Turffontein Saturday - Summer cup

It is a beautiful morning. A good day for punting at the Big T.

manwatweet wrote: It is a beautiful morning. A good day for punting at the Big T.

Thanks, guess the state of the going is what we all want to know next.

bayern wrote:

manwatweet wrote: It is a beautiful morning. A good day for punting at the Big T.

Thanks, guess the state of the going is what we all want to know next.

Had 4 - 5 hours rain last night, but cleared before 23:00. Should be soft........... but think they will run.

Overcast now and cold.

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The big day is here --- hope you all have fun. Limit your betting in the big races to fun/interest bets -- and have a wonderful day.

Tabgold Site -- probably be updated later?

General Information
Item Comment
Weather @08h00 Cloudy 60 % ch.of T/Storms. 8-18 degs. 11kph NE Cross/Tail wind
Rainfall Last 24 Hours Nil
Rainfall Last 7 Days 9.5mm
Irrigation Last 24 Hours Nil
Irrigation Last 7 Days 30mm
Penetrometer Reading 21
Track Condition Good
False Rail Zero on back straight to 6.5m on the bend with a 6.5m spur at the 700m mark.

Reckless wrote:

bayern wrote: Morning All

What's the weather doing in Johannesburg this morning/today, are we racing?

Clear skies, high of 18 expected but I think it will be more.....chance of rain expected in the afternoon

Okay those clear skies went for a ball of shit right now :huh: ....overcast and cold

Card changes on the day, morning of a race are usually a good sign of intent --- although not in this class of race where every runner is intent on winning. however some important ones:

Jockey Changes

7 6 Fort Ember G Wrogemann
8 7 Bi Pot A Delpech

Equipment Changes

7 16 Girl On The Run Blinkers On
7 19 Social Order Tongue Tie On


ADAMS – WEIGHT ADJUSTED SUMMER CUP RATINGS

MASTER SABINA 45
GIRL ON THE RUN 38
HERMOSO MUNDO 36.5
ORCHID ISLAND 25.5
NEW PREDATOR (AUS) 19
FRENCH NAVY 18.5
WIND CHILL 18.5
BRAZUCA (AUS) 15
PAGODA 15
CROWD PLEASER 14
CORAL FEVER 14
SOCIAL ORDER 14
FORT EMBER 11
MASTER SWITCH 11
LIEGE 11
LET IT RAIN 11
TILBURY FORT 7
MAC DE LAGO (AUS) 1.3
ABISHIRI -2

* Distance suited and draw not accounted for
Positive adjustments on diistance would be Liege,
crowd pleaser, brazuca, French Navy , maybe Girl On
The Run and Hermoso Mundo

ADAMS – FORECAST ODDS SUMMER CUP

MASTER SABINA 6/1
GIRL ON THE RUN '15/2
HERMOSO MUNDO 8/1
ORCHID ISLAND 12/1
NEW PREDATOR (AUS) '16/1
FRENCH NAVY '17/1
WIND CHILL '17/1
BRAZUCA (AUS) '21/1
PAGODA '21/1
CROWD PLEASER '22/1
CORAL FEVER '22/1
SOCIAL ORDER '22/1
FORT EMBER '30/1
MASTER SWITCH '30/1
LIEGE '30/1
LET IT RAIN '30/1
TILBURY FORT '46/1
MAC DE LAGO (AUS) '250/1
ABISHIRI '325/1

By observing the variations between this forecast and the actual open and starting bettting - one will gget a good idea of stable confidence, inside money, and more. Market trading will give you

ORCHID ISLAND
PAGODA
WIND CHILL
CROWD PLEASER
ABISHIRI

The non-running of Nother Russia in this race, suggests that we may witness the rise of another Superstar de Kock filly in this race.

Adams wrote: I won't be betting on this race for the reasons already given, plus the probable rain. - but

Summer Cup : Girl On The Run – Classy, but may be on the sharp side for her. Hermoso Mundo definitely in contention – July Winner but for objection , possibly also just at the lower end of range. Orchard Island – we haven’t the seen the best of her. Brazuca will keep everything honest in this race and at this trip. Crowd Pleaser will be a tough nut to crack at this trip. I am looking for a mighty run from Liege. I imagine Crowd Pleaser and Liege fighting this out from Orchid island , Brazuca, and French Navy in the shake up with Girl On The Run, Master Sabina and Hermoso Mundo finishing strongly

Huh :ohmy:

@ Adams, Mac's bucket shop also has Abashiri as the rank outsider :ohmy: And your 2nd favourite is the bucket shop's favourite Girl On The Run at 9/2

Frodo wrote:

Adams wrote: I won't be betting on this race for the reasons already given, plus the probable rain. - but

Summer Cup : Girl On The Run – Classy, but may be on the sharp side for her. Hermoso Mundo definitely in contention – July Winner but for objection , possibly also just at the lower end of range. Orchard Island – we haven’t the seen the best of her. Brazuca will keep everything honest in this race and at this trip. Crowd Pleaser will be a tough nut to crack at this trip. I am looking for a mighty run from Liege. I imagine Crowd Pleaser and Liege fighting this out from Orchid island , Brazuca, and French Navy in the shake up with Girl On The Run, Master Sabina and Hermoso Mundo finishing strongly

apologies - must have been the late hour, was thinking of the stable companion Wylie Hall -- my sincere apologies and thanks for picking that up.

Huh :ohmy:

Mac wrote: @ Adams, Mac's bucket shop also has Abashiri as the rank outsider :ohmy: And your 2nd favourite is the bucket shop's favourite Girl On The Run at 9/2

Abashiri is undoubtedly a great horse - and as mentioned in one of the interviews could potentially come good on the day like Louis The King. Aiming for challenges like the Triple Crown will basically put an end to most horses careers - and unfortunately Abashiri's performances this season and last have not warranted much optimism - that he too has suffered the fate of many horses pushed to those limits. But there is strong support for him in the official markets