12/10/2017 vaal

Any winners?

Beggar's day and extremely difficult

R1 Tumbling Stream

R2 Corrido

R3 Think Of Magic

R4 Circle Of Latitude

R5 Timedtoperfection

R6 Ntoma

R7 Pilou

R8 Western Warrior

R9 Cedrus Libani

can we recoup our losses of last time with Huysteen?

P-i-l-o-u

Race 1: Singaswewin is the benchmark here, had issues at the start in last two and has run poorly, could win if you choose to discount those two runs , otherwise Toby Coates is probably next best – but runs out of a stable with less than 3% strike rate. You might want to take your chances with Tumbling Stream who needs to show some improvement but any horse that can get 7 lengths on a field over 800m has to be respected, could win this with a different tactic.

Race 2: Till Dawn , rested and could return fit, with improvement to come on the turf – looks the one to beat of the raced ones

Race 3: La Scala has shown the form to win here with excuses both starts, Huysteen was fancied on debut and also had excuses, obvious improvement to come. Witch King could contest if fresh, and outside edge is on a peak run.

Race 4: I narrowed this down to Circle Of Latitude and Saheera. Saheera probably has the most scope to improve over the extra trip. The biggest danger in the race is Purdey – i fancied this one last time out, when just staying on – perhaps will have more action in the finish with 200m less.

Race 5: Timed to perfection should hold off Memphis Belle and Prosperity

Race 6: Flowing Gown would look set to follow up.

Race 7: Shogun seems to be really taking it’s time to move up the form cycle – but looks set to win here, from Mans Inn and Pilou – only negative is that horse is going to need a hot pace , Man’s Inn is the only horse capable of providing that pace – but tends to run from off the pace has tried the front running tactics with some success so could set up the race for Shogun. If there isn’t a pace then Tommy Waterdevil could show up here.

Race 8: Highwayeightyfive is in a different league to this field , unfortunately will need a hot pace and there isn’t anything here that will turn on the heat. If the pace isn’t on Blue Diamond Road would benefit from that.

Race 9: One would have to Gamble on Genesis being good enough to follow up here, and it’s generally a weak field. One of the runners that could deny genesis is William Grace, has the potential and doesn’t mind Delpech putting up 0.5Kg overweight. The surprise package could arrive in the form of Petrichor, rested 742 days and quite capable. Downside there is that he too will need a fast pace , and not likely in this race.

Racing is very poor, I actually questioned myself as to why I wasted the time studying this card.

Race 1: Tumbling Stream
Race 2: Till Dawn
Race 3: La Scala
Race 4: Purdey
Race 5: Timed To Perfection
Race 6: Flowing Gown
Race 7: Shogun
Race 8: Highwayeightyfive
Race 9: Petrichor

If asked to commit to anyone of the above - would be very difficult.

Wiggle Wiggle...unless 7Lives or Square The Circle ...

PeeKay wrote: can we recoup our losses of last time with Huysteen?

i think so

post this before some of us nip of to work

two shrewdies for the second leg of the pot

Flipflash - good times and Ant is a bonus
Legend Seeker - lots to like in spite of the price

Sail for joy

Looks a card with a bit of value, finding it though is what's tricky.

First race I'm just going to watch and see whether there appears to be any bias draw wise. On Tuesday the inside looked a lot better then the outside and thus on this outside track that outside is now the inside. So I'm going to take a chance and say I think draws will be pretty fair all around and if anything maybe a slight preference for middle to outside draws.

R2 Corrido getting backed as if the result is known and this follows a similar tactic when supposed to make his debut last week. So one has to respect that sort of trend as Paul Peter seldom gets it wrong. So looks Another race which il watch for purposes of the above as C is drawn 2 and Lerena out wide so one should be able to gauge a bias if any if they stick to their barriers.

