Do you agree with the handicapper

giving Zen Arcade a 91 ?

What was the line horse used ?

The second placed horse ran 1,1 lengths nearer to Get Henshaw rated an 80 and GH has not placed since albeit over distance

I dont have an opinion but just curious what you think

.....I don't think they are purely rating this horse on his maiden win.....what is Broadway Trip's MR one should ask...

Rhetorical or not a 92

....so the handicapper is of the opinion that Zen Arcade improved to win a maiden ....all though down in class was also down in trip... :huh:

This could take a while, but here's my view when it comes to merit rating and the handicapper.

It's better to err on the side of caution i.e. adjust the rating to less than what the official rating actually is.

The new rating is what the handicapper thinks the horse ran too. That answer will only be known after the next run.

Why not work out the average rating over the last three or four runs. Simple and quick exercise, hypothetically (with an official rating at 85) :-

1400m - mr 76 - finished (1) - lengths (1.00) - so double the finishing distance and add or subtract to the rating before the race - in this case make the rating 78

1600m - mr 80 - (4th) - 1.50 - adjust the rating to 77

1600m - 80 - (1st) - 0.50 - adjust the rating to 81

The average is 78.

Where there was a valid excuse for a poor run e.g. not striding out, did not act, or (say) a middle to distance stayer making a seasonal return in a sprint and finishing many lengths off etc, ignore those runs and look at the prior run.

Two things, the horse cannot be running (to) worse than the average, but neither has it achieved the new rating - that is an opinion and yet to be achieved.

The exercise is relative to the entire field and dilutes any "unfair" penalty.

If you have the time, give it a try, however always use the official rating as the base for the adjustment.

Have fun :pinch:

Roy's pyscho - line horse

....we may agree or disagree with the handicapper.....but when young maiden winners get lumped with a big number and they are not as good as MR.....they are screwed...will be interesting on how the Goose goes about this.....

The biggest flaw in the current MR System is that in a plate race, only the winner can be adjusted. Placed horses , no penalties. This is apparently, to entice Trainers to run in Plate races, for turnover sake. Bigger fields etc. But where this falls flat is that whilst the horse which places in a plate race cannot incur a penalty for that run, there us no rule that states that the Handicapper may not refer back to that run after the horse's next start.

So Zen Arcade's rating comes from his first run, which was a plate race. It is most disappointing that this race, where weights were determined by the purchase price of the horse and where only horses from the previous years 2yo Sale becomes the source of the rating.

When Zen Arcade won his maiden, 2nd time out, the line horse was Roy's Physco, as pointed out by Keniza999. Even though Roy's Physco had incurred a further penalty from his last run, a few days before and this was not shown in the card on the day, I still believe that Zen Arcade ran to a 85 or 86 in his maiden win.

But the comedy of the situation is that I still hear the powers that be and the handicappers bemoan the fact that
Plate races are not well supported.... IMHO, you would be crazy to run an improver in a plate race, because if you
run above your rating there and then run well or win next time, you could get additional penalties, like Zen Arcade did.

To me the only solution to the current situation is to can the Novice and Graduation plate races and implement my suggested handicapping guidelines/ceilings for winning horses , up to 3 time winners. Once a horse has run 3 times after a win , it can then be dropped but it may never exceed the limit until the next win. After its 3rd win, it then belongs to the system. That way the decent sorts will , at least, win their 3 races before being murdered. I know that my suggested system may not be to everyone's liking, but it is better than a small hirse getting a 91 after winning the maiden...
I will mail to Bob and ask him to post it here.

.....f@rk I only see now that Zen Arcade carried 2kg more than the winner in debut run....this explains the maths on the 1 point difference in current MR.....never checked the weights on the race...... as being a plate race thought all were weighted accordingly..... :side:

File attached with thanks from the goose

Thank you Louis for your compelling argument against the present system and a well laid out proposal for the future of the sport

Muhti
One more thing about the current system - in the plate race , the winner could ONLY get a maximum of 6 points , a cap on his rating. But, after winning the maiden, Zen Arcade gets his actual full rating of the Plate race.
Interesting for form students would be working out what Roy's Physco would have carried in this Sundays race....and if that reflects the margin of their last meeting fairly...