Turffontein Saturday 01/04/17

Race 12: Kings Archer grab some of the 9/2 if u can , too far last time , ran to much stronger recently , a master at judging pace on top :woohoo: :woohoo:

Betting open for all races

Thought Banking April had an ew chance

Not that i think it will win, Woodruff only has one runner on such a big day, wow.

Played the treble :-

R1) Like A Panther (2/1) X (R3) Kissable (12/10) X (R5) Ektifaa (11/2)

Like A Panther good debut effort from the widest draw. The favourite, Aurelia Cotta, is a filly taking on the boys, don't think she beat much and the De Kock stable will have a line on the favourite through Rumbavar who finished 2nd that day. From draw 3, I think Marcus can pull this off.

R3, Kissable, if running to the form which saw her skate home in her first two starts, this will be no contest. For me, she is the best bet on the card.

R5, this is an interesting race because of the fillies, Green Pepper (2/1), Exquisite Touch (5/1) and Ektifaa (11/2). I am brassing Red Chestnut Road (dons the egg visor), he may need the run. I don't think Green Pepper at 2/1 represents any value when you consider she is conceding 5.0kgs to Exquisite Touch for a 4.75 length beating. Exquisite Touch is no slouch and must have a reasonable chance of finishing ahead of Green Pepper. For me the one to beat is Ektifaa. The Fillies Classic trip of 1800m may be a touch far, and whilst her exposed form may suggest she is not an out and out sprinter, this is a filly who races fairly handy and enjoys a scrap. She has taken on and beaten the colts at wfa terms and not where she was shoo-in on handicapping. If not badly outpaced early in the race, she is the one they all have to fend off.

I fancy the Ektifaa/Rafeef double good e/w bet

Race 3 - No bet

At the prices of 13/10 vs 5/2 I can't split Kissable and Green Plains so for now no bet. Kissable if you ignore her last start would walk this but who knows how well she is..And I thought Green Plains was super impressive on debut and then ran 2nd to Daring Diva who's still unbeaten. So for me it's tight. Maybe Kissable if I was forced to choose.

Race 4 - again no bet. Barrack Street should be winning this but at 9/10 is too low for a Juvenile to have a strike. Maybe an e/w on Laurent Du Var once he drifts
more.


Race 5 - Green Pepper 5/2

An absolute star of a filly. I think even JVV was surprised that she won so well LTO. She needed that and now should be nearing peak fitness. She's better over 1100 than the minimum trip IMO and she'll take some beating here. She's probably well weighted too if her rating is close to accurate.

Do agree with Bayern about Ektifaa being the biggest danger if GP fluffs her lines. Another classy filly and has all the speed to cope with the trip but I can't go against Green Pepper who's just brushed everything aside with ease thus far.


Horse Chestnut - Rafeef 8/1

Rafeef, like Green Pepper, have been really cash machines for me personally and I always like to stick with them when they owe me nothing. I don't expect him to beat Legal Eagle but for the sake of loyalty I'll have a tickle on him. I do think the mile perhaps is his limit and he's most likely better over 7 furlongs but he prefers the standside so should cope with it better than on the inside.


Fillies Classic - Orchid Island 11/2

Smiling Blue Eyes is a worthy favourite and destroyed the field LTO and is the most likely winner here but I'm giving Orchid Island another chance. Her demolition job of some fair colts(Pagoda just won the Derby trial) came over this distance and she should relish the rise in trip. At 11/2 she's my bet here.

SA Classic - Al Sahem 12/10

Like many here, I'm on Al Sahem. Keep in mind the guineas was only his 3rd start and he apparently missed some work leading up to that so for him to go down a nostril was impressive. He still didn't know what to do and in the last few metres got his mind on the job and gave Janoobi a huge fright.

Distance should be ideal and hopefully he makes the natural progression to win this.

Looks like fitting a tongue tie is the way to go

Equipment Changes
Race No. Horse No. Horse Name Equipment Changed Time Date Adv. Advised By
2 7 Brave Nomad Tongue Tie On 11:58 20170331 S Tarry
3 7 Celestina Tongue Tie On 11:58 20170331 S Tarry
4 7 Silver God Tongue Tie On 11:58 20170331 S Tarry
6 5 French Navy Tongue Tie On 11:59 20170331 S Tarry
11 3 Consequentially Tongue Tie On 11:59 20170331 S Tarry

Taking bets early want to enjoy my day at the races.

Straight line PA
1-1-3-1-2-2-2

Pick 6
1
1-3
1
1-2
2-3
Field

Aurelia
Walker
Kissable
Barrack
Green
Legal
Smiling
Heavenly

Can all win worth a few doubles and trebles and ATCs

Its punters day to give the bookies a good smack and get the Cheltenham money back

Good punting

Tarry races 1/3/4/6/7/8/12

Play to WIN

Negromara my bet for the day

A few thoughts on the other races :-

R2, Walker is taking on some really average sorts and will not get a better opportunity of breaking out the maiden ranks. Keep an eye on the betting support for Brave Nomad, if any, he is the obvious danger.

R4, one has to respect Khumalo's choice being stable jockey, however Barrack Street could not have been more impressive when winning last time out. Being a two time winner, going to stick with the devil I know.

R6, Legal Eagle.

R7, in terms of seeing out the distance, you would have to side with Smiling Blue Eyes, she was an easy winner over 1600m last time out, and an even easier winner over 2000m. She should have no problems staying the 1800m. I make Al Hawraa the danger.

R8, a slow run race and we could get a result. If run at a true pace, the favourite Al Sahem, looks like he will appreciate the extra.

R9, I make Negroamaro the one to beat here. I have loads of respect for Banking April and at a decent price, 12.5/1.

R10, I make Zafira the one to beat, despite the girl taking on the boys.

Sylvester wrote: Negromara my bet for the day

I too like a little bit of her