R3 Tricky start to the PA Huysteen makes appeal obviously but at 5/10 and with doubts over the possible bias I won't be getting involved. Greenwood Drive at 20's interests me. Definitely looking for further but On the breeding front his sire is a French g1 winner over 1600 and further, and on the dam side also has some class, so going a little further I think may be worth an e/w.

R4 Witch of the west made an impressive debut and I think the Vaal straight will suit. Circle of Latitude I'm not crazy about that formline so will be looking for more. Sahira made an impressive debut and for me is the value around 5's. Fairly strong formline from her debut and I think will go very close with Witch of the west.

R5 Celtic lady and Timed to perfection are the selections for the pa but potential for a surprise here.

R6 Handicapper been very kind to teenage dream. Last run 2000 maybe too far and run before that wide draw over the 1700. For those two performances has dropped 11 points thus 5.5kg's. The run that interests me is behind Cape Infanta when was drawn completely on the wrong side with the bias that day. 7/1 and gavin aboard I think is a decent bet. Flip flash and Curbstone shuffle the dangers.

R7 Don't think it is as cut and dry as the betting reads, potential for results with Mans inn, Street flyer and Refuge.

R8 Captain Chips from Sail for joy and Lake kinneret/Darkest hour.

R9 Tricky race, initially Neuf de Pape made appeal, but on a line through Rambo, Majestic bay at 16's makes some decent appeal. Lost the race at the start with the apple on lto but Gunther back aboard and if able to jump on terms and the outside draws okay, then I feel may be the value. By no means a reliable sort but can't be left out of any perms as has come down massively in the ratings. Cedrus and Devils peak should be sufficient back up for the pa.

My main play
R4-10 Saheera Place
R6-2 Teenage dream place
R9 -4 Majestic bay Place.
10/1
And for the greedy add greenwood drive for around 30's.

All the best.

Deeno wrote:

PeeKay wrote: can we recoup our losses of last time with Huysteen?

i think so

I have doubles running onto this from yesterday. So here's hoping

Thanks Colin for a comprehensive summary as usual - I'm mostly on agreement (run for the hills) but the possible draw bias (or not) could upset many predictions today on a very tough card imo

R1: Watch and perhaps learn

R2: Obviously the Peter runner needs to be respected with Till Dawn - Yakeen like the favorite could be anything while the only other runner quoted lower than 33's is Island View, who could feature if ready after a break; was interested in Judd's Rocket, but betting suggests that this is a 'look and see' run

R3: Huyssteen does not seems to have a lot of competition; on form only Black Devon could provide some opposition; first timer Think of Magic is finding some betting support and Hyper Jet could surprise over the extra 200m imo

R4: The younger fillies should fight this out; on a line through Distant Call, Saheera could hold Witch of the West, but on the other hand Distant Call should have improved in her 2nd start when she beat WotW, so probably not much between them; those two come out of stronger form lines than Circle of Latitude imo, who could fight out 3rd with Inthepurplerain

R5: I think today will be Celtic Lady's day, she has been knocking at the door and looks overdue for her next win; imo the main danger is Prosperity - will be out in front, but I think CL will run her down; Memphis Belle also looks useful and is one of quite a few that could take advantage should CL or P not bring their 'A' game

R6: A bit of a nightmare; I agree that Teenage Dream is probably the one to beat; if Charter Jet repeats her last effort, she could go close again and at the bottom of the weights to roughies to consider are Ntoma and Queenie, although both appear better over shorter

R7: Competitive handicap, Well Connected has the most scope and National Key can upset at best; obviously Pilou, Shogun and Tommy Waterdevil are the form runners

R8: Captain Chips likes this course and distance and should go close, but the other 3 in the betting is also very much alive; can't see anything else

R9: Tough race to close; I think Devil's Peak provides nice value at the odds

After my unsuccessful attempt at a P6 on Tuesday, let's try a BP today: (R130 for 10%)

5,8,14
5,9,14
9,10,13
6,11
2,5,7,8,9,14
1,4,5,8