Turffontein Tuesday 12/9/17

PETERPAN wrote: Adams im trying to figure out some of your selections,u say u don't get involved but u do,Orapa,on gallops he dont have sprint form(mostly1400,1600) its a PP race so he dropped in rating from 89-74 against Africa Rising 98 in a grad plate race which i think was way stronger but the younger play the night & and snowboarding has higher ratings with low weights and more scope for improvement in my books. so i make them the 2 to beat but wont be surprise if Orapa upsets, yet u give joey piper?
race4 i can't figure how u still get TAPANZEE if 6 Alssahkra got the best form sud be 3rd time lucky on the turn wen clearly it was improving,plus top jock ,9 kings county looks progressive and looking for this disctance(2 winners from his form line)top stable, then 10 red revolution/ azzie/striker plus betting support sud ring alarm bells against a well tried horse like Tapanzee.RACE 5 your horse is scratch, and i make it a 2 horse race between 5 Diva Faustina (sud win) and 2 kings creek (a very big exacta horse) race 5 i agree with u but will add 2 Tandava Who i believe is looking for this trip plus got striker on board.this is my winner.but the social order can stay unbeaten.race7 the Lerena family can beat the Marwing family,but i make it a open race with a field for the pick 6, race 8 also a field leg looking for the upset here , for exotics i wou;d go light in the first 5 races then go 3 fields in last 3 races..

Everything you say is very valid.....to explain all of that i would need to write essays for each race....but its time to get seriouscand find where potential value lies. Nuerous maybes at short odds dont give me enough confidence to bet.

Bob Brogan wrote:

Liked the comments on snow in seattle hope that doesnt takexaway the value

Diva Faustina the banker of the day

Tricky card with some extremely well bred first timers.

R1 Candice Dawson runner does make some appeal with the money around, my preference will be for sweet Juliet and isn't a bad inclusion for a top 4 at around 8/10.

R2 Small competitive field and trickier then it looks. Joey Piper as well as Duke nukem make appeal for me.

R3 Like I said yesterday I won't be rushing to take evens about Boatswain. Of the exposed runners you have to include along with Sweet trial, however Power of Place as well as Sage rock are the money horses and I can see why. Both supposedly drawn nicely. The former related to the speedy one fine day whilst the latter related to the classy precursor. Took a chance on the early odds of the former at 10/1 and 12/10 a top 4 so nice to see some support there.

R4 Allsakhra the obvious inclusion on his cracking last effort. I however will be with the fit and improving Kings county. On the Dam side 1160 of his last run is far too short and ran on really strongly so at 3's may be the value here as he's bound to love the step up in trip.

R5 Nieuwenhuizen had a good Saturday and am inclined to side with him here but I really think Magner may have found the right race for King's creek finally. Has been kept to the inside track for months but how she's been running of late I feel may appreciate being back to more of a galloping track. No value at the odds but I think KC could finally get it right.

R6 Initially snapped up a bit of the 15/10 on Social order but the equipment changes does worry me a little and the drift in the market does smell a little of prep run for the Grand Heritage. Zouaves last effort was a cracking run and if the fav isn't quite ready Z could pick up the pieces. Roughie for inclusion is Tandava with the maestro aboard.

R7 Another very tricky race here where I think we could get a result. For me Master Boulder is the value. Style of running suggests up the straight may be more his game. On a line through Just as I said, Aramouse beat JAIS by 2.5 receiving 10kg, MB got beaten by JAIS by 4 when receiving only 4 kg. MB now receives 5 kg from A. So some 11kg swing in the weights for a some 6l beating. Yes weights over sprints don't mean a whole lot but 11kg I'd much rather be on the 12/1 about MB rather then the 7/2 about A.

R8 Another tricky end to the day and the betting suggests that at 5/1 bar. For me the value lies with the bottom weight Wottahottie. Supposedly nicely drawn and a bit of a weight turn around with a few in the race and at 10's and 16/10 a top 4 I think represented a bit of value. Gotta however include a bunch of runners here in order to watch the race in peace.

Tough competitive racing with hopefully a few decent dividends and some nice first timers to follow.

Play well.

Race 3 Sweet Trial 7/1..Huge Runner today..get on

To be honest Social Order will be better than its two runs....but i was not convinced regarding the quality of what it beat...wouldnt be surprised if it makes a hat trick. But neither would a poor showing surprise me. Alumites are light weight...increasing traction...akin to wearing running shoes and boots.....lack of traction a large contributory factor to joint issues as well

Last race Jim Cables places if not the next outing

Never be put off by track talk......watching tellytrack....group discussions etc tend to make it very hard not to get swept up in the euphoria of borse racing dreams

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Power Of Place is drifting ominously

PETERPAN wrote: Pirates, please educate me why would steel shoe make such a big difference to a performance /fitness in relation to no shoes and or shoes? is there an indicator. similar to a tongue tie or blinkers..

Asked a trainer once that about the difference between steel shoes and alumites. He told me it is like running in army boots compared to running shoes.

mydada wrote: Power Of Place is drifting ominously

Ellaborate?