Fairview Algoa Cup Day
- Adams
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Re: Fairview Algoa Cup Day
7 years 7 months ago - 7 years 7 months ago
I guess there are ways to look at weight......but generally without such a huge penalty Easy Street was always looking to be the obvious winner.
On this run behind easy Street ---- and almost 6Kg less than easy Street --- that had to be enough to put Staburst Galaxy ahead of Easy Street
and I wasn't really looking for any other benchmark other than easy street - which imo was all we had to beat!
(3) 17.04.21 F 434 G Pnncl 3.08500000000001 1200 Murray C 59.5 (93) 0.875 3.96000000000001 2 2 Easy Street 54.0 67.74 68.27 11/2 61/10 105
The best I could find for Our Destiny was the last run -- and that needed a lot of collateral, to try and get a line through easy Street ---- Of course Our Destiny was extremely well weighted. But when comparing the weight advantages against actual performances - Put Galaxy Starburst just ahead of Our Destiny.
I think one oversight here is taking the handicappers assigned MR as being a cast in stone measure of a horses ability - which is often wrong, and at best an estimate. There is no substitute for actual collateral performance at given weights - when trying to assess the impact of weight.
The flip side being that weight is irrelevant, the top weight just had a bad day and the next best horse won
On this run behind easy Street ---- and almost 6Kg less than easy Street --- that had to be enough to put Staburst Galaxy ahead of Easy Street
and I wasn't really looking for any other benchmark other than easy street - which imo was all we had to beat!
(3) 17.04.21 F 434 G Pnncl 3.08500000000001 1200 Murray C 59.5 (93) 0.875 3.96000000000001 2 2 Easy Street 54.0 67.74 68.27 11/2 61/10 105
The best I could find for Our Destiny was the last run -- and that needed a lot of collateral, to try and get a line through easy Street ---- Of course Our Destiny was extremely well weighted. But when comparing the weight advantages against actual performances - Put Galaxy Starburst just ahead of Our Destiny.
I think one oversight here is taking the handicappers assigned MR as being a cast in stone measure of a horses ability - which is often wrong, and at best an estimate. There is no substitute for actual collateral performance at given weights - when trying to assess the impact of weight.
The flip side being that weight is irrelevant, the top weight just had a bad day and the next best horse won

Last edit: 7 years 7 months ago by Adams.
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- mydada
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- durbs
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Re: Fairview Algoa Cup Day
7 years 7 months ago
Well the way you looked at it you got the winner so I suppose that's all that matters.And as for form results in PE I think you mistaken there.It's a hard place to find winners just look at the results today.13-1,28-10,16-1,11-1 and 13-1 with the 5-10 favorite beaten out the first two.That doesn't look like form results to me.
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- Bob Brogan
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Re: Fairview Algoa Cup Day
7 years 7 months ago
Great hear an ABC alias as one of the sponsers

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- Adams
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Re: Fairview Algoa Cup Day
7 years 7 months ago
Absolutely not surprised to find hithimagainchuck flat - in fact i absolutely expected that!
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- Adams
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Re: Fairview Algoa Cup Day
7 years 7 months agodurbs wrote: Well the way you looked at it you got the winner so I suppose that's all that matters.And as for form results in PE I think you mistaken there.It's a hard place to find winners just look at the results today.13-1,28-10,16-1,11-1 and 13-1 with the 5-10 favorite beaten out the first two.That doesn't look like form results to me.
Actually I though Joking would beat it, but as said that was more hope than science
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- Sammy Silver
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Re: Fairview Algoa Cup Day
7 years 7 months agoAdams wrote: Race 1: There is a lot of confidence around Pick Again , after a pleasing run on the polytrack – switches back to turf hoping the surface switch has done the trick – get’s blinkers this time. If that inspires confidence in Pick Again then Deago Deluxe must be equally fancied , having put up a better run than Pick Again on the poly and switching to turf. War Of Roses signalled well being in last and returns to best effort when behind butterfly spirit. Imo all three have already bolted and it might be expecting too much for either of them to show further improvement , without a few more runs. Cristian is hard to assess – Ran well over the mile, a trip at which it was well supported and expected to do well, so the switch back to 1000m is a double edged sword – could be good, could be bad. Lurking in the wings is Bella Isle – capable of better than her runs behind pepper oak and wise whisper – gets Blinkers today. - from this the race does not present itself as a good wagering platform. Any of the top 4 could show further improvement, or blinkers could assist Bella Isle – plenty of options here - with storyfields also in contention with some luck off run behind Mr Hansen.
Race 2: If talk is to be believed , there is only one horse in the race – Saltoro Ridge. Ran on nicely over 1400m last , losing a length– should enjoy the extra 200m amongst weaker competition. There is still some expectation around Electro Cat and Green Field. haven’t really seen much to like about them myself– but Greenfields did contest the million rand sales race and both of these could potentially improve here - with Green Field having been rested since that race.
