Turffontein Saturday - Summer cup

As much as it's not a popular message - the top graded races are not good platforms for wagering.

As in any sport -- the triangle of equine ability gets very narrow, the higher the quality of race. There is every now and again one individual that will dominate it's peers - but mostly horses of pretty evenly matched skill line up in these types of races. They will take turns at beating one another on any given day.

Such races come down to which of the runners are best suited to the conditions of the race, the trip, the draw, the weight and plenty of luck in running.

As such these events are more for the purist, the entertainment and exhilaration of the big event, the big wins and the stories behind the winners.

Bob Brogan wrote:

Never been a follower of this filly, but I really fancy her tomorrow. I dont know how her price can be right at the bottom of the boards.

I see its going to be a rainy affair tomorrow as well... Caution on the faves.

Interesting Sold -

Owner/Colour Changes

Rc 6 No 6 Ideal Secret : Mr M H Maingard - Royal blue, white sash, scarlet sleeves, white cap (SWE)

If it is wet, look no further then Bezanova in the 10th e/w to recoup.

R1 THRU THIC AND THIN **
R2 SQUARE THE CIRCLE ***
R3 WRECKING BALL *
R4 SAN FERMIN ***
R5 GRADUATION DAY **
R6 PIETRO MASCAGNI **
R7 SOCIAL ORDER **
R8 NOTHER RUSSIA ***
R9 GONE BABY GONE *
R10 HIDDEN AGENDA *
R11 EDISON **
R12 SAILOR GIRL *

You've read the rest

As mentioned by many, not a day to get too involved as most races are very competitive with the shotgun approach being used by the big stables. The Tarry yard has had a slightly better week, but all his runners failed again on Thursday, so by no means can be seen as coming into Saturday with all guns blazing, while the de Kock yard after cleaning up in the previous weeks, did not have the greatest week; all in all pretty much a guessing game as to who will be the ‘big gun’ come Saturday

R1: Imo being drawn on the outside over this straight is a definite advantage (but this may change if the track is soft); for me Amajory at the price is a big runner and she comes out of a close second in a fast run race and it also does not hurt that Secret Potion came out to win from behind her; Ensemble obvious danger and only the inside draw made me put her behind Amajory; if the going turns up soft, Carmelita may also provide some stiff competition – drawn on the outside as well and is the only one who has shown that she does not mind soft going; Balistrade, Western Shamrock and Thru Thic and Thin imo have more to do but may fight out the minor places – unless one of the first timers are good enough

R2: Square the Circle and Schippers the obvious two, but this is a 150k maiden and any of the first timers could have been prepared specifically for this; watch the betting closer to the off

R3: Bit of a nightmare start to the PA which could be complicated even more should the track come up soft; Spring Wonder has good form this track and trip, outside draw and could be good enough to run into the first 3, despite being given a 6 point penalty for her last win – however she has not really shown that she handles the wet. MyFunnyValentine has run close to SW, but also has had one dreadful run in the wet (although that was over 1450, which may have been too far). Wrecking Ball (better 1000 ?) at least had 2 good runs in soft conditions so has to go in the PA imo; after those it looks wide open as all of Arissa, My Friend Lee and La Bella Mia have shown a liking to a softer track; Varsity Girl probably slightly better than rated and could also feature despite being out at the weights on official ratings.

R4: The Gr3 Fillies Mile and Folk Dance has a lot going for her and in a competitive P6 could be a banker; main danger and an inclusion for me (just in case FD does not see out the tough Turffontein 1600) is Cashel Palace – on a line through La Bastide, not too much between CP and FD, and stranger things have happened; San Fermin has a big reputation on her effortless maiden win, and based on the stable’s confidence can’t be ignored either. Witch of the West and Mar del Sur (much better than last run) are others who could upset if the top 3 fails, while Mrs O is the only filly who has shown a preference for soft conditions so could be worth including in bigger perms should the going come up soft.

