Vaal Tuesday

High Tide wrote: My P6

1/6,13/1,3,4,10/4,5,6,7/1,4,5,11/2 = R128 (1X)

dashing wrote: nephrite onto joey piper 10/1

Frodo wrote: Does not look that difficult

R1: Money suggests a match race - stable comments don't justify the support - who knows - to be safe I'll include the Tarry runner in the BP

R2: Again the betting suggests a winning debut by the imported Lady Burn - again to be on the safe side, I'm backing her up with the Tarry runner who looks the obvious danger - Tidal Tussle another who could feature with Hallucination who could improve with the aid of a tongue-tie

R3: Pilou probably has to fall over to lose

R4: The juvenile filly Cals Crush is drawn on the inside, but faces a weak field and is another who looks tough to beat

R5: Could prove another Tarry benefit day - the favorite Rebel to the Fore only has to bring her form to the track to win this - she does have her problems though (only her 6th run in the 2 years that she has been racing). If the wheels do come off, it looks like the only ones who can take advantage, would be Gratuity, Outlander and Rebel's Diamond

R6: First of the handicaps and my preference is for Sammi Moosa who has the draw, from the luckless Russian Friend who is overdue to win her 2nd race; Dalley imo has a tough task at the weights and the 1600 also probably a touch on the sharp side - still needs inclusion though with Beautiful Shay, Silvery Dream and Inkolo

R7: Again a few stand out imo; Trading Profit, Nephrite and Intandokazi all look ready to win again and I can't really split them; Trip to Troy races without blinkers and likes this track, so could surprise, while Var's Your Daddy is lightly raced but imo needs further improvement as the form of his last start look suspect to say the least

R8: Imo, Joey Piper on exposed form has this lot beat; first run after gelding, but the jockey booking seems to indicate that all is well. Cannes is finding form again and could be the main danger from William Nicol and Chief Sioux, who like the juvenile Tribal Force, need to show that they are effective over 1200

Enjoy

louisg wrote: My humble opinions -
1) Sean Tarry comments - I understand where he is coming from. Almost every horse that he is saddling nowadays is favourite. If he nominated the stable cat it would be favourite in a Feature. Ultimately, the form of the horse is not taken into account. For many years we saw this happen with Piere Strydom and it still happens when he is up on my horses. This is why he is often perceived as being negative. Often he is on a horse which was beaten by 2 or 3 other runners in the race in its last start, yet he is favorite and far shorter than those 2 or 3 other runners. Form is not being studied !

2)Now here's the twist- I felt that Gratuity had improved at home and was better than her last run and that she could beat the favourite, so I advised a small bet....
Basically the result proves just how stuffed our MR system is....even if you actually remove the winner !
So, based on that result, throw the form book away !

louisg wrote: My humble opinions -
1) Sean Tarry comments - I understand where he is coming from. Almost every horse that he is saddling nowadays is favourite. If he nominated the stable cat it would be favourite in a Feature. Ultimately, the form of the horse is not taken into account. For many years we saw this happen with Piere Strydom and it still happens when he is up on my horses. This is why he is often perceived as being negative. Often he is on a horse which was beaten by 2 or 3 other runners in the race in its last start, yet he is favorite and far shorter than those 2 or 3 other runners. Form is not being studied !

2)Now here's the twist- I felt that Gratuity had improved at home and was better than her last run and that she could beat the favourite, so I advised a small bet....
Basically the result proves just how stuffed our MR system is....even if you actually remove the winner !
So, based on that result, throw the form book away !