Race 3: Yet another race with a whole lot of contenders – confidence high amongst all of Arctic Green, Lady Diddeo, Curved Light – excitement around Prof’s Pet and Azusa also confident. - Big Plunge on Sockittome as well. Personally i was ready to have a go on Lady Diddeo last out – but it was scratched – first run for Greef and has the goods to deliver – Not sure sockittome can show yet more improvement so soon, Curved Light comes off a rest and will be right in the firing line, Prof’s Pet raced handy last out, and faded away – should be better for the run, and should hold Curved Light on that. Great Sound lurking – out of sorts for a long time now. Azusa and Seattle Splendour also to be considered. Another weak wagering oppurtunity – would be leaning to Lady Diddeo with Prof’s Pet a danger.
Race 4: A nice competitive race. Obvious starting point is Our Destiny, strongly supported in the first run for the stable and will have a say here at the weight. At this track – the one to beat has to be Easy Street – Queen of the Sprints here but will definitely feel this weight. Beataboutthebush has some scope . It’s not hard to see the heavy weight on Easy Street forcing her to concede a turnaround with Galaxy Starburst. Joking – up and coming Three Year Old – will relish this light weight. - Joking is probably best placed to benfit from this weight, improve and beat the older mares – Galaxy Starburst should just get the better of Easy Street this time, and Our Destiny will be in contention at the finish with Easy Street filling the minors. Not willing to wager here – as it includes a good measure of faith in weight handicapping. Pressed – Joking to win from Galaxy Starburst.
Race 5: Hithimagain Chuck had a superb run last time out, and rightly starts favourite here – but there is some weakness in having to travel, and hold the horse together off it’s run from just 18 days ago. - although he seems to be well. This weakness would let For Luck Sake in the door , along with Battle Creek. One that i will be watching with interest is Dorman, was impressive in beating Western Officer – and is rested. This one could certainly pop up here with improvement. Not a lot of confidence so might need the run?
Race 6: Talk of the Town is Woljayrine and he’s certainly fit and well, and more than capable. A big surprise could arrive in the form of Plano – just below big race material over the 1800m – just being held at bay by Platinum Prince – beating Liquid Dynamite in a race that produced three subsequent wins, and now comes down to 1400m – many horses that do well at 1800m will do as well at 1400m – There might be some value in Plano here.
Race 7: Typical big race – no one prepared to get too confident about the runners. Except Masters Eye, and Ollivander with their eye’s set on this race. It should be very hard to oppose Platinum Prince in this race – but there are some pretenders to the throne. Ollivander will improve at this trip – looking at the 8 length run behind Edict Of Nante’s, and is in good shape. Road to Indy has some potential with best work on the Polytrack, but can run on the grass as well. Eternal Jet is in the form of his life, and could relish this sort of trip – Platinum Prince however looks the part here.
Race 8: A lot of attention around Nabisco here, and some interest around It’s Gonna Rain, Mark’s Glory and Captain Disko. Tin Soldier may have to be kept together and race on any threads of condition left from last time out. Nabisco is well and should have a lot to say here. Captains Disko is also very well, and must contest this. Mambo Tango won nicely last time out but my feeling always been that one should be sprinting – could make it though with some speed on a fast downhill track. Apollo’s Gift also well and on a peak run. On Pure Condition Captain Disko and Apollo’s Gift must be expected to put in cracking effforts. The 6Y Old Consaonance could also have a say here. Emerald Island also on the fringe. Nabisco in top form and will be strong over the extra.
Race 9: Initial contenders are PreciousPansy, Excellent, Queen Justine and Cha Cha Chorizo. Queen Justine is a solid performer at this trip and will take some beating. Precious Pansy may improve over the extra trip and could be a force , with Excellent definitely in contention – Cha Cha Chorizo hasn’t really shown anything on the track, so must be doing some good work at hom? I get the Sense that Precious Pansy is quite Special, and may be able to get the better of the older Queen Justine – but could perhaps go either way.
Summary, after much study, a race card for the purist gambler. There isn’t really anything that moves me to place a bet on the outcome. -- Enjoy
Top class summaries. I hope you getting the lot!!!
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- Sammy Silver
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Re: Fairview Algoa Cup Day
7 years 7 months ago
Woljayrine in Race 6 is a racing certainty and the banker bet today!!!
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- Adams
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Re: Fairview Algoa Cup Day
7 years 7 months agoSammy Silver wrote: Woljayrine in Race 6 is a racing certainty and the banker bet today!!!
Well done Sammy Silver - was my shortest summary of the day, as there wasn't really much to think about there!
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- Dark Horse Thoroughbreds
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Re: Fairview Algoa Cup Day
7 years 7 months ago - 7 years 7 months agoPeterD wrote: Woljayrine in the 6th a penalty kick
Well Done Peter D
Was always going to be a penalty kick - Pity the double with OUR DESTINY did not come through . She is much better than that . You cant beat Live Life and the Boys at Scottsville and then run a shocker like that.
Last edit: 7 years 7 months ago by Dark Horse Thoroughbreds.
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- gregorypillay123
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