Final Field Grade 2 Fillies

bayern wrote:

naresh wrote:

bayern wrote:

pirates wrote:

bayern wrote: Bass-Robinson will win both the Cape Classic (Dutch Phillip) and Western Cape Fillies Championship (Magical Wonderland). Just remember you read it here first.

dutch philip has an impossible task with these weight conditions ..if he wins will be odds on to win the cape guineas

Pirates, being the only 4 time winner in the field, he's not badly out at the weights. Admittedly all the wins have been up to 1200m. In the two defeats, albeit over the 1000m, he has been running on smartly. The real question is whether he stays the distance. My humble opinion, his style of running suggests he will get it comfortably even though he is conceding chunks of weight all-round.

Gimmethegreenlight conceded 3.5kgs to Depardiu and could not win in the very same race, the Cape Classic. Dutch Philip sire, What A Winter, conceded 3kgs to Solo Traveller in the same race and could not win but Solo Traveller was no slouch. What A Winter though did win the Selangor over 1600m in his next start. Good horses in this race have been caught out by the weight. Adams says weight is no issue....

A few things - I'm happy Adam agrees weight is not an issue, hopefully for both Feature races.

Bass-Robinson proved weight wasn't an issue in the Vodacom July.

Sorry to have hijacked the thread by mentioning the Cape Classic, i have declared my Feature race double, what does everyone else fancy as a matter of interest?

marineresco won a handicap and carried the correct weight but dutch philip is not running in a handicap ..its chalk and cheese the conditions and weight structure of the 2 races

pirates wrote:

bayern wrote:

naresh wrote:

bayern wrote:

pirates wrote:

bayern wrote: Bass-Robinson will win both the Cape Classic (Dutch Phillip) and Western Cape Fillies Championship (Magical Wonderland). Just remember you read it here first.

dutch philip has an impossible task with these weight conditions ..if he wins will be odds on to win the cape guineas

Pirates, being the only 4 time winner in the field, he's not badly out at the weights. Admittedly all the wins have been up to 1200m. In the two defeats, albeit over the 1000m, he has been running on smartly. The real question is whether he stays the distance. My humble opinion, his style of running suggests he will get it comfortably even though he is conceding chunks of weight all-round.

Gimmethegreenlight conceded 3.5kgs to Depardiu and could not win in the very same race, the Cape Classic. Dutch Philip sire, What A Winter, conceded 3kgs to Solo Traveller in the same race and could not win but Solo Traveller was no slouch. What A Winter though did win the Selangor over 1600m in his next start. Good horses in this race have been caught out by the weight. Adams says weight is no issue....

A few things - I'm happy Adam agrees weight is not an issue, hopefully for both Feature races.

Bass-Robinson proved weight wasn't an issue in the Vodacom July.

Sorry to have hijacked the thread by mentioning the Cape Classic, i have declared my Feature race double, what does everyone else fancy as a matter of interest?

marineresco won a handicap and carried the correct weight but dutch philip is not running in a handicap ..its chalk and cheese the conditions and weight structure of the 2 races

You a 100% correct regards Marineresco, what was the bookies and Joe Public's perception regards the horse carrying that weight. From time to time a horse will defy the odds, just saying.

I am totally not good at merit ratings but will it be true to say that Meet The Logans had to have carried more then 7 kgs less then Champenois to have beaten her
and that is 14 points ?

Its a bit more complicated than that - There is the Handicapper and then there is your handicap . I will have to look to see , The handicaper has CHAMPENOIS an 86MR on that win I rated the race a 81 , I am not sure what I rated MTL on that run . These are still young horses and as they race you will be able to work out whether you agree or do not agree with the handicapper. This is an advantage in Handicap races , but no perfect science .

Great thread guys

mydada wrote: I am totally not good at merit ratings but will it be true to say that Meet The Logans had to have carried more then 7 kgs less then Champenois to have beaten her
and that is 14 points ?

According to my understanding it got to do drag effect of weight. Over 1200m a 3.5 length beating equals to 4.5kgs according to most charts. This does not take into account if the horse was easing up or any other factors.

thank you DHT and if you do look it up she was ,82 seconds slower then Billy Silver's which is a whole lot closer then the earlier comparisions i made with MW,although their is a lot one must still factor in

Drier feels Lady In Black will have her work cut out from a wide draw.

Candice Bass-Robinsontrained unbeaten filly Magical Wonderland looked a superstar in the making when storming home despite the dual impediments of 61kg and plenty of trouble in the running at Durbanville recently.
She steps up to Graded company and beyond sprint distances for the first time in the Grade 2 Western Cape Fillies Championship on Saturday, but has Grade 1 winner written all over her and is expected to remain undefeated come 5.20pm on Saturday.

“She is highly talented, doing very well, and will be a big runner,” was the bullish comment from her usually cautious conditioner, who also confirmed that if she handles the trip, this daughter of What A Winter will be aimed at the Grade 1 WSB Fillies Guineas.

Dennis Drier’s star, Lady In Black, is also yet to taste defeat, and won the Grade 1 Thekwini Stakes in good style at the end of July. She receives a 2kg penalty in this event due to that win, and jumps from a very wide gate as she negotiates a left-handed turn for the first time. Cream always rises to the top but she may struggle to get the better of the Bass-Robinson-trained filly on this occasion, given all of those negatives.

“She is very well in herself but will need plenty of luck in running from that draw,” was the wry comment from her trainer.
“Champenois has a good draw and top rider and will run very well. Tsessebe is a game little filly but is drawn worst of all and MJ Byleveld will have to perform miracles,” said Drier of his other entries. Sean Tarry’s Grade 2 winner Desert Rhythm is highly consistent, and is 1kg better off with Lady In Black for a two length reverse after not finding a clear passage in the Thekwini.
“She may need it slightly but will be finishing well. This is a prep for the Fillies Guineas,” was the cautious assessment off the champion trainer.

Nice thread - imo IF Magical Wonderland stays, she wins, if not it is wide open; in the Cape Classic, I can not see any of the males giving the filly weight and a beating