Weights- Durban July

Frodo wrote: Current thoughts on who gets in and who does not - in weight order - probable 'log' position in brackets:

1. Marinaresco – 60 kg (3)
Obviously not his run in the Gold Challenge , but still not an easy task at these weights …. Taking WFA improvement into account, he is around 2.5 kgs worse off than last year … place chance at best for me

2. French Navy – 57.5 kg (11)
Ignore his last run … MR has come down so he will be carrying 2.5 kgs less than last year, but still if you compare him to Brazuca, there is a 2kg swing in favour of B for less than a length difference on their runs in the Champions Challenge …. I can’t have him

3. Master Sabina – 57.5 kg (4)
Probably not much between him and Brazuca, for me both of them has a few lengths to find on current form and MS has 1 kg more to shoulder than last year – not for me

4. Brazuca – 56.5 kg (19)
Imo has something to find at these weights on current form

5. Krambambuli - 56 kg (
Probably not the stable’s leading light – for me his rating is too high and also I think he is better over at least 200m further

6. The Conglomerate – 56 kg (7)
The defending champ – campaign seems to be nicely on track after a fair run at the weights in the Gold Challenge – has to shoulder 0.5 kgs more than last year which should make it close between him and runners like Saratoga Dancer, It’s My Turn and Ten Gun Salute. Jockey arrangements will tell us more – I’m not sure that Marcus would want to get down to 54 to ride Edict of Nantes, so if he sticks with this guy, at current odds of around 18/1 I think he still offers some value

7. Saratoga Dancer – 56 kg (10)
Not the worst run at the weights in the Gold Challenge – taking WFA improvement into account, he comes in at 1.5 kgs less than last year, enough to put him close to The Conglomerate and It’s My Turn – at current odds of around 35/1 he seems nice value and imo has a definite place chance

8. It’s My Turn - 55.5 kg (9)
Good run in the Greyville 1900 …. Striker on top (in preference to Black Arthur ?) …. Well weighted – taking WFA into account comes in at 2 kgs less than last year and should not be much between himself, Saratoga Dancer and The Conglomerate; definite chance imo and probably realistically priced currently at around 17/2

9. Ten Gun Salute - 55.5 kg (5)
Very good win in the Greyville 1900 where he had a rushed prep … may even improve on that …. Definite chance and 16/1 still good value imo

10. Nightingale – 55 kg (12)
Good second in the Tibouchina – not easy to compare with the males – could be stretched to be competitive at these weights

11. Black Arthur – 54.5 kg (15)
Big talking horse; imo he will get in and deserves his place on his win last year in the Daily News and a fair run in last year’s July – should never have been outside the top 25 to start. Very well weighted this year – with WFA improvement is a full 3 kgs better off than last year so should hold runners like It’s My Turn, The Conglomerate, Saratoga Dancer and Ten Gun Salute on that form. Should still improve on his run in the Cup Trial – big chance

12. Edict of Nantes – 54 kgs (1)
Leading 3 yr old with Al Sahem; nothing between them and on a line through Tilbury Fort there should not be much between them and runners like It’s My Turn and Ten Gun Salute; will Marcus get down to 54 kg to ride ?

13. Al Sahem – 53.3 kg (2)
Right on par with Edict of Nantes – obvious chance – will he run and will Delpech take the ride?

14. Mr Winsome – 53.5 kg (13)
Very interesting supplementary entry – hard to know where the panel puts him - will probably need to run well (win?) in the Derby this weekend to get in; if he does get in, he should be very competitive on his run in the Greyville 1900 where he finished 3rd with It’s My Turn and they will be meeting on the same weight terms – looks big value at current odds

15. Elusive Silva – 53 kg (6)
Probably cemented his place with his win in the Cup Trial; will need to improve more as he is now worse off with runners like It’s My Turn and Mr Winsome, while he will also be 1kg worse off with Black Arthur on their Cup Trial runs – place chance

16. Nebula- 53 kg (21)
Unlikely to make the final field after a disappointing effort in the Cup Trial

17. Pagoda – 53 kg (18)
If he gets in, he will be 2kgs under sufferance and looks held by Al Sahem and therefore by Edict of Nantes

18. Horizon – 53 kg (17)
Also touch and go whether he makes the final field – 2,5 kgs out at the weights and also looks held by both Al Sahem and Edict of Nantes on the Daily News form

19. Tilbury Fort – 53 kg (19)
Another that is not certain to make the final field – 2.5 kgs under sufferance and will be worse off with runners like Ten Gun Salute and It’s My Turn

20. Royal Badge – 53 kg (22)
Very unlikely to make the final field and held on form

21. Coral Fever – 53 kg (14)
May get in on his Jubilee win – will be a whopping 4 kgs out at the weights and looks on par with Tilbury Fort – tough task

22. Safe Harbour 52 kg (16)
May get in – has been on the go all year – low weight gives her an outside chance


There will probably be only a few runners under sufferance, so it will be more or less a proper handicap and therefore competitive with no 'stand-outs' - at this stage, imo Black Arthur has improvement to come on his Cup Trial run and I narrowly prefer him from It's My Turn, The Conglomerate, Ten Gun Salute and Mr Winsome, while neither Al Sahem nor Edict of Nantes can be ignored

King wrote: Hi PeterD

Thanks, also had it like that, yea Legal Eagle scratching did do a number on the 3year Olds.
I also feel this July is very open, been spot on the last 2 years with Power King and Conglomerate but I am scratching my head. Leaning towards older but I wonder how good Al Shem and Edict is.
Would they have beaten Gold Standard if it was in the Daily News?

King wrote: I also agree with you Mom, for me that makes it very difficult for the 3years old to win.
Because Gold Standard (52) got like 7.5kg form the most older horses in the Met, if you put Gold Standard as better then the other 2 meaning, Edict and Al Sahem would need to find a couple of lengths on horses like It's My Turn etc. BUT 3 Yearly Olds does improve fast.