Scottsville on Wednesday 06/09/2017

Just a reminder that I do not have time to properly study form, and watch the markets during the week - these are my wild guesses, posted here for me to follow from my tab during the day if I get the chance. So just my rough not well thought out fancies.

RACE 1 TOLTEC - Coy is a worthy favourite and cannot be written off, I would like to think the top MR, blinkers off and might just like the trip --should improve enough to win - but it's close.
RACE 2 LUCKY AT LAST - Perfectly placed, cannot be faulted -- naked truth and sherman worth a mention here for the minor's - but all will need a true pace.
RACE 3 QUERARI STAR - Such a poor field , anything could win it - my selection finds trouble in every race, and I cannot recommend on anything else other than any horse that finds so much trouble in it's races and still starts as the top MR - must just be looking for that one trouble free run
RACE 4 LEISURE TRIP - another poor field of contenders, other than moon princess -- take a chance with the appie allowance
RACE 5 SOLDIER’S BRIDE - coming out from a long layoff right into a race at which it has 100% in the money record.
RACE 6 LEDIMASPRINCESS- another off a long rest, well performed at C&D, nice win on poly last time out
RACE 7 KU DU TU - will be tested but looks capable
RACE 8 ROY’S AMBASSADOR (AUS) - stable mate is a perfect line horse, makes all appeal - but this one showing signs of something.

Lucky At Last - Through both Eye's Wide Open and Wideeyebushytail form , back at scottsville on grass over the mile looks very strong , and it looks like the only thing can beat him is a false pace.

I would be prepared to take a chance on KU DU TU following up.

Apart from the two mentioned - nothing else would qualify as a wager at this stage, Unless I saw specific indicators in the market

Would speculate on Spice Road Race 2 but at that draw 3/1 would be my threshold

You could make a similar comment to Trendy Guy Race 8

Fire Lucky at Last.....1/1 is generous. 1 draw and back over 1600m at Scottsville

Spice Road -Had a look at this one - 8 time maiden runner, twice unsuccessful at the distance , and reminds me of Querari Star , Slow away and giving lengths at the start almost every time it ran, coupled with the poor draw - highly likely to repeat that bad habit - but who knows what happens if it breaks cleanly for once in it's career?

That being said , we are trying to turn over a horse that finished just a few lengths short of two horses that are sitting at the top end of the season ratings , and looking very useful - 3 subsequent winners coming from the one run and two subsequent winners from the other, It's not just the number of subsequent winners - but the quality of the subsequent wins, and the opposition taken on - with Delpech up........

Don't worry about the odds on Lucky - since it's the stables only runner for the day --- and will be live.

Alas - never a certainty has ever set hoove on a race track......

Morning to all members and guests

Race 2
Before putting up my selection some comments to my fellow clan
If you not staking in the thousands, evens isn't odds that should make you sit up
I know most have a day job but punting is serious business and we should stop buying into the it's just a hobby excuse
When Peekay says back over 1600m it should actually be in spite of...which must bring us directly to the odds.The only thing in his favor is the company he meets.Not saying the Kotzen horse cant win but what are you going to do with it as it's not part of the p6

Anyway with my bank i have gone with Telekinesis to run into the money

Spot on Mydada --- it's all about value, and since normal in race factors account for a 20% variable - getting boxed in, not jumping, jockey falling off very few if any horse is ever a true even money chance. That being said - If i was looking to turn over a favourite there would be better opportunities in the rest of the card.

Some races you just watch for the entertainment value if you are not an exotics player. Since as you said 1/1's is not the sort of odds we are looking for.

All a Trainer can do is spot his horse in the best place for it to win, if something of the caliber of eye's wide open , and lesser brighteyedbushytail emerges from the field , that's the game of racing - which is why we often say that a maiden race is the most difficult, most open of all races to win - given that most Champions will compete in the maiden ranks.

Scope to improve into the next good thing on the racing scene , Itdawnedonme, Bonjour Baby, Particurlarly Mapmaker, may not have liked the poly - but their records already far from comparable to BEBT and EWO

So it looks like a rerun of the EWO race with Lucky At Last and Sherman perhaps being split by naked truth or one of the other - all down to the pace, and the tactics.

Yes Adams having said that i see the odds are into 83/100 from this am 91/100
It could be money after it's been cleared this morning but my point still stands

i Reckon vested interest is good EW value in the first.

pa 13% im making the chalk a banker and gambling the other two for R20

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