Think we all remember the soft ride on Woodstock Fairy last time. I see its running tomorrow R3 against Very limited opposition. It has already shortened in the betting. Still some 2/1 with Interbet & Bettingworld. I think we should back it now !!
I think the Bass-Robinson/Domeyer combination could have a profitable day at the office tomorrow.
Played the patent :-
R3) Woodstock Fairy X (R4) Rokatedna X (R6) Dutch Philip
Woodstock Fairy, last time out was drawn 12/13 and turned for home in triple last place some 8 or 9 lengths off the leading horse. She was never going to win from that far back but ran on nicely. Tomorrow she has cracked a decent draw, so she would be a lot handier and should be the one they all have to beat.
Rokatenda, similar story, was second to last with 400m to go, made up lots of ground once in the clear, but the winner, Silver De Lange, was in front with 200m to go and not for the catching. Two things, back over the 2400m where he finished 1.25 lengths behind on both occassions, but i think the longer run-in at Durbanville will suit this horse. Just like Woodstock Fairy, not bumping anything special and should win this.
Dutch Philip, only concern is it's his first time at Durbanville and going round the turn. If he handles the turn, he'll go on and win this. He has won returning from a rest and more importantly, is well in against the money horse, Starflash.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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Rokatenda has had many chances to crack his maiden and now tries Durbanvile.
Rocket Countdown and Silva De Lange only had three runs before winning their maidens and my fancy Peter The Wailer fits that bill to a certain extent
He has had good sprint ups and last time finished well to be denied third by Silver De Lange so must have a good chance of winning this
I am not concerned that Leadman who finished second faded to run unplaced when favourite next time as they seem to be different types
Another encouraging point is that he fetched 300k so he is expected to win anytime soon
Theres been some support for him and the stable is in good form
I have Zanadu running in the Maiden 2000m @ 14:05. Here's what I can tell you :
Her last run was something of a disaster for two reasons :
1.) The distance was shortened from 2000m to 1900m.
2.) She missed the break by at least 5 lengths & finished just over 5 lengths behind the winner.
Here's what you should consider :
1.) She gets her 2000m
2.) Bernard Fayd'herbe rides. This should make the parade ring interesting! Read my post 'Jockey or Thug?' from just after the July.
3.) We have the long run in at Durbanville.
4.) I quote my trainer's words verbatim ; 'I think we have a very big chance'.
5.) My partner Sharon Holland certainly seems to have an above average chance - She has ownership interests in both Zanadu & One More Round.
6.) She has had another session at the pens since her last run.
7.) I believe she will be running in cheek pieces.
Please be aware that I do not punt my own horses.
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Comparing his two 1200m runs to Magical Wonderland's i feel Dutch Phillip has under performed in his last run and if putting it into lengths i would say about two.
The second negative for him to overcome is Parcival,not saying this is the winner but on the 28 January Parcival ran to COA in a time of 58.71 and Dutch Phillip his in 58.92 carrying level weights
The other bit of information that race day provided was the time for Wonderwall in a 1200m and was significantly inferior to the first race on the card won by Captain Swarowski with La Favourari ,Cuban Emerald and Rodney further back
Starflash also ran the same day trailing in sixth to Live Life in 71,85,superior to everything but Captain Swarovski
I reckon that is significant as Wonderwall was the runner-up to the favourite on debut
So to tie this whole thing up is the comparative times of Captain Swarowski on 29 October to Black Cat Back where CS scored 71,75 to BCB's 72,60
The going was very firm at Durbanville on Saturday with a pen of just 18. Apart from that, the course looking good. The 1000m and 1200m now start from a spur rather than on the bend itself, which makes life easier for those not drawn well. In addition, they can now sweep into the bend which has a positive camber, and can spread out across the track in the straight where the undulations out wide have been removed. Given that the straight is 600m and slightly uphill, there is more opportunity to come from off them. While the course is running fast, however, the front runners are still tough to peg back, and the bend remains quite tight so draws are still very important.
The jockeys and trainers that I spoke to are all pleased with the re-vamp. The only concern is that the new grass still needs time to put its roots down deep, and hence the care regarding irrigation.
Race 1: The favourite is Evelina. Her second run showed good improvement though still green. First time this bend but gets a good draw and strong jockey. The one to beat, but others to consider. The Widow's Club comes back from a rest and back down in trip, and if running well fresh could challenge. The very well bred Depeche also cracks a good draw and will relish the step up in trip. May still need this run. All of Madame Defarge, Spam Alert and Tally-Ho showed improvement second start and further improvement over the extra ground likely for all three.
We have Romantic Crusade running. Was dropped out from wide draw at Kenilworth last time, but we believe she wants this trip. Again a very wide draw to overcome. She is fit and well, and we expect a good run, but a tough ask from that draw.
Race 2: A big field and a competitive maiden. There are many lightly raced runners who could improve to challenge, although Zanzibarian and Orakal have the strongest exposed form. I would go wider than these two in the bipot. Our runner Lake Washington jumps from a wide draw again and should find this field too strong.
Race 3: Woodstock Fairy tops the boards and the ratings, but not necessarily a good thing. Although she has stamina on her dam side and was running on over the mile, she still has to prove that she is effective over 2000m. Destiny Duchess also tries the trip for the first time, and also has solid form. The Scorpion Queen race was quite a weak maiden, so these two should be too strong for One More Round and the other 4 that finished behind her in that race, but all of those should get the trip, and any could improve to upset. Not sure whether there will be a proper pace on in this contest.
Race 4:Rokatenda has been runner-up in 4 of his last 5, but he is an out and out stayer and can make his own pace if necessary. I will give him another chance and he is my banker for exotics
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The second half of the card consists of very competitive handicaps- not an easy card.
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