold Rex (deemed good enough to run in the Queens Plate) and The High Life (winner of 3 of her next 4 starts) by more than 3 lengths, yet none of the runners that finished in front of these two, has managed to win again :huh: More relevant in context of this race, Old Oak Tree was 4.25 lengths behind LO at level weights - and this time OOT (who has his 2nd run after a gelding) gets 5.5 kgs from LO - food for thought The other interesting runner imo is Neuf de Pape, who last January ran very well in a Grad Plate behind Rainy Day Blues over this trip - NDF must have had his problems, as this is only his 4th start since, but his MR has come down by a whopping 14 points and his last 2 runs were fair - a must inclusion imo; there are others like the maiden winners West Coast Warrior (drawn wide) and Brave Nation (1600 ?) as well as Arpad (better 1400?) who need consideration, but depending on how the P6 is structured, it may be an idea to go with only Last Outlaw, Old Oak Tree and Neuf de Pape in the final leg

Enjoy

Incredible stuff thanks Bud

Wow FRODO you are the legend.

Race 1: I have She's Foxy running. She has come on from her first run, and will enjoy the extra ground. I expect her to be in the first three. Nice filly.
Race 2: An interesting runner here is Racing Free. Was a very impressive looking yearling and showed some ability before the long break. Obviously has issues- one to watch in the canter past.
race 4: Jackman short price but a pick 6 banker in this weak field.
Race 6: Polyphonic is weighted to win if not needing the run. Shaama won nicely after a long break and should be respected. Sensible Lover is better than her last run. Kilauea and Bella Sonata the other two for the quartet.
Race 7: Bi Pot looks good ew value at 10/1.
Race 8: Dawn Flight fair value at 7/1

Wow Frodo, u must have worked half day today !

R 4 it would not surprise me if ARISTOCAT beats JACKMAN.

Jackman 7 places from 8, Aristocat 6 places from 9 Just seems that JACKMAN, always the bridesmaid an not the GROOM.

I wouldn't banker Jackman in my P6

I cant see anything in race 6 beating Crystal Glamour. Watch out for the Alexander double

Frank wrote: I cant see anything in race 6 beating Crystal Glamour. Watch out for the Alexander double

Crystal Glamour is 4kg worse off with Kilauea for a neck. Will be a big surprise if she wins at these weights.

Vars Your Daddy.

Difficult to call the last race with a neck , in the way it was won. Not many horses lead start to finish. But it will be interesting.

Bonski talks to Tarry

fark me Frodo, I remember the days you used to do the same and be "lucky" to just get me giving you a thank you, about time you got the credit your excellent write ups deserve

I won't ruin it all by commenting that on the first 4 race races (all I've looked at) we tend to agree a fair amount... cos we always seem to do sh1t when we agree! lol

R6
Shaama - Well in here and Callan rides for MDK.Track and trip will suit imo and unlikely to be off the boil
Im expecting Kilauea to run a good race and Polyphonic is also classy but this could be too short