R5: Very competitive renewal of the Merchants; Bull Valley obvious chance but in a handicap has to give weight away to the rest of the field which will not be easy against some very talented sprinters; in his favour could be that he ran well in soft condition the one time he encountered them; Graduation Day probably better on good ground and - he receives 7 kgs from BV, which should prove decisive imo; then Rivarine has some great form over the track and trip and is weighted to get very close to GD (but has had one poorish effort in the soft); the 3 yr Naafer beat BV last time and is now better off at the weights (inside draw may prove a disadvantage) and then we have the very capable Talktothestars who has a chance as well

R6: Cracking race which will go a long way to establish the pecking order of the Gauteng (and KZN ?) 3 yr old males; after an impressive display last time Big Bear looks the right one; however he has to go 200m further and does not have the greatest draw; still he seems to have the measure of quite a few of his opponents; the unknown quantity is Pietro Mascagni and it is anyone’s guess how good he actually is and which of the de Kock runners are favoured by the stable – Like a Panther obviously very capable but has a wide draw and may be better over further; Ideal Secret is weighted to get close to BB on their run in September and the unfashionably bred Seerite was not too far behind IS last time and may have more improvement to come in only his 3rd start; Flying Free better than his last run and is best in on ratings, but a wide draw is not ideal and the KZN visitor Monks Hood could be worth including on a soft track as he won his maiden by more than 7 lengths in yielding conditions

R7: The big one; obviously a real tough field where many have chances; so although the runners towards the top of the boards cannot be ignored, the value imo lies towards the middle of the betting boards; Master Sabina won it last year, nothing much (except the draw) between him and Master Switch, so 40/1 is a huge price imo, probably because the stable seems to have a preference for Wind Chill, who imo must have the best chance of the more fancied runners; the Soma stable has come into form recently, so if I had to stick my neck out, I’d say that both his runners will be in the quartet. Master Switch also very good value at 20’s; Orchid Island not without a chance, but imo will have her work cut out to finish in front of Wind Chill. Abashiri not to be ignored either, but soft going may not be ideal and I think he will be coming from off them and will therefore have to rely on the right gaps opening and luck in running. At the risk of that yellow stuff, the ones that I do not see featuring are New Predator (2000 surely too far), Fort Ember (tough task at the weights imo) Mac de Lago (how he made it into the race on recent form is a mystery to me) and Hermoso Mundo (2000 too short)

R8: The Ipi Tombe Challenge probably provides what most punters will rely on as their P6 banker on the day; Nother Russia has never finished further back than 3rd and from a good draw looks very hard to beat; also soft ground will not be a problem for her; she should hold Belle Sonata and while Secret Star came close to her last time, (and at the weights looks to have a chance of turning the tables) NR needed that run and should improve plenty on that; for me the danger is Bi Pot; she has (unfairly imo as she ran less than ½ a length behind Orchid Island at level weights) not made the final field for the Summer Cup, but it may be a blessing in disguise as she does seem very capable over 1600 and will be cherry ripe – bearing in mind that her worst run (which she probably needed a lot) was on soft ground; She’s a Giver is well weighted, but 1400 seems her best trip; Tahini imo is much better on the inside track, while Guns and Roses and Sylvan on Fire face much stronger here

R9: Tough close to the P6; Fortissima won this race last year in soft conditions; so at least she stays and would relish the possible wet conditions; against her is that she has a whole lot more pudding to carry and has to give weight away to the whole field bar Cool Chardonnay; Save the Rhino very disappointing last time, and suffers from breathing issues, he does come in off a handy weight though and will also be favoured if the ground comes up soft; the mare Bondi Blue gives the impression that the marathon trip will be up her ally and off a very handy weight is another to consider; those would be my top 3, but not many that can be completely disregarded

R10: My first 3 in no particular order are Irish Pride, Bezanova and Kings Archer

R11: Tough race – I give up

R12: Not sure about La Linea, that being said, none of the others appeal to me, I’ll just watch

For the P6, I think one is sort of forced to go with Nother Russia, due to the open nature of the other races. Taking the view that there will be rain around, I think the following could give you a run for your money at least:
1,2,3,4
1,7,13
2,3,6,7,8,11,16
2,3,4,5,8,9,10
1
2,8,12

Enjoy

Any weather update for turffontein?
Pouring in the west rand.

All the best Frado- Thanks for the time spent - Did have a litle chuckle with the "and the unfashionably bred Seerite " Dont forget Curve Ball won the Dingaans for Charles Laird

Must admit you have got me worried about the 2nd Race - Well picked up with the Stakes + R20k RA - Now the Favourite doesnt look home and hosed as I thought, The only first timer I can see maybe upsetting has had no support .

6 LEFT HOOK = Half Brother to Hamies Hooker
or
BRIGHT BLESSED DAY
Half Brother to Chave De Oura and the very expensive yearling Trees Of Green

So you put the cat amoungst the pigeons with me and this Favourite

Race 1 – Ensemble 3/1, Amajory 8/1


Nice tricky maiden to start things off. I thought Ensemble had a nice effort behind the highly rated Shufoog and she was quite some way ahead of the 3rd placed horse. She should go well here but an inside draw does not seem ideal which might bring others into contention.

