This Idiot Looks At The July

Press wrote: Thank you Garrick,

This is what racing is about! Thank you for sharing this with us bud!

Sadly, I must agree that not many race goers on the day will even know there's horses involved.

Last year, a dumb ass celebrity who was interviewed on TV for the MET was asked "What do you fancy in the main race?"

To which she replied "I didn't even know there's horse racing, I am just here for the party..."

Garrick wrote: The July! There was a time when it was quite an event. Nowadays I wonder whether most of the population even knows or cares whilst all the World Cup excitement is on the go.

Nevertheless - at 16:20 on Saturday a group of 18 quite ordinary horses will contest a race over a course that looks less and less like a Grade 1 venue with each passing year.

So let's have a light hearted look at the multitude of ways in which you can do your money without even trying too hard.

The first question you should be asking is this : Why on earth would I be wanting to have a bet on this race?

The only valid reason I can advance is this : It's one of the few occasions that you can actually get on without limits or restrictions!

Outside of that reason punters appear to gain some sort of bizarre satisfaction by being able to claim that they found a July winner.

This is one meeting I am happy to sit back and watch with nil or minimal financial involvement. But that doesn't stop me from having an opinion! So here is mine :

I always start my evaluation by turning the betting upside down. As I work through the field my appetite decreases in direct proportion to the price of the runner in question. By the time I reach the favourites I have already made a selection or given up. So let's look at this bunch on that basis :

Reserve Runners:

Let's hope there are no late scratchings because Crowd Pleaser has shown enough to suggest that, if he were to make the lineup, he could send punters home less than happy! The mind boggles.

Secret Potion (40/1) : I can think of worse bets at 40/1. Decent trainer, will get the trip & others drawn worse. Perhaps her relative immaturity & first visit to Greyville might be the biggest negatives.

Star Express (40/1) : Top trainer, right pedigree & boasts a win over the ruling favourite. My reservation is whether she really gets 2200m. Race will tell. At least she won't get panel beaten with Domeyer riding.

Rocket Countdown (35/1) : A little imagination required here but consider this : This horse has been beaten in both of its last two starts by an animal that may well be the 'next big thing' in SA racing. Good trainer, decent draw. I battle with the concept that a gelding by Alado out of a Cordoba mare could win a July but stranger things have happened.

Gold Standard (33/1) : Not for me. Talked up on so many occasions. Form certainly not bad but always seems to fall a pound or three short of delivering.

Liege (30/1) : One gets the impression that the Summer Cup surprise might well be the highpoint of this horse's career. I'll take it on the chin if this wins.

Fiorella (28/1) : I usually draw a line through any Captain Al horse contesting a July. (Has a Captain Al ever won a July?) The Caesour mare hardly adds to the 2200m credentials. Then we have the matter of Durban horses where we need to go back decades to find the last local winner.

Yet this filly makes enormous appeal. Consider this - Oh Susanna won the Met and beat African Night Sky at WFA terms. Fiorella went down by ,5l to the Met winner at levels over 2000m. She boasts a good trainer, jockey & decent draw. Perhaps her age might be against her. At 28/1 you can hardly do damage.

Coral Fever (28/1) : Apart from the 60kg there is a lot to like about this horse. Enough said.

Yakeen (25/1) : Quite difficult to assess. I would go with the Teofilo breeding before many of the local breds although I am wondering if the preparation has been ideal. Was all out to win the Jubilee but that race has historically been an an excellent pointer to the July.

I am reluctantly playing against this one only because Tilbury Fort may have it on the weight turnaround. Distance of the race remains the unresolved issue between these two.

Matador Man (22/1) : There is a school of thought that rates this horse a huge runner. Not for me as I cannot have a Toreador winning the July. To date this horse provides no evidence of getting the trip. Throw in tardy behaviour at the stalls and a recent report of coughing & you have the perfect recipe for doing your money in cold.

Dark Moon Rising (18/1) : With respect - I think this horse should have been entered for the earlier consolation race; which I believe it could have won. I have not seen enough on its CV to believe it capable of winning a July. Which is a pity because I am particularly well disposed towards Ideal World.

Tilbury Fort (18/1) : Hard knocker. All you need to work out is whether the hype exceeds his ability or not. I have no opinion either way. Utmost respect.

Elusive Silva (12/1) : I'll pass on a horse with a history of respiratory noise, hanging & leg changing. Apparently likes Greyville. I'll take as much 1/3 as I can get that it will get a solid thrashing from the panel beater booked to ride it.

Majestic Mambo (10/1) : Hard not to fancy this one a bit. Also hard to ignore starting issues and 'distress' reports.

Abashiri (10/1) : Could be a July fairy tale in the making. Definitely lurking. Decent draw and jockey.

Made To Conquer (9/1) : You could almost like this runner until you note the jockey. Before we wax lyrical over Jeff let's just reflect that he has been beaten on every July runner he has ridden to date. So the racecard should reflect 'Carries 53kg + Lloyd + wheelchair.

If you connect the dots he might be a gilt edged place bet. Hopefully he will cause minimal interference in the straight.

White River (9/1) : I first latched onto this one when he came from tailed off last to run second to Rocket Countdown in the Selangor in November 2017 @ 20/1. Unfortunately he has continued to do just that without ever hitting the net. Now minus his gonads I will feel seriously deprived if he chooses Saturday to romp home.

My reservations stem from his inability to convince over this kind of distance to date.

Do It Again (6/1) : Maybe. Maybe not. But certainly not with my money at 6/1!

African Night Sky (22/10) : If ever you needed a good reason not to have a bet then this is it. You are not really going to be conned into taking 22/10 against 17 very 'alive' rivals? Get a reality check. Without too much effort you can probably find half a dozen opportunities between now & Saturday on horses at this same price up against (at most) two real competitors. And you want to take on 17 at 22/10?

In all honesty I think some of the shorter priced runners are really dodge. There are a disturbing number of 'wheezers' and tardy starters.

Upon reflection it's a pretty average bunch contesting a weirdly constituted handicap. Not a bona fide Grade 1 by any stretch of the imagination.