Turffontein Saturday 01/04/17

R3 small field
Celestina ew

I agree with u bob
Babbling brooke danger in da classic

Bob Brogan wrote: I think the Classics are wide open

Know some judges that took the 25/1 Kampal Campari

Don't agree - I think only a few horses have realistic chances - I do think though that the form from Guineas Day will not necessarily hold up - going was soft and wide draws were not that bad as the better going was on the outside down the straight - so everything that came wide ran well - today by contrast the going should be fair all over - so wider draws around the turn should prove more of a disadvantage

A marathon 12 race card awaits - and the last 3 races seem the most difficult to predict; on the other hand the earlier races look easier and P6 looks catchable - especially as Legal Eagle seems to be home and hosed ....

R3: With Kissable out, Green Plains look the right one, with Outlander the danger

R4: Not sure what to make of the jockey arrangements .... both Tarry runners have the Jooste connection, so maybe Khumalo did not have the choice - I'm including both in the P6 just in case (stable also seem to think that Silver God is not without a chance) - and with Alfolk a non-runner, these 2 should be sufficient - Laurent du Var did run close to Pretty Polly winner Daring Diva giving her weight, so is one to consider for that 'dream' P6

R5: Green Pepper is drifting on the boards, so the word may be out that she is not 100% ready - can't be ignored of course, but this does give the race an open appearance; Red Chestnut Road was very impressive as a juvenile, but has to show that he can reproduce that form as a 3yr old - I'm not sure he can give weight away to very capable runners like Raasmaal and Clever Guy and even Aussie Austin, who gets a tongue to help with breathing issues; then the filly Exquisite Touch won a feature handicap easily over 1000, giving subsequent winner Seattle Singer a 3.5 length beating; I'm loading up

R6: Everything points to Legal Eagle; he is devastating at this track and he has to run quite some way below his best to get beat; if that were to happen, the obvious ones to do that would be New Predator or Rafeef (on breeding, a true run 1600 will be really stretching him); imo French Navy has not run to his rating since June last year.

R7: The Fillies Classic, and I think Smiling Blue Eyes may be flattered a bit by her Fillies Guineas win - drawn wide, she found the better going on the outside down the straight, so while not to be ignored, imo she is beatable; for me stable mate Safe Harbour will make her 9 points advantage count today and beat SBE; Al Hawraa could get closer, however I can't really see her beating SBE, but stable mate Orchid Island is another matter; imo she found the worse going down the inside in the Fillies Guineas and although I think she will be at best over even more ground, I think she can go close today; Bi-Pot really has to improve by another 5 or so lengths, so this may have come too soon for her; Being Fabulous is one to consider for the places (and larger P6 perms) - only ran 2 lengths behind SBE in November (others like Al Hawraa, Orchid Island and Babbling Brooke were beaten my more than that in the Fillies Guineas)

R8: All things being considered, this really should lie between Al Sahem and Heavenly Blue; I prefer Al Sahem as he was said to have missed some work leading up to the Guineas and still very nearly pulled it off; but HB can't be just ignored

R9: Open fillies and mares handicap; my first 3 would be Patchit Up Baby, a winner this trip, so has a lot going for her; Negroamara gets the jock back for which she ran her best races in KZN last year; seems held though by Patchit on their runs in December; Polyphonic is my 3rd choice - has been disappointing this year, and does seem held by N on their runs in the Woolavington, but N may not be quite the same filly now most of the others imo are much of a muchness

R10: Stayers race, where the Marwing stable holds a big hand; Zafira very consistent and has an obvious chance, has to give weight though to her stable mate Let It Rain, who ran a great race behind Brazuca last week and looks the value imo; Save the Rhino should turn the tables on Royal Honour

The last 2 races look very open, so I'm not going to to take any guesses

Enjoy

Race 1
Hewitson on a big roughy Snow Boarding but clearly Nassif rates it for travelling to capetown earlier, can upset and from ideal draw can run close.
Race 2
Hewitson on HUHI will be hard to beat . No other horse with early pace so will get to the front easy , dictate and skip clear in the straight. Bipot banker

Hewitson race 1 and 2 : win double 80/1 and place double 3/1

Race 3
Green plains will be very tough to beat, banker in everything.

Race4
Silver God bumped a very good sort first time out. He was clear 2nd , 8 lenghs infront of 3rd. Halfbrother to william longsword and can win. PA and Bipot banker but in pick 6 i will include the 1 and 3

Race 5
Green pepper is a superstar but stable form is erratic because of a virus. Still going to banker her!

Race 6
Legal eagle surely is the best miler but plenty pace in the race and they will try to keep him wide and make him work hard to dictate, i just got a feeling that something can happen in this race. I will banker LE in pa and bipot but going 1 3 5 6 7 9 in pick 6

Race 7
All smiling blue eyes 'wins was in soft/wet going. Big concern. Big upsets can happen again, i go field in pick 6 and almost half the field in pa and bipot

Race 8
Al sahem still improving and can be the next big 3yo of the year, i will go 2 and 3 in pa but add 1 5 and 7 in pick 6

Race 9
Fillies handicap to end exotics.... always trouble...... i like the Tyrone Zackey/ Craig Zackey combo on a very nice price 14/1 Pennington Sands, weighted to run a blinder . Best value bet on the day.
Pa i will go 1 2 3 and 8 and pick 6 i will add 9 and 10

Didnt check last 3 races, will be counting money or will be on street begging by then :silly:

Enjoy the day guys
Hit them hard

Race 1: Aurelia Cotta to beat Like a Panther- box exacta
Race 3: Outlander to just beat the Tarry pair
Race 4: Barrack Street. Dangers Silver God and Quinlan
Race 5: Exquisite Touch. Roughie ew is Aussie Austin.
Race 6: Legal Eagle
Race 7: Safe Harbour to beat Smiling Blue Eyes, Al Hawra and Orchid Island.
Race 8: Al Sahem to beat Heavenly Blue
Race 9: Negroamaro in an open race
Race 10: Zafira
Race 11: Shine Bright in an open race.
Race 12: Street Flyer another open race

Race 1

Number 5 LIKE A PANTHER. HTB

Safe harbour ,
Seattle singer if Gp is not at best, with a shout to the Ramsden horse Who will be up here to prove what he is about.
Heavenly blue.
Legal Eagle is a star but this is a very dangerous race and I'm not lumping on.
One of those days where watching them go down and reading the trainers expressions will be telling.

Easter Bet
Pillar of Hercules
Captain Gambler
Polly Wolly Doodle

P6
1,7/7,8/1/1,3,5,6,12/1/1,2,5,3,13

P6 straight
7/8/1/1/1/1

Janoobi
Polyphonic
Zafira
Bright Bronte

Sweet Coetzee wrote: I like SK in Races 1.3.4 and 6.... Tarry should clean up!

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1 down!

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I think SK will win again R2! All 2 come, SK win R2 and R3 add Places R6... Max bet

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10) 7 Let It Rain 9-1

PeterD wrote: Race 1: Aurelia Cotta to beat Like a Panther- box exacta
Race 3: Outlander to just beat the Tarry pair
Race 4: Barrack Street. Dangers Silver God and Quinlan
Race 5: Exquisite Touch. Roughie ew is Aussie Austin.
Race 6: Legal Eagle
Race 7: Safe Harbour to beat Smiling Blue Eyes, Al Hawra and Orchid Island.
Race 8: Al Sahem to beat Heavenly Blue
Race 9: Negroamaro in an open race
Race 10: Zafira
Race 11: Shine Bright in an open race.
Race 12: Street Flyer another open race

Good start