Amajory was possibly a little unlucky to lose LTO. But she gets another chance here, Striker stays with her and she’s drawn on the outside which is usually the place to be – must have a good chance.


Race 2 – Schippers 7/2

Square the circle will be tough to beat but at 8/10 he’s not at a backable price for me. Schippers has went very close in her two starts and the blinkers may just eek out the improvement needed.


Race 3 – MyFunnyValentine 8/1, Varsity Girl 18/1


Myfunnyvalentine is always thereabouts and is quite better off with Spring Wonder on the 12 August run. This is her 3rd run after rest so will be at her peak now. Off 53kg, she should be in the mix.

I thought Varsity Girl’s run behind Via Settle was a very good one. I think 1450m is pushing her slightly at this stage and she only faded late on that day. Horses like Silver Thursday and Witch of the West only passed her late on and those are good sorts. Drop back to the sprints should favour her and should have put a bold showing here.


Race 4 – San Fermin 4/1


Loved her acceleration in winning her maiden. She won that in a manner of a very good horse and it was pleasing to see the Azzie stable think so highly of her. They seem to think she’s ready for this and they already rate her as one of the better fillies they’ve trained. Big words.
I think the main dangers are Folk Dance and Witch of the West who ran on well LTO. I’m a big fan of Folk Dance myself and I’ve actually backed her every time since her 2nd start so it is hard to go against her but I’ll be throwing a saver on her closer to race time.


Race 5 – Bull Valley 9/2, The Thinker 20/1, Romi’s Boy 25/1


Bull Valley is without a doubt the best sprinter in the country. His record last season proved it and I thought his comeback was a cracking effort. We know he’s not the soundest so there’s always the worry of a below par run looming but he’s all class. He should be right there at the finish.

The Thinker’s been improving rapidly and he ended up on the wrong side LTO and still produced a powerful finish. Nice weight and drawn on the right side this time brings him into this.

Romi’s Boy is something of a frustrating horse as he has group potential but never seems to produce when it matters. However, back to his favoured sprints coupled with blinkers could see him outrun his odds.


Race 6 – Pietro Mascagni 9/1, Monks Hood 10/1


Pietro Mascagni showed real guts to get up on his debut over a trip far too short. The yard rate him and this will be his sort of trip. This race might come too soon but I thought the opening price of 9/1 was worth a dabble. Good draw will make things easier.

Monks Hood is better over this trip and slightly softer conditions will help him tomorrow. 3rd run after rest and if he produces a run as the one in the GR1 then he has to have a chance here. Not the worst of draws either as on that occasion.

I think Seerite is also worth a little bet @ 20/1



Race 7 – Abashiri 8/1 - 11/1, French Navy 15/1 - 18/1, Social Order 66/1


I hope Abba can follow in the footsteps of LTK and win the Summer Cup. I loved his comeback run and LTO was just a gallop for him. Peak Abashiri should come to the course tomorrow and he’ll run his best race. Not worried about the draw as he likes to race off him a bit and eat up the ground with that stride of his.

French Navy ran a cracker in the Charity Mile and showed he’s not done just yet. He’s taken on the best of the best and beaten some really good fields. IMO he carries a very competitive weight and I think he’ll go very close if he doesn’t have to much to do. He has run 3rd in this remember from a hopeless position so I hope he’s not kept too far back turning for home.

Got my ticket on Social Order just before his dismal effort on the inside course but there were legitimate excuses for that and the real horse appeared in the charity mile. Cracking effort and seemed to really take off in the closing stages. Tarry thinks he’s looking for the trip and he does rate him. Off 52kgs, he has to be a massive contender.


Race 8 – Probably a no bet race for me. Nother Russia the class of course and will win if at her best but a bit short at 11/10. Secret Star, Al Danza and Guns and Roses all dangers.

Race 9 – No bet for me


Race 10 – Doosra 3/1, Irish Pride 15/2


Doosra had a cracking last effort where he just failed to collar Kings Archer and should be fitter now. Goes well at the Standside and should be very competitive.

Irish Pride’s won me a few big ones in the past so I was happy to see him return to a bit of form in the charity mile. Has been dropping to a more competitive rating and this field is much easier for him. Good chance. Better draw this time around too.


Race 11 and 12 – Definitely won’t be watching the racing at this point! :woohoo:

MOMF sorry to say but no more 4/1 San Fermin now 15/10 and Pietro Mascagni now 5/1.